AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 16 Oct 2026

Championship
CharltonCharltonDLDDL
Full time1-1Sat, 10 Oct 202610/1012:30UK
Bristol CityBristol CityWWLLW

Charlton 1-1 Bristol City corners: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined56.7%
Under 9.5 cornersBoth teams combined43.3%

Result

Charlton1-1Bristol City
10 cornersCharlton 5, Bristol City 5
Over 9.5

We called Over 9.5 at 56.7% and it landed (10 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 9.5 corners56.7%

Corners

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges Charlton.

Total corners

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 78.7% 21.3%
8.5 corners 68.3% 31.8%
9.5 corners 56.7% 43.3%
10.5 corners 44.9% 55.1%
11.5 corners 34.0% 66.0%
12.5 corners 24.6% 75.4%

Who wins the corner count

Charlton
53.1%
Level
10.5%
Bristol City
36.4%

Team corners lines

Charlton

Over 3.5
76.6%
Over 4.5
62.0%
Over 5.5
46.8%

Bristol City

Over 3.5
66.5%
Over 4.5
49.7%
Over 5.5
34.3%

Corner handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Charlton's; Bristol City gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Charlton line Charlton Bristol City
-1.5 42.4% 57.6%
-0.5 53.1% 46.9%
+0.5 63.6% 36.4%
+1.5 73.1% 26.9%
CharltonCharlton

Corner trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Charlton at home and Bristol City away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

Bristol CityBristol City
Statistic
Charlton
Bristol City
Corners won per game at this venue
6.0
4.5

Corners conceded per game at this venue
6.3
4.8

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0095Calibration error
50,938Matches graded

In 24,028 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Corners calls

Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 55.9%✓ 52.1%✓ 53.5%✓ 50.6%✓ 53.9%✗ 51.1%✗ 50.7%✗ 58.3%✓ 55.7%✗ 59.5%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Under 9.5 55.9%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Over 9.5 52.1%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.5%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Under 9.5 50.6%Hit
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Under 9.5 53.9%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 56.7%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 78.7% for over 7.5 to 24.6% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.9%. Head to head on corners, Charlton are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 53.1%, with a level count at 10.5%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Charlton over 4.5 corners sits at 62.0% and Bristol City at 49.7%. This season Charlton have averaged 4.4 corners won a game and Bristol City 5.3.

These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. We score every call against the result after the match.

56.7%Over 9.5 corners
53.1%Most corners: Charlton
62.0%Charlton over 4.5 corners
49.7%Bristol City over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 56.7% on Corners. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Territory ReaderCharlton are the pick to win the corner count at 53.1%, the count usually goes the way of the side doing the attacking.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 10.5 corners: over sits at 44.9%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
CharltonCharlton

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

Bristol CityBristol City
Statistic
Charlton
Bristol City
corners won per game
4.4
5.3

corners conceded per game
6.4
5.5

Bar scales · Corners per game: 0–10. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many corners in Charlton vs Bristol City?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 56.7% for Charlton vs Bristol City.
Which team will win the corner count in Charlton vs Bristol City?
Before kickoff, the model rated Charlton to win the corner count at 53.1%, with a level count at 10.5%.
How many corners do Charlton and Bristol City average this season?
Charlton have won 4.4 corners a game this season and Bristol City 5.3.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

ChampionshipCharlton fixtures and statsBristol City fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.