AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Serie A
BolognaBolognaLDWLW
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1014:00UK17°C · Cloudy
MonzaMonzaLWLWL

Bologna vs Monza cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined51.3%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined48.7%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards48.7%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Bologna vs Monza. It tips Monza for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 69.1% 30.9%
3.5 cards 48.7% 51.3%
4.5 cards 30.4% 69.6%
5.5 cards 17.0% 83.0%

Who picks up more cards

Bologna
33.0%
Level
21.0%
Monza
46.0%

Team cards lines

Bologna

Over 1.5
48.3%
Over 2.5
23.3%

Monza

Over 1.5
57.8%
Over 2.5
32.1%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Bologna's; Monza gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Bologna line Bologna Monza
-1.5 16.7% 83.4%
-0.5 33.0% 67.0%
+0.5 54.0% 46.0%
+1.5 73.4% 26.6%

Red card

Any red card13.8%
Bologna red card5.0%
Monza red card9.2%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 77.7% 22.3%
22.5 fouls 66.5% 33.5%
24.5 fouls 54.0% 46.0%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Bologna Daniele Doveri 2 4.0 2.0
Bologna Kevin Bonacina 2 2.5 1.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

BolognaBologna

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Bologna at home and Monza away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

MonzaMonza
Statistic
Bologna
Monza
Cards per game at this venue
·
1.3

Opponent cards per game at this venue
·
2.0

Yellow cards per game
1.9
1.4

First-half yellow cards per game
0.9
0.4

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.9
1.0

Matches with card data
4
4

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 48.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 69.1% for over 2.5 to 17.0% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.7%. On the card count, Monza are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.0%, with a level count at 21.0%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Bologna over 1.5 cards sits at 48.3% and Monza at 57.8%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.8% (Bologna 5.0%, Monza 9.2%). Bologna’s most frequent referee this season, Daniele Doveri, has averaged 4.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

48.7%Over 3.5 cards
13.8%Any red card
46.0%Most cards: Monza
48.3%Bologna over 1.5 cards
57.8%Monza over 1.5 cards
66.5%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 48.7% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherDaniele Doveri, Bologna’s most frequent referee this season, averages 4.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 13.8%, unlikely, and priced as such.
The DisciplinarianMonza are the pick to collect more cards at 46.0%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
BolognaBologna

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

MonzaMonza
Statistic
Bologna
Monza
fouls per game
12.8
11.1

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Bologna vs Monza?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 48.7% for Bologna vs Monza.
Will there be a red card in Bologna vs Monza?
The model rates a red card for either side at 13.8%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Bologna vs Monza?
The model rates Monza to pick up more cards at 46.0%, with a level count at 21.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Serie ABologna fixtures and statsMonza fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.