Burgos vs Sociedad B prediction & probabilities (2026-08-31)

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Burgos vs Sociedad B: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 31 Aug 2026

Segunda División
Burgos

WWWWL

Full time2-2Mon, 31 Aug 202618:00UK
Sociedad B

DLDLW

Model’s top convictions

77%

Burgos or draw

65%

Over 1.5 goals

62%

Under 2.5 goals

Full time6 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Burgos 2-2 Sociedad B
✕ Result✕ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✕ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✕ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✓ Red card
6 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Burgos at 48.5%, and it was wrong. We called Under 2.5 at 62.2% and it missed (4 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 65.2% and it landed (4 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 81.9% and it missed (4 goals). We called No at 57.2% and it missed. We called Yes at 68.4% and it landed. We called Yes at 63.9% and it landed. We called Under 9.5 at 53.5% and it missed (10 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 78.3% and it missed (3 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 53.5% and it landed (27 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 61.3% and it landed (9 shots on target). We called No at 88.9% and it landed.

Match data Burgos Sociedad B
Goals, 1st half 1 1
Goals, 2nd half 1 1
Shots 12 15
Shots on target 4 5
Corners 6 4
Yellow cards 1 2
Red cards 0 0
Fouls 13 18

Final match data.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
BurgosWin probability
48.5%
Top 3 convictions

Burgos or draw77.5%Strong chancePays @ 1.29
Over 1.5 goals65.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.53
Under 2.5 goals62.2%Strong chancePays @ 1.61

Model read

▾

"Burgos or Sociedad B? We publish probabilities, not certainties." Our engine prices Burgos at 48% for 31 August 2026. Favourites, yes; certainties, no. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Burgos at 54%. Caution noted. The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 38% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 43%. The run in: Burgos arrive W4 D1 L1, Sociedad B W2 D2 L2. History adds colour: across the last 4 meetings it is 2 wins for Burgos, 2 draws and 0 for Sociedad B at 0.5 goals per match. Verdict: no bet. Conservative ev -0.019 <= 0.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 9.5 corners45.8%@ 2.18
Over 2.5 goals37.8%@ 2.65
Over 10.5 corners35.5%@ 2.82
Medium risk

Not both teams to score57.2%@ 1.75
Over 8.5 corners56.9%@ 1.76
Draw or Sociedad B51.4%@ 1.95
Random finds

1-0 correct score14.5%@ 6.91
1-1 correct score13.2%@ 7.56
0-0 correct score11.7%@ 8.55

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Burgos

48.5%-5.5%

Draw

29.0%+1.9%

Sociedad B

22.4%+3.5%

ModelMarket

conservative EV -0.019 <= 0

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.565.2%

Strong chance

Over 2.537.8%

Toss-up

BTTS · Yes42.8%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.556.9%

Good chance

Over 9.545.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.535.5%

Toss-up

Over 11.526.5%

Low chance

Most cornersBurgos54.6%Sociedad B34.3%

Shots markets

Over 22.566.1%

Strong chance

Over 24.553.5%

Good chance

Over 26.540.9%

Toss-up

Over 28.529.4%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.565.2%2.537.8%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.565.2%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

BurgosWWWWL
Sociedad BDLDLW

Last 4 meetings: Burgos 2 · 2 draws · Sociedad B 0 · 0.5 goals/game.

2026-05-03Sociedad B 0-0 Burgos
2025-10-25Burgos 1-0 Sociedad B
2022-03-13Burgos 0-0 Sociedad B
2021-12-05Sociedad B 0-1 Burgos

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

BurgosSociedad B
League position#11 of 22#13 of 22
Record W-D-L1-0-11-0-1
Current streakL1W1
Record, home vs away1-0-01-0-0
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 2.27 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 41% · BTTS in 41%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Burgos win1.762.06
Draw3.403.45
Sociedad B win4.754.46
Over 2.5 goals2.152.65
Under 2.5 goals1.671.61

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Burgos win2.06
Draw3.45
Sociedad B win4.45
Both teams to score2.34

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.13
Over 1.5 goals1.53
Over 2.5 goals2.65
Over 3.5 goals5.52
Burgos most2.06
Sociedad B most4.45

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.41
Over 8.5 corners1.70
Over 9.5 corners2.15
Over 10.5 corners2.87
Burgos most1.83
Sociedad B most2.91

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.11
Over 3.5 cards1.28
Over 4.5 cards1.61
Over 5.5 cards2.23
Burgos most3.02
Sociedad B most2.02

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.36
Over 7.5 SoT1.63
Over 8.5 SoT2.08
Over 9.5 SoT2.81
Burgos most1.86
Sociedad B most3.00

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.51
Over 24.5 shots1.87
Over 26.5 shots2.45
Over 28.5 shots3.40
Burgos most1.61
Sociedad B most3.15

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.15
Over 22.5 fouls1.28
Over 24.5 fouls1.50
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 73.8% Over 7.5 61.2% Over 8.5 48.1% Over 9.5 35.6%
Most: Burgos 53.7% Most: Sociedad B 33.3%
Burgos Over 4.2 49.5% Sociedad B Over 4.2 34.7%

Cards

Over 2.5 90.3% Over 3.5 78.3% Over 4.5 62.2%
Most: Burgos 33.1% Most: Sociedad B 49.6%
Burgos Over 1.8 70.0% Sociedad B Over 1.8 79.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Burgos clean sheet 43.2%
Sociedad B clean sheet 25.6%
Burgos win to nil 31.5%
Sociedad B win to nil 13.9%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 48.5% draw 29.0% away 22.5%
double_chance
1X 77.6% 12 71.0% X2 51.5%
dnb
home 68.4% away 31.6%
btts
yes 42.8% no 57.3%
clean_sheet
home 43.4% away 25.6%
win_to_nil
home 31.7% away 13.9%
winning_margin
home_by_1 24.9% home_by_2 14.8% home_by_3plus 8.9%
away_by_1 15.0% away_by_2 5.6% away_by_3plus 1.8%
correct_score
0-0 11.7% 0-1 8.6% 0-2 3.9%
0-3 1.1% 0-4 0.2% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 14.5% 1-1 13.2% 1-2 5.3%
1-3 1.5% 1-4 0.3% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 10.3% 2-1 8.6% 2-2 3.6%
2-3 1.0% 2-4 0.2% 2-5 0.0%
3-0 4.7% 3-1 3.9% 3-2 1.6%
3-3 0.5% 3-4 0.1% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 1.6% 4-1 1.3% 4-2 0.6%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.0% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.0% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.3%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 0.0% p 14.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 88.3% under_0.5 11.7% over_1.5 65.2%
under_1.5 34.8% over_2.5 37.8% under_2.5 62.2%
over_3.5 18.1% under_3.5 81.9% over_4.5 7.3%
under_4.5 92.7% over_5.5 2.5% under_5.5 97.5%
odd_even
odd 48.1% even 51.9%
team_home
over_0.5 74.4% under_0.5 25.6% over_1.5 39.5%
under_1.5 60.5% over_2.5 15.8% under_2.5 84.2%
team_away
over_0.5 56.7% under_0.5 43.4% over_1.5 20.5%
under_1.5 79.5% over_2.5 5.4% under_2.5 94.6%
most
home 48.5% draw 29.0% away 22.5%
handicap
home_-2.5 8.9% away_+2.5 91.1% home_-1.5 23.7%
away_+1.5 76.3% home_-0.5 48.5% away_+0.5 51.5%
home_+0.5 77.6% away_-0.5 22.5% home_+1.5 92.6%
away_-1.5 7.4% home_+2.5 98.2% away_-2.5 1.8%
total_exact
exact_0 11.7% exact_1 23.1% exact_2 27.4%
exact_3 19.7% exact_4 10.8% exact_5 4.8%
exact_6 1.8% exact_7plus 0.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 39.1% draw 42.1% away 18.8%
total
over_0.5 68.4% under_0.5 31.6% over_1.5 32.0%
under_1.5 68.0% over_2.5 11.0% under_2.5 89.0%
btts
yes 17.7% no 82.3%
total_exact
exact_0 31.6% exact_1 36.4% exact_2 21.0%
exact_3 8.0% exact_4plus 3.0%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 37.7% draw 45.1% away 17.2%
total
over_0.5 63.9% under_0.5 36.1% over_1.5 27.1%
under_1.5 72.9% over_2.5 8.4% under_2.5 91.6%
btts
yes 14.5% no 85.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 34.2% H/D 4.1% H/A 0.8%
D/H 15.9% D/D 19.0% D/A 7.2%
A/H 1.7% A/D 4.4% A/A 12.7%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 71.0% under_7.5 29.0% over_8.5 58.9%
under_8.5 41.1% over_9.5 46.5% under_9.5 53.5%
over_10.5 34.9% under_10.5 65.1% over_11.5 24.9%
under_11.5 75.1% over_12.5 16.8% under_12.5 83.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 72.6% under_3.5 27.5% over_4.5 56.9%
under_4.5 43.2% over_5.5 41.3% under_5.5 58.7%
team_away
over_3.5 58.9% under_3.5 41.1% over_4.5 41.4%
under_4.5 58.6% over_5.5 26.6% under_5.5 73.4%
most
home 54.7% draw 11.0% away 34.4%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.4% away_+3.5 76.6% home_-1.5 43.4%
away_+1.5 56.6% home_-0.5 54.7% away_+0.5 45.3%
home_+0.5 65.6% away_-0.5 34.4% home_+1.5 75.4%
away_-1.5 24.6% home_+3.5 89.4% away_-3.5 10.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 66.1% under_22.5 34.0% over_24.5 53.5%
under_24.5 46.5% over_26.5 40.9% under_26.5 59.1%
over_28.5 29.4% under_28.5 70.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 75.6% under_10.5 24.4% over_12.5 59.4%
under_12.5 40.6% over_14.5 42.5% under_14.5 57.5%
team_away
over_10.5 55.9% under_10.5 44.1% over_12.5 37.3%
under_12.5 62.7% over_14.5 22.2% under_14.5 77.8%
most
home 62.3% draw 6.0% away 31.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.9% away_+4.5 63.1% home_-2.5 49.5%
away_+2.5 50.5% home_-0.5 62.3% away_+0.5 37.7%
home_+0.5 68.2% away_-0.5 31.8% home_+2.5 78.8%
away_-2.5 21.2% home_+4.5 86.9% away_-4.5 13.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 73.8% under_6.5 26.2% over_7.5 61.3%
under_7.5 38.8% over_8.5 48.1% under_8.5 51.9%
over_9.5 35.6% under_9.5 64.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 67.4% under_3.5 32.6% over_4.5 49.5%
under_4.5 50.5% over_5.5 33.0% under_5.5 67.0%
team_away
over_3.5 53.5% under_3.5 46.5% over_4.5 34.7%
under_4.5 65.3% over_5.5 20.2% under_5.5 79.8%
most
home 53.7% draw 13.0% away 33.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 28.2% away_+2.5 71.8% home_-0.5 53.7%
away_+0.5 46.3% home_+0.5 66.7% away_-0.5 33.3%
home_+2.5 86.5% away_-2.5 13.5%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 90.3% under_2.5 9.7% over_3.5 78.3%
under_3.5 21.7% over_4.5 62.2% under_4.5 37.9%
over_5.5 44.8% under_5.5 55.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 70.0% under_1.5 30.0% over_2.5 44.0%
under_2.5 56.0%
team_away
over_1.5 79.0% under_1.5 21.0% over_2.5 56.1%
under_2.5 43.9%
most
home 33.1% draw 17.3% away 49.6%
handicap
home_-1.5 18.9% away_+1.5 81.1% home_-0.5 33.1%
away_+0.5 66.9% home_+0.5 50.4% away_-0.5 49.6%
home_+1.5 67.5% away_-1.5 32.5%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 87.3% under_20.5 12.7% over_22.5 78.3%
under_22.5 21.7% over_24.5 66.9% under_24.5 33.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 76.8% under_9.5 23.2% over_11.5 58.5%
under_11.5 41.5% over_13.5 39.5% under_13.5 60.5%
team_away
over_9.5 88.3% under_9.5 11.7% over_11.5 75.4%
under_11.5 24.6% over_13.5 58.6% under_13.5 41.4%
most
home 33.6% draw 6.2% away 60.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 17.9% away_+3.5 82.1% home_-0.5 33.6%
away_+0.5 66.4% home_+2.5 53.0% away_-2.5 47.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 11.1% no 88.9%
home
yes 2.5% no 97.5%
away
yes 8.9% no 91.1%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Burgos predictions · Sociedad B predictions · Segunda División

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Segunda DivisiónBurgosSociedad BTrack record