Segunda DivisiónCelta B vs Castellon Correct Score
Result
Final score 1-2. The model gave that exact scoreline 9.5%.
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 12.4% at 1-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. It is driven by both attacks and defences: Celta B have averaged 2.0 scored and 1.0 conceded, Castellon 1.0 and 0.4 over their recent games. That fits a balanced goals environment: 50.3% for over 2.5 and 75.4% for at least two goals. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 1-1 | 12.4% |
| 0-1 | 10.4% |
| 1-2 | 9.5% |
| 0-2 | 8.8% |
| 0-0 | 7.4% |
| 1-0 | 6.8% |
| 2-1 | 6.4% |
| 2-2 | 5.1% |
Score probability grid
| Celta B \ Castellon | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7% | 10% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| 1 | 7% | 12% | 9% | 5% | 2% | 1% |
| 2 | 4% | 6% | 5% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 1% | 2% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 4 | · | 1% | 1% | · | · | · |
| 5 | · | · | · | · | · | · |
Rows = Celta B goals, columns = Castellon. The most likely scoreline is 1-1 at 12.4%. The grid is the model’s full scoreline distribution, not a single tip, but the shape of every plausible result. Read the heatmap as a map of likelihood, not a prediction of one score.
Goals distribution
The model’s probability for the total number of goals, the shape behind every goals market. The 5+ bar groups every result with five or more goals.
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In-depth analysis
53.4%Both Teams to Score50.3%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 50.3% for three or more goals and 75.4% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Castellon favoured at 48.9%, neither side dominating can mean an end-to-end match.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
What was the score in Celta B vs Castellon?
Celta B vs Castellon finished 1-2. The model's most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 12.4%; it gave the actual 1-2 a 9.5% chance.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Segunda División, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.