Primeira Liga
Casa Pia vs 
Porto Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 39.8%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 51.8% for over 22.5 to 19.9% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.8%. On the shot count, Casa Pia are the model’s pick to have more shots at 48.8%, with a level count at 6.3%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 51.8% | 48.2% |
| 24.5 shots | 39.8% | 60.3% |
| 26.5 shots | 28.9% | 71.1% |
| 28.5 shots | 19.9% | 80.1% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
57.4%
40.3%
25.9%
54.7%
37.6%
23.6%
Shot handicap
| Casa Pia line | Casa Pia | Porto |
|---|---|---|
| -2.5 | 36.4% | 63.6% |
| -0.5 | 48.8% | 51.2% |
| +0.5 | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| +2.5 | 67.2% | 32.8% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 49.7% | 50.3% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 36.8% | 63.2% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 25.8% | 74.2% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
9.2Casa Pia shots per game15.8Casa Pia shots faced per game15.0Porto shots per game9.6Porto shots faced per gameShot volume tracks territory and game state more than the scoreline, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Casa Pia.
In-depth analysis
39.8%Over 24.5 shots40.3%Casa Pia over 12.5 shots37.6%Porto over 12.5 shots49.7%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Casa Pia over 12.5 shots sits at 40.3% and Porto at 37.6%. This season Casa Pia have averaged 9.2 shots a game and Porto 15.0.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Casa Pia vs Porto?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 39.8% for Casa Pia vs Porto.
Which team will have more shots in Casa Pia vs Porto?
The model rates Casa Pia to take more shots at 48.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,984 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Shots actually happened 39.5% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.