Segunda División
Cadiz vs 
Las Palmas Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 65.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 82.7% for over 2.5 to 29.8% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.9%. Head to head on cards, Cadiz are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 48.7%, with a level count at 19.0%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 82.7% | 17.3% |
| 3.5 cards | 65.8% | 34.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 29.8% | 70.2% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
70.8%
45.1%
60.1%
33.0%
Card handicap
| Cadiz line | Cadiz | Las Palmas |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 30.2% | 69.8% |
| -0.5 | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| +0.5 | 67.7% | 32.3% |
| +1.5 | 82.8% | 17.2% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 84.3% | 15.8% |
| 22.5 fouls | 74.1% | 25.9% |
| 24.5 fouls | 61.7% | 38.3% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Cadiz vs Las Palmas. Slightly more cards are projected for Cadiz for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
65.8%Over 3.5 cards13.7%Any red card70.8%Cadiz over 1.5 cards60.1%Las Palmas over 1.5 cards74.1%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Cadiz over 1.5 cards sits at 70.8% and Las Palmas at 60.1%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.7% (Cadiz 8.4%, Las Palmas 5.8%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Cadiz vs Las Palmas?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 65.8% for Cadiz vs Las Palmas.
Will there be a red card in Cadiz vs Las Palmas?
The model rates a red card for either side at 13.7%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Cadiz vs Las Palmas?
The model rates Cadiz to pick up more cards at 48.7%, with a level count at 19.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Segunda División, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.