AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 26 Oct 2026

Championship
BlackburnBlackburnWDWWL
Full time2-0Sat, 24 Oct 202624/1015:00UK
WrexhamWrexhamLWDLW

Blackburn 2-0 Wrexham cards: our prediction vs the result

Pre-match model estimates. Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined51.6%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined48.4%

Result

Blackburn2-0Wrexham
5 yellow cardsBlackburn 3, Wrexham 2
0 red cardsBlackburn 0, Wrexham 0
Under 3.5No

We called Under 3.5 at 51.6% and it missed (5 in the match). We called No at 96.4% and it landed (0 in the match).

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards48.4%

Match referee

The referee's own averages across every completed match with this referee in our data. A rate needs at least 5 matches with that figure. Previous referees are never used to guess an appointment.

Matthew Corlett

Recorded match referee.

Matthew Corlett in our data
Per match All matches 2026/27
Matches 45 5
Goals 2.62 3.40
Yellow cards 4.33 4.80
Red cards 0.18 0.00
Corners 10.4 10.6
Fouls 21.5 24.6
Both teams scored 64% 80%
Over 2.5 goals 58% 80%
Home wins 44% 60%
Latest 10 matches
Date Match Score Goals BTTS Yellow Red Corners Fouls
24 Oct 2026 Blackburn vs Wrexham 2-0 2 No 5 0 16 22
14 Oct 2026 QPR vs Derby 4-1 5 Yes 5 0 4 20
3 Oct 2026 Grimsby vs ShrewsburyLeague Two 1-2 3 Yes 7 0 14 38
12 Sep 2026 Oldham vs ChesterfieldLeague Two 1-2 3 Yes 5 0 5 26
1 Sep 2026 Swindon vs Port ValeLeague Two 3-1 4 Yes 2 0 14 17
10 May 2026 Grimsby vs SalfordLeague Two 1-2 3 Yes 4 Not available 8 21
2 Apr 2026 Cambridge vs SwindonLeague Two 1-1 2 Yes 2 0 16 14
14 Mar 2026 Notts County vs ChesterfieldLeague Two 2-3 5 Yes 7 1 7 25
28 Feb 2026 Oxford vs West Brom 2-1 3 Yes 2 0 11 26
10 Feb 2026 Shrewsbury vs BarrowLeague Two 2-1 3 Yes 3 0 9 17

Matthew Corlett referee stats

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Blackburn vs Wrexham. Slightly more cards are projected for Blackburn for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 69.7% 30.3%
3.5 cards 48.4% 51.6%
4.5 cards 29.3% 70.7%
5.5 cards 15.5% 84.5%

Who picks up more cards

Blackburn
43.3%
Level
21.8%
Wrexham
34.9%

Team cards lines

Blackburn

Over 1.5
56.7%
Over 2.5
29.7%

Wrexham

Over 1.5
50.5%
Over 2.5
24.2%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Blackburn's; Wrexham gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Blackburn line Blackburn Wrexham
-1.5 23.7% 76.3%
-0.5 43.3% 56.7%
+0.5 65.1% 34.9%
+1.5 82.5% 17.5%

Red card

Any red card3.6%
Blackburn red card1.5%
Wrexham red card2.1%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 48.7% 51.3%
22.5 fouls 33.2% 66.9%
24.5 fouls 20.5% 79.5%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Wrexham M Donohue 2 3.0 1.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 48.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 69.7% for over 2.5 to 15.5% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 48.4%. On the card count, Blackburn are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.3%, with a level count at 21.8%. The published percentage is an estimate, not a guarantee or a measured hit rate.

In-depth analysis

Split by side, Blackburn over 1.5 cards sits at 56.7% and Wrexham at 50.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 3.6% (Blackburn 1.5%, Wrexham 2.1%). Wrexham’s most frequent referee this season, M Donohue, has averaged 3.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

48.4%Over 3.5 cards
3.6%Any red card
43.3%Most cards: Blackburn
56.7%Blackburn over 1.5 cards
50.5%Wrexham over 1.5 cards
33.2%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 48.4% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherM Donohue, Wrexham’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 3.6%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianBlackburn are the pick to collect more cards at 43.3%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.

FAQ

How many cards in Blackburn vs Wrexham?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 48.4% for Blackburn vs Wrexham.
Will there be a red card in Blackburn vs Wrexham?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 3.6%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Blackburn vs Wrexham?
Before kickoff, the model rated Blackburn to pick up more cards at 43.3%, with a level count at 21.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.