Lyon vs Auxerre prediction & probabilities (2026-09-04)

By /

Lyon vs Auxerre: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 31 Aug 2026

Ligue 1
Lyon

WWLLW

Full time3-1Fri, 4 Sep 202618:00UK35°C · Clear
Auxerre

LWWWL

Model’s top convictions

79%

Lyon or draw

78%

Over 1.5 goals

61%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time9 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Lyon 3-1 Auxerre
✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✓ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✓ Over 3.5 cards✕ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
10 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Lyon at 55.2%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 54.0% and it landed (4 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 78.1% and it landed (4 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 68.3% and it missed (4 goals). We called Yes at 54.7% and it landed. We called Yes at 68.1% and it landed. We called Yes at 81.9% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 51.1% and it landed (14 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 56.8% and it landed (4 yellow cards). We called Under 24.5 at 51.7% and it missed (29 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 64.3% and it landed (10 shots on target). We called No at 68.7% and it landed.

Match data Lyon Auxerre
Goals, 1st half 2 1
Goals, 2nd half 1 0
Shots 21 8
Shots, 1st half 10 2
Shots, 2nd half 11 6
Shots on target 7 3
Corners 9 5
Yellow cards 2 2
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 11 8
Expected goals (xG) 2.88 0.91

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
LyonWin probability
55.2%
Top 3 convictions

Lyon or draw78.8%High probabilityPays @ 1.27
Over 1.5 goals78.1%High probabilityPays @ 1.28
Over 8.5 corners60.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.65

Model read

▾

"When model and market disagree on Lyon, that gap is the story." The numbers leave little room for romance here: Lyon at 55% against Auxerre, Ligue 1, 4 September 2026. No strong lean on goals (54% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 2 wins for Lyon, 2 draws and 1 for Auxerre, averaging 3.2 goals a game. For shots markets, Endrick is the obvious watch at 1.8 on target per 90 in recent data. The run in: Lyon arrive W4 D0 L2, Auxerre W3 D1 L2. One eye on the skies, with 35 degrees of heat in the forecast. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Draw or Auxerre44.8%@ 2.23
Over 10.5 corners39.5%@ 2.53
Over 11.5 corners30.3%@ 3.30
Medium risk

Both teams to score54.7%@ 1.83
Over 2.5 goals54.0%@ 1.85
Over 9.5 corners49.8%@ 2.01
Random finds

1-1 correct score11.5%@ 8.67
1-0 correct score9.9%@ 10.10
2-1 correct score9.8%@ 10.18

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Lyon

55.2%

Draw

23.6%

Auxerre

21.2%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.578.1%

High probability

Over 2.554.0%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes54.7%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.560.5%

Strong chance

Over 9.549.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.539.5%

Toss-up

Over 11.530.3%

Toss-up

Most cornersLyon57.2%Auxerre32.2%

Shots markets

Over 22.561.0%

Strong chance

Over 24.548.3%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.536.1%

Toss-up

Over 28.525.5%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.578.1%2.554.0%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.578.1%

Before kick-off this match stood as Our price. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

LyonWWLLW
AuxerreLWWWL

Last 5 meetings: Lyon 2 · 2 draws · Auxerre 1 · 3.2 goals/game.

2026-04-25Lyon 3-2 Auxerre
2025-11-23Auxerre 0-0 Lyon
2025-04-13Auxerre 1-3 Lyon
2024-10-27Lyon 2-2 Auxerre
2023-02-17Auxerre 2-1 Lyon

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

LyonAuxerre
League position#4 of 18#17 of 18
Record W-D-L1-0-00-0-1
Current streakW1L1
Record, home vs away·0-0-1
Red cards this season01

Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

EndrickLyon · key player
To score26.8%

@ 3.73

1+ on target79.0%

@ 1.27

2+ shots81.0%

@ 1.23

Shots/90 3.53SoT/90 1.8Goals/90 0.36
Theo BairAuxerre · key player
To score6.7%

@ 14.93

1+ on target33.8%

@ 2.96

2+ shots20.1%

@ 4.98

Shots/90 2.75SoT/90 1.37Goals/90 0.23
Georges MikautadzeLyon · in form
To score30.4%

@ 3.29

1+ on target54.6%

@ 1.83

2+ shots50.6%

@ 1.98

Shots/90 3.74SoT/90 1.74Goals/90 0.8
Ado OnaiwuAuxerre · in form
To score12.9%

@ 7.75

1+ on target29.1%

@ 3.44

2+ shots10.6%

@ 9.43

Shots/90 1.92SoT/90 1.2Goals/90 0.48
Alexandre LacazetteLyon · in form
To score41.6%

@ 2.40

1+ on target71.4%

@ 1.40

2+ shots58.4%

@ 1.71

Shots/90 2.59SoT/90 1.65Goals/90 0.71
Hamed Junior TraoreAuxerre · in form
To score32.1%

@ 3.12

1+ on target64.7%

@ 1.55

2+ shots74.2%

@ 1.35

Shots/90 2.88SoT/90 1.13Goals/90 0.42

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Lyon win1.85
Draw4.11
Auxerre win4.63
Both teams to score1.83

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.28
Over 2.5 goals1.85
Over 3.5 goals3.15
Lyon most1.85
Auxerre most4.63

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.34
Over 8.5 corners1.58
Over 9.5 corners1.96
Over 10.5 corners2.54
Lyon most1.74
Auxerre most3.10

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.31
Over 3.5 cards1.76
Over 4.5 cards2.68
Over 5.5 cards4.63
Lyon most3.08
Auxerre most2.12

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.32
Over 7.5 SoT1.56
Over 8.5 SoT1.92
Over 9.5 SoT2.50
Lyon most1.73
Auxerre most3.29

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.64
Over 24.5 shots2.07
Over 26.5 shots2.77
Over 28.5 shots3.93
Lyon most1.61
Auxerre most3.13

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.24
Over 22.5 fouls1.45
Over 24.5 fouls1.80
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 75.8% Over 7.5 64.3% Over 8.5 52.0% Over 9.5 40.1%
Most: Lyon 57.8% Most: Auxerre 30.4%
Lyon Over 4.2 54.7% Auxerre Over 4.2 34.7%

Cards

Over 2.5 76.3% Over 3.5 56.8% Over 4.5 37.3%
Most: Lyon 32.4% Most: Auxerre 47.2%
Lyon Over 1.8 54.1% Auxerre Over 1.8 64.4%

Lyon: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Endrick 3.53 1.8 0.36 79.0% 81.0% 26.8%
Georges Mikautadze 3.74 1.74 0.8 54.6% 50.6% 30.4%
Alexandre Lacazette 2.59 1.65 0.71 71.4% 58.4% 41.6%
Ernest Nuamah 2.72 1.22 0.28 41.8% 34.0% 11.7%
Pavel Sulc 2.54 0.98 0.58 46.7% 48.6% 31.1%

Auxerre: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Theo Bair 2.75 1.37 0.23 33.8% 20.1% 6.7%
Ado Onaiwu 1.92 1.2 0.48 29.1% 10.6% 12.9%
Hamed Junior Traore 2.88 1.13 0.42 64.7% 74.2% 32.1%
Lassine Sinayoko 2.75 1.02 0.31 58.3% 68.2% 23.3%
Gaetan Perrin 1.95 0.91 0.35 55.8% 52.2% 27.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Lyon clean sheet 34.6%
Auxerre clean sheet 16.7%
Lyon win to nil 28.2%
Auxerre win to nil 10.3%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 54.1% draw 24.3% away 21.6%
double_chance
1X 78.4% 12 75.7% X2 45.9%
dnb
home 71.5% away 28.5%
btts
yes 54.7% no 45.3%
clean_sheet
home 35.0% away 16.7%
win_to_nil
home 28.6% away 10.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.3% home_by_2 16.8% home_by_3plus 14.0%
away_by_1 13.5% away_by_2 5.8% away_by_3plus 2.3%
correct_score
0-0 6.4% 0-1 5.6% 0-2 3.2%
0-3 1.1% 0-4 0.3% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 9.9% 1-1 11.5% 1-2 5.8%
1-3 2.0% 1-4 0.5% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.4% 2-1 9.8% 2-2 5.2%
2-3 1.8% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 5.6% 3-1 5.9% 3-2 3.1%
3-3 1.1% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 2.5% 4-1 2.6% 4-2 1.4%
4-3 0.5% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.9% 5-1 0.9% 5-2 0.5%
5-3 0.2% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.1%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 11.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 93.6% under_0.5 6.4% over_1.5 78.1%
under_1.5 21.9% over_2.5 54.0% under_2.5 46.0%
over_3.5 31.7% under_3.5 68.3% over_4.5 15.9%
under_4.5 84.1% over_5.5 6.9% under_5.5 93.1%
odd_even
odd 48.7% even 51.3%
team_home
over_0.5 83.3% under_0.5 16.7% over_1.5 53.4%
under_1.5 46.6% over_2.5 26.6% under_2.5 73.4%
team_away
over_0.5 65.0% under_0.5 35.0% over_1.5 28.3%
under_1.5 71.7% over_2.5 9.0% under_2.5 91.0%
most
home 54.1% draw 24.3% away 21.6%
handicap
home_-2.5 14.0% away_+2.5 86.0% home_-1.5 30.8%
away_+1.5 69.2% home_-0.5 54.1% away_+0.5 45.9%
home_+0.5 78.4% away_-0.5 21.6% home_+1.5 91.9%
away_-1.5 8.1% home_+2.5 97.7% away_-2.5 2.3%
total_exact
exact_0 6.4% exact_1 15.5% exact_2 24.1%
exact_3 22.3% exact_4 15.8% exact_5 9.0%
exact_6 4.3% exact_7plus 2.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 35.1% draw 42.8% away 22.1%
total
over_0.5 68.1% under_0.5 31.9% over_1.5 31.7%
under_1.5 68.3% over_2.5 10.8% under_2.5 89.2%
btts
yes 18.4% no 81.6%
total_exact
exact_0 31.9% exact_1 36.4% exact_2 20.8%
exact_3 7.9% exact_4plus 2.9%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 50.2% draw 31.8% away 18.0%
total
over_0.5 81.9% under_0.5 18.2% over_1.5 50.9%
under_1.5 49.1% over_2.5 24.4% under_2.5 75.6%
btts
yes 29.2% no 70.8%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 30.2% H/D 3.7% H/A 1.1%
D/H 21.5% D/D 13.6% D/A 7.7%
A/H 4.2% A/D 5.6% A/A 12.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 74.4% under_7.5 25.6% over_8.5 63.1%
under_8.5 36.9% over_9.5 51.1% under_9.5 48.9%
over_10.5 39.4% under_10.5 60.6% over_11.5 29.0%
under_11.5 71.0% over_12.5 20.3% under_12.5 79.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 75.9% under_3.5 24.1% over_4.5 61.3%
under_4.5 38.7% over_5.5 46.2% under_5.5 53.8%
team_away
over_3.5 59.5% under_3.5 40.5% over_4.5 42.2%
under_4.5 57.8% over_5.5 27.6% under_5.5 72.4%
most
home 57.4% draw 10.4% away 32.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.6% away_+3.5 73.5% home_-1.5 46.5%
away_+1.5 53.5% home_-0.5 57.4% away_+0.5 42.6%
home_+0.5 67.7% away_-0.5 32.3% home_+1.5 76.9%
away_-1.5 23.2% home_+3.5 89.9% away_-3.5 10.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 61.0% under_22.5 39.0% over_24.5 48.3%
under_24.5 51.7% over_26.5 36.1% under_26.5 63.9%
over_28.5 25.5% under_28.5 74.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 72.2% under_10.5 27.8% over_12.5 55.7%
under_12.5 44.3% over_14.5 39.2% under_14.5 60.8%
team_away
over_10.5 52.0% under_10.5 48.0% over_12.5 33.9%
under_12.5 66.1% over_14.5 19.8% under_14.5 80.2%
most
home 62.1% draw 6.0% away 31.9%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.8% away_+4.5 63.2% home_-2.5 49.4%
away_+2.5 50.6% home_-0.5 62.1% away_+0.5 37.9%
home_+0.5 68.1% away_-0.5 31.9% home_+2.5 78.6%
away_-2.5 21.4% home_+4.5 86.8% away_-4.5 13.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 75.8% under_6.5 24.2% over_7.5 64.3%
under_7.5 35.7% over_8.5 52.0% under_8.5 48.0%
over_9.5 40.1% under_9.5 59.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 71.0% under_3.5 29.0% over_4.5 54.7%
under_4.5 45.3% over_5.5 38.9% under_5.5 61.1%
team_away
over_3.5 52.5% under_3.5 47.5% over_4.5 34.7%
under_4.5 65.3% over_5.5 20.8% under_5.5 79.2%
most
home 57.8% draw 11.8% away 30.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 33.4% away_+2.5 66.6% home_-0.5 57.8%
away_+0.5 42.2% home_+0.5 69.6% away_-0.5 30.4%
home_+2.5 87.4% away_-2.5 12.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 76.3% under_2.5 23.7% over_3.5 56.8%
under_3.5 43.2% over_4.5 37.3% under_4.5 62.7%
over_5.5 21.6% under_5.5 78.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 54.1% under_1.5 45.9% over_2.5 27.3%
under_2.5 72.8%
team_away
over_1.5 64.5% under_1.5 35.6% over_2.5 37.6%
under_2.5 62.4%
most
home 32.5% draw 20.3% away 47.2%
handicap
home_-1.5 16.5% away_+1.5 83.5% home_-0.5 32.5%
away_+0.5 67.6% home_+0.5 52.8% away_-0.5 47.2%
home_+1.5 72.1% away_-1.5 27.9%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 80.7% under_20.5 19.4% over_22.5 69.0%
under_22.5 31.0% over_24.5 55.6% under_24.5 44.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 74.5% under_9.5 25.5% over_11.5 55.1%
under_11.5 44.9% over_13.5 35.8% under_13.5 64.3%
team_away
over_9.5 81.5% under_9.5 18.5% over_11.5 64.6%
under_11.5 35.4% over_13.5 45.5% under_13.5 54.5%
most
home 39.6% draw 6.9% away 53.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 21.5% away_+3.5 78.5% home_-0.5 39.6%
away_+0.5 60.4% home_+2.5 60.3% away_-2.5 39.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 31.3% no 68.7%
home
yes 12.1% no 87.9%
away
yes 21.9% no 78.1%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Lyon predictions · Auxerre predictions · Ligue 1

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Markets

More on this match

Ligue 1LyonAuxerreTrack record