AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 28 Oct 2026

Championship
BirminghamBirminghamDWWWL
Tue, 3 Nov 20263/1120:00UK
MillwallMillwallDWLDL

Birmingham vs Millwall cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined50.2%
Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined49.8%

Model read

Close to a coin-flip, barely a lean.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Lean

Over 3.5 cards49.8%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Birmingham vs Millwall. The model leans toward Millwall for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 70.8% 29.2%
3.5 cards 49.8% 50.2%
4.5 cards 30.5% 69.5%
5.5 cards 16.4% 83.6%

Who picks up more cards

Birmingham
33.8%
Level
21.6%
Millwall
44.6%

Team cards lines

Birmingham

Over 1.5
50.6%
Over 2.5
24.2%

Millwall

Over 1.5
58.4%
Over 2.5
31.4%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is Birmingham's; Millwall gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

Birmingham line Birmingham Millwall
-1.5 16.9% 83.2%
-0.5 33.8% 66.2%
+0.5 55.4% 44.6%
+1.5 75.1% 24.9%

Red card

Any red card19.2%
Birmingham red card10.0%
Millwall red card10.2%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 61.0% 39.1%
22.5 fouls 45.3% 54.7%
24.5 fouls 30.8% 69.2%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Birmingham G Ward 2 3.0 2.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

BirminghamBirmingham

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means Birmingham at home and Millwall away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

MillwallMillwall
Statistic
Birmingham
Millwall
Yellow cards per game
2.3
2.1

First-half yellow cards per game
0.8
1.0

Second-half yellow cards per game
1.5
0.7

Matches with card data
2
5

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,939Matches graded

In 10,293 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.5% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 28 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✗ 70.8%✓ 59.6%✓ 74.0%✗ 68.1%✓ 61.1%✓ 73.2%✓ 52.7%✓ 56.5%✗ 50.6%✗ 79.2%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Sevilla vs Osasuna2026-10-26Over 3.5 70.8%Miss
Paris SG vs Lyon2026-10-26Under 3.5 59.6%Hit
Santa Clara vs Benfica2026-10-26Over 3.5 74.0%Hit
Besiktas vs Buyuksehyr2026-10-26Over 3.5 68.1%Miss
Rizespor vs Trabzonspor2026-10-26Over 3.5 61.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 49.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 70.8% for over 2.5 to 16.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.8%. Head to head on cards, Millwall are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 44.6%, with a level count at 21.6%. This is a model estimate; validation depends on the market and available sample.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, Birmingham over 1.5 cards sits at 50.6% and Millwall at 58.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 19.2% (Birmingham 10.0%, Millwall 10.2%). Birmingham’s most frequent referee this season, G Ward, has averaged 3.0 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

49.8%Over 3.5 cards
19.2%Any red card
44.6%Most cards: Millwall
50.6%Birmingham over 1.5 cards
58.4%Millwall over 1.5 cards
45.3%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 49.8% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherG Ward, Birmingham’s most frequent referee this season, averages 3.0 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 19.2%, a low-probability event, but one that reshapes every line when it lands.
The DisciplinarianMillwall are the pick to collect more cards at 44.6%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
BirminghamBirmingham

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

MillwallMillwall
Statistic
Birmingham
Millwall
fouls per game
12.8
12.6

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in Birmingham vs Millwall?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 49.8% for Birmingham vs Millwall.
Will there be a red card in Birmingham vs Millwall?
The model rates a red card for either side at 19.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Birmingham vs Millwall?
The model rates Millwall to pick up more cards at 44.6%, with a level count at 21.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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ChampionshipBirmingham fixtures and statsMillwall fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.