Segunda DivisiónCelta B vs Castellon Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 77.7% and it landed (4 in the match). We called No at 81.8% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 77.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 90.0% for over 2.5 to 44.1% for over 5.5, with over 5.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.1%. Head to head on cards, Castellon are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.6%, with a level count at 17.7%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 90.0% | 10.0% |
| 3.5 cards | 77.7% | 22.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 61.4% | 38.6% |
| 5.5 cards | 44.1% | 56.0% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
73.6%
48.6%
75.2%
50.8%
Card handicap
| Celta B line | Celta B | Castellon |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23.9% | 76.1% |
| -0.5 | 39.6% | 60.4% |
| +0.5 | 57.4% | 42.6% |
| +1.5 | 73.6% | 26.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 87.2% | 12.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 78.2% | 21.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 66.8% | 33.2% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Celta B vs Castellon. Slightly more cards are projected for Castellon for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
77.7%Over 3.5 cards18.2%Any red card73.6%Celta B over 1.5 cards75.2%Castellon over 1.5 cards78.2%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Celta B over 1.5 cards sits at 73.6% and Castellon at 75.2%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.2% (Celta B 5.2%, Castellon 13.7%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Celta B vs Castellon?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 77.7% for Celta B vs Castellon.
Will there be a red card in Celta B vs Castellon?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 18.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Celta B vs Castellon?
Before kickoff, the model rated Castellon to pick up more cards at 42.6%, with a level count at 17.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,372 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Segunda División, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.