Segunda División
Girona vs Castellon Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 75.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 88.8% for over 2.5 to 41.2% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 58.7%. Between the two sides, Castellon are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.7%, with a level count at 18.0%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 88.8% | 11.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 75.6% | 24.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 41.2% | 58.9% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
71.8%
46.3%
73.8%
48.9%
Card handicap
| Girona line | Girona | Castellon |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23.4% | 76.6% |
| -0.5 | 39.2% | 60.8% |
| +0.5 | 57.3% | 42.7% |
| +1.5 | 73.8% | 26.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 84.4% | 15.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 74.2% | 25.8% |
| 24.5 fouls | 61.9% | 38.1% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Girona vs Castellon. Slightly more cards are projected for Castellon for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
75.6%Over 3.5 cards24.3%Any red card71.8%Girona over 1.5 cards73.8%Castellon over 1.5 cards74.2%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Girona over 1.5 cards sits at 71.8% and Castellon at 73.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 24.3% (Girona 4.2%, Castellon 21.0%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Girona vs Castellon?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 75.6% for Girona vs Castellon.
Will there be a red card in Girona vs Castellon?
The model rates a red card for either side at 24.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Girona vs Castellon?
The model rates Castellon to pick up more cards at 42.7%, with a level count at 18.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,372 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Segunda División, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.