Premier League
Bournemouth vs 
Brentford Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 51.6%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 63.1% for over 22.5 to 29.7% for over 28.5, with over 24.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.6%. Head to head on shots, Bournemouth are the model’s pick to have more shots at 63.8%, with a level count at 5.4%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 63.1% | 36.9% |
| 24.5 shots | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| 26.5 shots | 40.1% | 59.9% |
| 28.5 shots | 29.7% | 70.3% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
73.7%
59.0%
43.9%
51.6%
34.9%
21.7%
Shot handicap
| Bournemouth line | Bournemouth | Brentford |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 40.6% | 59.5% |
| -2.5 | 52.3% | 47.7% |
| -0.5 | 63.8% | 36.2% |
| +0.5 | 69.2% | 30.8% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 71.2% | 28.8% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 59.4% | 40.6% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 47.3% | 52.7% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 36.1% | 63.9% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
7.7 / 5.3
8.0 / 12.0
Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.
Total shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Bournemouth.
In-depth analysis
51.6%Over 24.5 shots59.0%Bournemouth over 12.5 shots34.9%Brentford over 12.5 shots59.4%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Bournemouth over 12.5 shots sits at 59.0% and Brentford at 34.9%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Bournemouth vs Brentford?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 51.6% for Bournemouth vs Brentford.
Which team will have more shots in Bournemouth vs Brentford?
The model rates Bournemouth to take more shots at 63.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,849 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.