Bundesliga
Augsburg vs 
Schalke 04 Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 53.6% and it missed (1 in the match). We called No at 87.7% and it missed (1 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 53.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 73.9% for over 2.5 to 19.2% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.6%. Head to head on cards, Augsburg are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.1%, with a level count at 21.1%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 73.9% | 26.1% |
| 3.5 cards | 53.6% | 46.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 34.2% | 65.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 19.2% | 80.8% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
59.2%
32.1%
55.4%
28.4%
Card handicap
| Augsburg line | Augsburg | Schalke 04 |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 23.4% | 76.6% |
| -0.5 | 42.1% | 57.9% |
| +0.5 | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| +1.5 | 80.7% | 19.3% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| 22.5 fouls | 39.4% | 60.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 28.8% | 71.2% |
The discipline market is less analysed than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Augsburg vs Schalke 04. Slightly more cards are projected for Augsburg for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
53.6%Over 3.5 cards12.3%Any red card59.2%Augsburg over 1.5 cards55.4%Schalke 04 over 1.5 cards39.4%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Augsburg over 1.5 cards sits at 59.2% and Schalke 04 at 55.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 12.3% (Augsburg 5.5%, Schalke 04 7.2%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Augsburg vs Schalke 04?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 53.6% for Augsburg vs Schalke 04.
Will there be a red card in Augsburg vs Schalke 04?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 12.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Augsburg vs Schalke 04?
Before kickoff, the model rated Augsburg to pick up more cards at 42.1%, with a level count at 21.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Bundesliga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.