AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Championship
CharltonCharltonDLDDL
Full time1-3Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1012:30UK
NorwichNorwichLLLLL

Charlton 1-3 Norwich cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined52.8%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined47.2%

Result

Charlton1-3Norwich
6 yellow cardsCharlton 4, Norwich 2
0 red cardsCharlton 0, Norwich 0
Over 3.5No

We called Over 3.5 at 52.8% and it landed (6 in the match). We called No at 91.7% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards52.8%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

John Busby

Recorded match referee.

John Busby in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 203 6
Goals 2.54 3.83
Yellow cards 3.36 4.00
Red cards 0.08 0.00
Corners 10.3 12.5
Fouls 21.6 23.2
Both teams scored 52% 100%
Over 2.5 goals 47% 83%
Home wins 38% 17%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Charlton vs Norwich 1-3 4 Yes 6 0 10 23
13 Oct 2026 Cardiff vs Watford 5-1 6 Yes 5 0 7 24
19 Sep 2026 Portsmouth vs Blackburn 2-2 4 Yes 3 0 16 25
12 Sep 2026 Derby vs Birmingham 1-2 3 Yes 4 0 14 20
29 Aug 2026 Cardiff vs Sheffield United 2-2 4 Yes 4 0 15 23
22 Aug 2026 Wrexham vs Watford 1-1 2 Yes 2 0 13 24
25 Apr 2026 QPR vs Derby 2-3 5 Yes 4 0 16 20
18 Apr 2026 Watford vs Sheffield United 0-2 2 No 6 0 13 20
11 Apr 2026 Charlton vs Preston 1-2 3 Yes 5 0 11 14
3 Apr 2026 Birmingham vs Blackburn 0-1 1 No 1 0 19 21

John Busby referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Charlton vs Norwich. It tips Norwich for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 73.2% 26.8%
3.5 cards 52.8% 47.2%
4.5 cards 33.3% 66.7%
5.5 cards 18.5% 81.5%

Who picks up more cards

Charlton
34.6%
Level
21.1%
Norwich
44.3%

Team cards lines

Charlton

Over 1.5
53.2%
Over 2.5
26.4%

Norwich

Over 1.5
60.1%
Over 2.5
33.0%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Charlton's; Norwich gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Charlton line Charlton Norwich
-1.5 17.7% 82.3%
-0.5 34.6% 65.4%
+0.5 55.8% 44.3%
+1.5 75.0% 25.0%

Red card

Any red card8.3%
Charlton red card2.9%
Norwich red card5.5%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 62.3% 37.7%
22.5 fouls 46.7% 53.3%
24.5 fouls 32.1% 67.9%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Charlton A Kitchen 2 3.5 2.0
Charlton T Reeves 2 2.5 1.5
Norwich A Kitchen 2 3.0 1.5

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 11,337 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 52.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 73.2% for over 2.5 to 18.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 52.8%. Between the two sides, Norwich are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.3%, with a level count at 21.1%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Charlton over 1.5 cards sits at 53.2% and Norwich at 60.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 8.3% (Charlton 2.9%, Norwich 5.5%). Charlton’s most frequent referee this season, A Kitchen, has averaged 3.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

52.8%Over 3.5 cards
8.3%Any red card
44.3%Most cards: Norwich
53.2%Charlton over 1.5 cards
60.1%Norwich over 1.5 cards
46.7%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 52.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherA Kitchen, Charlton’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 8.3%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianNorwich are the pick to collect more cards at 44.3%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.

FAQ

How many cards in Charlton vs Norwich?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 52.8% for Charlton vs Norwich.
Will there be a red card in Charlton vs Norwich?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 8.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Charlton vs Norwich?
Before kickoff, the model rated Norwich to pick up more cards at 44.3%, with a level count at 21.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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ChampionshipCharlton fixtures and statsNorwich fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.