Celta B vs Castellon: model prediction
Segunda DivisiónOver 1.5 goals
Draw or Castellon
Over 8.5 corners
Full time10 of 11 calls right
Our most likely call was Castellon at 48.9%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 50.2% and it landed (3 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 75.4% and it landed (3 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 71.8% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 53.4% and it landed. We called Yes at 60.2% and it landed. We called Yes at 85.1% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 51.8% and it landed (6 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 77.7% and it landed (4 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 50.8% and it missed (25 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 64.4% and it landed (9 shots on target). We called No at 81.8% and it landed.
| Match data | Celta B | Castellon |
|---|---|---|
| Goals, 1st half | 0 | 1 |
| Goals, 2nd half | 1 | 1 |
| Shots | 12 | 13 |
| Shots on target | 4 | 5 |
| Corners | 3 | 3 |
| Yellow cards | 1 | 3 |
| Red cards | 0 | 0 |
| Fouls | 11 | 10 |
Final match data.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Celta B versus Castellon on 31 August 2026 tilts towards Castellon in our numbers (49%), with plenty left over for the other outcomes. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Worth knowing: bookmakers rate Castellon higher (54%) than our model does. 2) Totals sit close to the fence: 50% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 53%. 3) Celta B are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The run in: Celta B arrive W1 D1 L0, Castellon W3 D3 L0. Discipline says sit it out: conservative EV -0.022 <= 0.
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
25.1%+3.6%
26.1%+1.5%
48.9%-5.0%
conservative EV -0.022 <= 0
Goals markets
Strong chance
Good chance
Good chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
League averages this season: 2.27 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 41% · BTTS in 41%. Full league tables & stats →
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 76.4% | Over 7.5 | 64.4% | Over 8.5 | 51.5% | Over 9.5 | 38.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Celta B | 47.1% | Most: Castellon | 39.8% | ||||
| Celta B Over 4.2 | 47.2% | Castellon Over 4.2 | 42.0% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 90.0% | Over 3.5 | 77.7% | Over 4.5 | 61.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Celta B | 39.6% | Most: Castellon | 42.6% | ||
| Celta B Over 1.8 | 73.6% | Castellon Over 1.8 | 75.2% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Celta B clean sheet | 20.1% |
|---|---|
| Castellon clean sheet | 33.7% |
| Celta B win to nil | 12.7% |
| Castellon win to nil | 26.3% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 25.1% | draw | 26.1% | away | 48.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 51.1% | 12 | 73.9% | X2 | 74.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 33.9% | away | 66.1% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 53.4% | no | 46.6% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 20.1% | away | 33.9% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 12.7% | away | 26.5% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 15.3% | home_by_2 | 6.9% | home_by_3plus | 2.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 23.0% | away_by_2 | 15.1% | away_by_3plus | 10.8% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 7.4% | 0-1 | 10.4% | 0-2 | 8.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 4.7% | 0-4 | 1.9% | 0-5 | 0.6% |
| 1-0 | 6.8% | 1-1 | 12.4% | 1-2 | 9.5% |
| 1-3 | 5.1% | 1-4 | 2.0% | 1-5 | 0.7% |
| 2-0 | 4.0% | 2-1 | 6.4% | 2-2 | 5.1% |
| 2-3 | 2.7% | 2-4 | 1.1% | 2-5 | 0.4% |
| 3-0 | 1.4% | 3-1 | 2.3% | 3-2 | 1.8% |
| 3-3 | 1.0% | 3-4 | 0.4% | 3-5 | 0.1% |
| 4-0 | 0.4% | 4-1 | 0.6% | 4-2 | 0.5% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.1% | 5-1 | 0.1% | 5-2 | 0.1% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.7% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 100.0% | p | 12.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 92.6% | under_0.5 | 7.4% | over_1.5 | 75.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 24.6% | over_2.5 | 50.2% | under_2.5 | 49.8% |
| over_3.5 | 28.2% | under_3.5 | 71.8% | over_4.5 | 13.5% |
| under_4.5 | 86.5% | over_5.5 | 5.6% | under_5.5 | 94.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.6% | even | 51.4% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 66.1% | under_0.5 | 33.9% | over_1.5 | 29.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 70.6% | over_2.5 | 9.6% | under_2.5 | 90.4% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 79.9% | under_0.5 | 20.1% | over_1.5 | 47.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 52.4% | over_2.5 | 21.7% | under_2.5 | 78.3% |
most
| home | 25.1% | draw | 26.1% | away | 48.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 2.9% | away_+2.5 | 97.1% | home_-1.5 | 9.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 90.3% | home_-0.5 | 25.1% | away_+0.5 | 74.9% |
| home_+0.5 | 51.1% | away_-0.5 | 48.9% | home_+1.5 | 74.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 25.9% | home_+2.5 | 89.2% | away_-2.5 | 10.8% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 7.4% | exact_1 | 17.1% | exact_2 | 25.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 22.0% | exact_4 | 14.8% | exact_5 | 7.9% |
| exact_6 | 3.6% | exact_7plus | 2.0% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 22.9% | draw | 48.7% | away | 28.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 60.2% | under_0.5 | 39.9% | over_1.5 | 23.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 76.5% | over_2.5 | 6.6% | under_2.5 | 93.4% |
btts
| yes | 13.5% | no | 86.5% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 39.9% | exact_1 | 36.7% | exact_2 | 16.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 5.2% | exact_4plus | 1.5% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 45.9% | draw | 30.8% | away | 23.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 85.1% | under_0.5 | 14.9% | over_1.5 | 56.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 43.2% | over_2.5 | 29.8% | under_2.5 | 70.2% |
btts
| yes | 36.0% | no | 64.0% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 18.3% | H/D | 3.3% | H/A | 1.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 22.4% | D/D | 15.0% | D/A | 11.4% |
| A/H | 4.8% | A/D | 6.5% | A/A | 17.2% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 72.4% | under_7.5 | 27.6% | over_8.5 | 60.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 39.4% | over_9.5 | 48.2% | under_9.5 | 51.8% |
| over_10.5 | 36.5% | under_10.5 | 63.5% | over_11.5 | 26.3% |
| under_11.5 | 73.7% | over_12.5 | 18.0% | under_12.5 | 82.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 69.9% | under_3.5 | 30.1% | over_4.5 | 53.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 46.4% | over_5.5 | 38.1% | under_5.5 | 61.9% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 64.4% | under_3.5 | 35.6% | over_4.5 | 47.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 52.7% | over_5.5 | 32.0% | under_5.5 | 68.0% |
most
| home | 48.6% | draw | 11.1% | away | 40.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 19.2% | away_+3.5 | 80.8% | home_-1.5 | 37.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 62.4% | home_-0.5 | 48.6% | away_+0.5 | 51.4% |
| home_+0.5 | 59.7% | away_-0.5 | 40.3% | home_+1.5 | 70.1% |
| away_-1.5 | 29.9% | home_+3.5 | 86.1% | away_-3.5 | 14.0% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 62.1% | under_22.5 | 37.9% | over_24.5 | 49.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 50.8% | over_26.5 | 36.8% | under_26.5 | 63.2% |
| over_28.5 | 25.9% | under_28.5 | 74.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 69.2% | under_10.5 | 30.8% | over_12.5 | 51.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 48.4% | over_14.5 | 34.8% | under_14.5 | 65.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 58.2% | under_10.5 | 41.8% | over_12.5 | 39.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 60.4% | over_14.5 | 24.1% | under_14.5 | 75.9% |
most
| home | 55.2% | draw | 6.4% | away | 38.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 30.0% | away_+4.5 | 70.0% | home_-2.5 | 42.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 57.8% | home_-0.5 | 55.2% | away_+0.5 | 44.8% |
| home_+0.5 | 61.6% | away_-0.5 | 38.4% | home_+2.5 | 73.3% |
| away_-2.5 | 26.7% | home_+4.5 | 82.9% | away_-4.5 | 17.1% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 76.4% | under_6.5 | 23.6% | over_7.5 | 64.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 35.6% | over_8.5 | 51.5% | under_8.5 | 48.5% |
| over_9.5 | 38.9% | under_9.5 | 61.1% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 65.4% | under_3.5 | 34.6% | over_4.5 | 47.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 52.8% | over_5.5 | 30.9% | under_5.5 | 69.1% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 60.7% | under_3.5 | 39.3% | over_4.5 | 42.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 58.0% | over_5.5 | 26.2% | under_5.5 | 73.8% |
most
| home | 47.1% | draw | 13.1% | away | 39.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 23.2% | away_+2.5 | 76.8% | home_-0.5 | 47.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 52.9% | home_+0.5 | 60.2% | away_-0.5 | 39.8% |
| home_+2.5 | 82.0% | away_-2.5 | 18.0% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 90.0% | under_2.5 | 10.0% | over_3.5 | 77.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 22.3% | over_4.5 | 61.4% | under_4.5 | 38.6% |
| over_5.5 | 44.1% | under_5.5 | 56.0% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 73.6% | under_1.5 | 26.4% | over_2.5 | 48.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 51.4% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 75.2% | under_1.5 | 24.8% | over_2.5 | 50.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 49.2% |
most
| home | 39.6% | draw | 17.7% | away | 42.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 23.9% | away_+1.5 | 76.1% | home_-0.5 | 39.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 60.4% | home_+0.5 | 57.4% | away_-0.5 | 42.6% |
| home_+1.5 | 73.6% | away_-1.5 | 26.4% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 87.2% | under_20.5 | 12.8% | over_22.5 | 78.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 21.8% | over_24.5 | 66.8% | under_24.5 | 33.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 83.4% | under_9.5 | 16.7% | over_11.5 | 67.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 32.3% | over_13.5 | 49.4% | under_13.5 | 50.6% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 83.2% | under_9.5 | 16.8% | over_11.5 | 67.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 32.5% | over_13.5 | 49.1% | under_13.5 | 50.9% |
most
| home | 46.9% | draw | 6.6% | away | 46.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 28.3% | away_+3.5 | 71.7% | home_-0.5 | 46.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 53.1% | home_+2.5 | 66.2% | away_-2.5 | 33.8% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 18.2% | no | 81.8% |
|---|
home
| yes | 5.2% | no | 94.8% |
|---|
away
| yes | 13.7% | no | 86.3% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Celta B predictions · Castellon predictions · Segunda División
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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