Premier League
Brighton vs 
Arsenal Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 47.4%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 59.1% for over 22.5 to 26.2% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.4%. Head to head on shots, Brighton are the model’s pick to have more shots at 57.7%, with a level count at 5.8%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 59.1% | 40.9% |
| 24.5 shots | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| 26.5 shots | 36.2% | 63.8% |
| 28.5 shots | 26.2% | 73.8% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
67.7%
51.8%
36.8%
53.3%
36.6%
23.1%
Shot handicap
| Brighton line | Brighton | Arsenal |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 34.2% | 65.8% |
| -2.5 | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| -0.5 | 57.7% | 42.3% |
| +0.5 | 63.5% | 36.5% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 67.6% | 32.4% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 32.0% | 68.0% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
7.2 / 12.2
7.0 / 6.5
Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.
Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Brighton.
In-depth analysis
47.4%Over 24.5 shots51.8%Brighton over 12.5 shots36.6%Arsenal over 12.5 shots55.2%Over 7.5 on targetBy team, Brighton over 12.5 shots sits at 51.8% and Arsenal at 36.6%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Brighton vs Arsenal?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 47.4% for Brighton vs Arsenal.
Which team will have more shots in Brighton vs Arsenal?
The model rates Brighton to take more shots at 57.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,699 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 17 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
