Burgos vs Ceuta prediction & probabilities (2026-09-11)

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Burgos vs Ceuta: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 11 Sep 2026

Segunda División
Burgos

WWLDD

Fri, 11 Sep 202619:30UK
Ceuta

WLLLL

Model’s top convictions

83%

Burgos or draw

69%

Over 1.5 goals

58%

Under 2.5 goals

Fairly pricedValue_gap +0.007 <= 0.03.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
BurgosWin probability
56.7%
Top 3 convictions

Burgos or draw82.7%High probabilityPays @ 1.21
Over 1.5 goals68.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.45
Under 2.5 goals58.0%Good chancePays @ 1.72

Model read

▾

"57% on Burgos is a measurement, not a promise." Burgos go into this Segunda División meeting with Ceuta on 11 September 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 57%. Bookmakers see it the same way, 57% on Burgos, and agreement is historically when our numbers are most reliable. The model expects a tight, grinding game, just 42% on Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 43%. Form guide over the last six: Burgos W3 D2 L1, Ceuta W2 D0 L4. The recent series reads 0 wins for Burgos, 1 draws and 1 for Ceuta over 2 games, 1.5 goals on average. Verdict: no bet. Value_gap +0.007 <= 0.03.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Draw or Ceuta43.2%@ 2.31
Over 2.5 goals42.0%@ 2.38
Over 9.5 corners40.6%@ 2.46
Medium risk

Not both teams to score56.9%@ 1.76
Over 8.5 corners51.7%@ 1.93
Random finds

1-0 correct score14.5%@ 6.91
1-1 correct score12.0%@ 8.30
2-0 correct score12.0%@ 8.31

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Burgos

56.7%-0.4%

Draw

26.0%+0.7%

Ceuta

17.2%-0.4%

ModelMarket

value_gap +0.007 <= 0.03

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.568.9%

Strong chance

Over 2.542.0%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes43.1%

Reasonable chance

Corners markets

Over 8.551.7%

Good chance

Over 9.540.6%

Toss-up

Over 10.530.7%

Toss-up

Over 11.522.3%

Low chance

Most cornersBurgos54.3%Ceuta34.2%

Shots markets

Over 22.559.5%

Good chance

Over 24.546.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.534.1%

Toss-up

Over 28.523.5%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Burgos11.3 taken15.8 faced
Ceuta9.8 taken14.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.568.9%2.542.0%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.568.9%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Value_gap +0.007 <= 0.03.

Form & head-to-head

BurgosWWLDD
CeutaWLLLL

Last 2 meetings: Burgos 0 · 1 draws · Ceuta 1 · 1.5 goals/game.

2026-04-01Burgos 1-1 Ceuta
2025-11-29Ceuta 1-0 Burgos

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

BurgosCeuta
League position#13 of 22#22 of 22
Record W-D-L1-2-10-0-4
Current streakD2L4
Record, home vs away1-1-00-0-2
Red cards this season01

League averages this season: 2.27 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 39% · BTTS in 39%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Burgos win1.661.76
Draw3.603.85
Ceuta win5.005.81
Over 2.5 goals1.932.38
Under 2.5 goals1.881.72

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Burgos win1.76
Draw3.84
Ceuta win5.80
Both teams to score2.32

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.11
Over 1.5 goals1.45
Over 2.5 goals2.38
Over 3.5 goals4.68
Burgos most1.76
Ceuta most5.80

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.52
Over 8.5 corners1.88
Over 9.5 corners2.46
Over 10.5 corners3.39
Burgos most1.84
Ceuta most2.91

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.13
Over 3.5 cards1.33
Over 4.5 cards1.71
Over 5.5 cards2.44
Burgos most2.92
Ceuta most2.09

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.43
Over 7.5 SoT1.76
Over 8.5 SoT2.31
Over 9.5 SoT3.20
Burgos most1.57
Ceuta most4.11

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.68
Over 24.5 shots2.15
Over 26.5 shots2.93
Over 28.5 shots4.25
Burgos most1.53
Ceuta most3.46

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.13
Over 22.5 fouls1.25
Over 24.5 fouls1.46
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 59.5% Over 24.5 46.4% Over 26.5 34.1% Over 28.5 23.5%
Most: Burgos 65.2% Most: Ceuta 28.9%
Burgos Over 13.2 48.0% Ceuta Over 13.2 22.9%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 69.9% Over 7.5 56.7% Over 8.5 43.4% Over 9.5 31.2%
Most: Burgos 63.6% Most: Ceuta 24.3%
Burgos Over 4.2 53.0% Ceuta Over 4.2 24.6%

Cards

Over 2.5 88.7% Over 3.5 75.5% Over 4.5 58.4%
Most: Burgos 34.2% Most: Ceuta 48.0%
Burgos Over 1.8 68.5% Ceuta Over 1.8 76.4%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Burgos clean sheet 46.4%
Ceuta clean sheet 20.3%
Burgos win to nil 36.4%
Ceuta win to nil 10.3%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 56.7% draw 26.0% away 17.2%
double_chance
1X 82.8% 12 74.0% X2 43.3%
dnb
home 76.7% away 23.3%
btts
yes 43.1% no 56.9%
clean_sheet
home 46.7% away 20.3%
win_to_nil
home 36.7% away 10.3%
winning_margin
home_by_1 25.7% home_by_2 17.7% home_by_3plus 13.3%
away_by_1 12.0% away_by_2 4.1% away_by_3plus 1.2%
correct_score
0-0 10.0% 0-1 6.6% 0-2 2.8%
0-3 0.7% 0-4 0.1% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 14.5% 1-1 12.0% 1-2 4.4%
1-3 1.1% 1-4 0.2% 1-5 0.0%
2-0 12.0% 2-1 9.2% 2-2 3.5%
2-3 0.9% 2-4 0.2% 2-5 0.0%
3-0 6.4% 3-1 4.9% 3-2 1.9%
3-3 0.5% 3-4 0.1% 3-5 0.0%
4-0 2.6% 4-1 2.0% 4-2 0.7%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.0% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.8% 5-1 0.6% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.6%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 0.0% p 14.5%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 90.0% under_0.5 10.0% over_1.5 68.9%
under_1.5 31.1% over_2.5 42.0% under_2.5 58.0%
over_3.5 21.3% under_3.5 78.6% over_4.5 9.1%
under_4.5 90.9% over_5.5 3.4% under_5.5 96.7%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 79.7% under_0.5 20.3% over_1.5 47.4%
under_1.5 52.6% over_2.5 21.7% under_2.5 78.3%
team_away
over_0.5 53.3% under_0.5 46.7% over_1.5 17.8%
under_1.5 82.2% over_2.5 4.3% under_2.5 95.8%
most
home 56.7% draw 26.0% away 17.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 13.3% away_+2.5 86.7% home_-1.5 31.0%
away_+1.5 69.0% home_-0.5 56.7% away_+0.5 43.3%
home_+0.5 82.8% away_-0.5 17.2% home_+1.5 94.8%
away_-1.5 5.2% home_+2.5 98.8% away_-2.5 1.2%
total_exact
exact_0 10.0% exact_1 21.1% exact_2 26.9%
exact_3 20.7% exact_4 12.2% exact_5 5.8%
exact_6 2.3% exact_7plus 1.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 41.6% draw 39.0% away 19.5%
total
over_0.5 72.7% under_0.5 27.3% over_1.5 37.3%
under_1.5 62.7% over_2.5 14.2% under_2.5 85.8%
btts
yes 21.1% no 78.9%
total_exact
exact_0 27.3% exact_1 35.4% exact_2 23.0%
exact_3 10.0% exact_4plus 4.3%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 47.8% draw 40.6% away 11.6%
total
over_0.5 67.5% under_0.5 32.6% over_1.5 30.9%
under_1.5 69.1% over_2.5 10.4% under_2.5 89.6%
btts
yes 13.8% no 86.2%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 38.2% H/D 2.9% H/A 0.4%
D/H 18.6% D/D 15.8% D/A 4.5%
A/H 2.8% A/D 5.2% A/A 11.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 65.8% under_7.5 34.2% over_8.5 53.2%
under_8.5 46.9% over_9.5 40.7% under_9.5 59.3%
over_10.5 29.5% under_10.5 70.5% over_11.5 20.3%
under_11.5 79.7% over_12.5 13.3% under_12.5 86.7%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 69.2% under_3.5 30.8% over_4.5 52.9%
under_4.5 47.1% over_5.5 37.4% under_5.5 62.6%
team_away
over_3.5 55.1% under_3.5 44.9% over_4.5 37.6%
under_4.5 62.5% over_5.5 23.4% under_5.5 76.6%
most
home 54.4% draw 11.3% away 34.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 22.5% away_+3.5 77.5% home_-1.5 42.8%
away_+1.5 57.2% home_-0.5 54.4% away_+0.5 45.6%
home_+0.5 65.7% away_-0.5 34.3% home_+1.5 75.7%
away_-1.5 24.3% home_+3.5 89.9% away_-3.5 10.1%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 59.5% under_22.5 40.5% over_24.5 46.4%
under_24.5 53.6% over_26.5 34.1% under_26.5 65.9%
over_28.5 23.5% under_28.5 76.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 73.3% under_10.5 26.7% over_12.5 56.6%
under_12.5 43.4% over_14.5 39.7% under_14.5 60.3%
team_away
over_10.5 48.6% under_10.5 51.4% over_12.5 30.3%
under_12.5 69.7% over_14.5 16.8% under_14.5 83.2%
most
home 65.1% draw 5.9% away 28.9%
handicap
home_-4.5 39.2% away_+4.5 60.8% home_-2.5 52.3%
away_+2.5 47.7% home_-0.5 65.1% away_+0.5 34.8%
home_+0.5 71.1% away_-0.5 28.9% home_+2.5 81.3%
away_-2.5 18.7% home_+4.5 88.9% away_-4.5 11.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 69.9% under_6.5 30.1% over_7.5 56.7%
under_7.5 43.3% over_8.5 43.4% under_8.5 56.6%
over_9.5 31.2% under_9.5 68.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 70.4% under_3.5 29.7% over_4.5 53.0%
under_4.5 47.0% over_5.5 36.3% under_5.5 63.7%
team_away
over_3.5 42.2% under_3.5 57.8% over_4.5 24.6%
under_4.5 75.4% over_5.5 12.7% under_5.5 87.3%
most
home 63.6% draw 12.1% away 24.3%
handicap
home_-2.5 36.7% away_+2.5 63.3% home_-0.5 63.6%
away_+0.5 36.4% home_+0.5 75.7% away_-0.5 24.3%
home_+2.5 91.8% away_-2.5 8.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 88.7% under_2.5 11.3% over_3.5 75.4%
under_3.5 24.6% over_4.5 58.4% under_4.5 41.6%
over_5.5 40.9% under_5.5 59.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 68.5% under_1.5 31.5% over_2.5 42.3%
under_2.5 57.7%
team_away
over_1.5 76.4% under_1.5 23.6% over_2.5 52.4%
under_2.5 47.6%
most
home 34.2% draw 17.8% away 48.0%
handicap
home_-1.5 19.5% away_+1.5 80.6% home_-0.5 34.2%
away_+0.5 65.8% home_+0.5 52.0% away_-0.5 48.0%
home_+1.5 69.3% away_-1.5 30.7%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 88.3% under_20.5 11.7% over_22.5 79.7%
under_22.5 20.3% over_24.5 68.7% under_24.5 31.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 83.5% under_9.5 16.5% over_11.5 68.0%
under_11.5 32.0% over_13.5 49.7% under_13.5 50.3%
team_away
over_9.5 84.7% under_9.5 15.3% over_11.5 69.8%
under_11.5 30.2% over_13.5 51.8% under_13.5 48.2%
most
home 45.2% draw 6.6% away 48.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 27.0% away_+3.5 73.0% home_-0.5 45.2%
away_+0.5 54.8% home_+2.5 64.6% away_-2.5 35.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 15.2% no 84.9%
home
yes 3.9% no 96.1%
away
yes 11.7% no 88.3%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Burgos predictions · Ceuta predictions · Segunda División

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Segunda DivisiónBurgosCeutaTrack record