Augsburg vs Schalke 04 prediction & probabilities (2026-08-30)

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Augsburg vs Schalke 04: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 29 Aug 2026

Bundesliga
Augsburg

WDWWL

Full time3-0Sun, 30 Aug 202616:30UK25°C · Cloudy
Schalke 04

WWLDL

Model’s top convictions

82%

Over 1.5 goals

77%

Augsburg or draw

61%

Over 8.5 corners

Full time8 of 11 calls right

Post-Match Analysis

Augsburg 3-0 Schalke 04
✓ Result✓ Over 2.5 goals✓ Over 1.5 goals✓ Over 3.5 goals✕ Both teams to score✓ First-half goal✓ Second-half goal✓ Over 9.5 corners✕ Over 3.5 cards✓ Over 24.5 shots✓ Over 7.5 shots on target✕ Red card
9 of 12 published calls on this match were right.

Our most likely call was Augsburg at 53.2%, and it was correct. We called Over 2.5 at 59.6% and it landed (3 goals). We called Over 1.5 at 81.9% and it landed (3 goals). We called Under 3.5 at 62.7% and it landed (3 goals). We called Yes at 60.3% and it missed. We called Yes at 76.2% and it landed. We called Yes at 79.0% and it landed. We called Over 9.5 at 51.6% and it landed (14 corners). We called Over 3.5 at 53.6% and it missed (1 yellow cards). We called Over 24.5 at 58.5% and it landed (35 shots). We called Over 7.5 at 71.1% and it landed (18 shots on target). We called No at 87.7% and it missed.

Match data Augsburg Schalke 04
Goals, 1st half 1 0
Goals, 2nd half 2 0
Shots 24 11
Shots, 1st half 6 9
Shots, 2nd half 18 2
Shots on target 13 5
Corners 11 3
Yellow cards 1 0
Red cards 0 1
Fouls 5 6
Expected goals (xG) 5.54 1.84

Final match data. Half-by-half shots come from Understat shot data, with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, so they can differ slightly from the match shot total.

Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
AugsburgWin probability
53.2%
Top 3 convictions

Over 1.5 goals81.9%High probabilityPays @ 1.22
Augsburg or draw76.6%Strong chancePays @ 1.31
Over 8.5 corners60.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.64

Model read

▾

Few Bundesliga fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Augsburg carry a 53% win probability against Schalke 04 on 30 August 2026. Our number sits above the market's 44% for Augsburg. The gap itself is information. No strong lean on goals (60% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. The recent series reads 2 wins for Augsburg, 2 draws and 1 for Schalke 04 over 5 games, 3.0 goals on average. Phillip Tietz drives the home shot volume, 1.2 on target per 90. The run in: Augsburg arrive W3 D2 L1, Schalke 04 W2 D1 L3. Fatigue may matter, with Augsburg 1085 days shorter on recovery than Schalke 04. As a promoted side, Schalke 04 carry exactly the structural uncertainty our priors were built for. Verdict: no bet. Trust gate: no_trust (segment historically unreliable).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Draw or Schalke 0446.8%@ 2.14
Over 10.5 corners40.0%@ 2.50
Over 11.5 corners30.8%@ 3.25
Medium risk

Both teams to score60.3%@ 1.66
Over 2.5 goals59.6%@ 1.68
Over 9.5 corners50.2%@ 1.99
Random finds

1-1 correct score10.9%@ 9.15
2-1 correct score9.7%@ 10.35
1-0 correct score7.9%@ 12.59

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Augsburg

53.2%+8.8%

Draw

23.4%-1.8%

Schalke 04

23.4%-7.0%

ModelMarket

trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.581.9%

High probability

Over 2.559.6%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes60.3%

Strong chance

Corners markets

Over 8.560.9%

Strong chance

Over 9.550.2%

Good chance

Over 10.540.0%

Toss-up

Over 11.530.8%

Toss-up

Most cornersAugsburg54.9%Schalke 0434.5%

Shots markets

Over 22.570.1%

Strong chance

Over 24.558.5%

Good chance

Over 26.546.4%

Reasonable chance

Over 28.534.9%

Toss-up

Totals line guide

0.5·1.581.9%2.559.6%3.5·4.5·
Our pre-match focusOver 1.581.9%

Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.

Form & head-to-head

AugsburgWDWWL
Schalke 04WWLDL

Last 5 meetings: Augsburg 2 · 2 draws · Schalke 04 1 · 3.0 goals/game.

2023-03-18Augsburg 1-1 Schalke 04
2022-10-02Schalke 04 2-3 Augsburg
2021-04-11Schalke 04 1-0 Augsburg
2020-12-13Augsburg 2-2 Schalke 04
2020-05-24Schalke 04 0-3 Augsburg

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Phillip TietzAugsburg · key player
To score17.1%

@ 5.85

1+ on target41.5%

@ 2.41

2+ shots38.2%

@ 2.62

Shots/90 2.89SoT/90 1.17Goals/90 0.41
Anton KadeAugsburg · in form
To score19.3%

@ 5.18

1+ on target52.9%

@ 1.89

2+ shots51.1%

@ 1.96

Shots/90 2.48SoT/90 1.09Goals/90 0.31
Mert KömürAugsburg · in form
To score7.9%

@ 12.66

1+ on target38.2%

@ 2.62

2+ shots31.1%

@ 3.22

Shots/90 2.34SoT/90 1Goals/90 0.17

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Augsburg win2.151.88
Draw3.704.28
Schalke 04 win3.104.28
Over 2.5 goals1.731.68
Under 2.5 goals2.102.48

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Augsburg win1.94
Draw4.22
Schalke 04 win4.04
Both teams to score1.66

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.05
Over 1.5 goals1.22
Over 2.5 goals1.68
Over 3.5 goals2.68
Augsburg most1.94
Schalke 04 most4.04

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.34
Over 8.5 corners1.57
Over 9.5 corners1.94
Over 10.5 corners2.51
Augsburg most1.82
Schalke 04 most2.89

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.35
Over 3.5 cards1.86
Over 4.5 cards2.93
Over 5.5 cards5.22
Augsburg most2.37
Schalke 04 most2.72

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.23
Over 7.5 SoT1.41
Over 8.5 SoT1.68
Over 9.5 SoT2.08
Augsburg most1.81
Schalke 04 most3.01

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.43
Over 24.5 shots1.71
Over 26.5 shots2.15
Over 28.5 shots2.86
Augsburg most1.69
Schalke 04 most2.86

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.95
Over 22.5 fouls2.54
Over 24.5 fouls3.47
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 81.1% Over 7.5 71.1% Over 8.5 59.7% Over 9.5 48.0%
Most: Augsburg 55.4% Most: Schalke 04 33.2%
Augsburg Over 4.2 58.3% Schalke 04 Over 4.2 42.3%

Cards

Over 2.5 73.9% Over 3.5 53.6% Over 4.5 34.1%
Most: Augsburg 42.1% Most: Schalke 04 36.8%
Augsburg Over 1.8 59.2% Schalke 04 Over 1.8 55.4%

Augsburg: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Phillip Tietz 2.89 1.17 0.41 41.5% 38.2% 17.1%
Anton Kade 2.48 1.09 0.31 52.9% 51.1% 19.3%
Mert Kömür 2.34 1 0.17 38.2% 31.1% 7.9%
Rodrigo Ribeiro 3.72 1 0.29 39.3% 55.4% 13.5%
Alexis Claude Maurice 2.72 0.98 0.29 56.0% 66.4% 21.6%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Augsburg clean sheet 28.8%
Schalke 04 clean sheet 15.6%
Augsburg win to nil 23.8%
Schalke 04 win to nil 10.5%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 51.5% draw 23.7% away 24.8%
double_chance
1X 75.2% 12 76.3% X2 48.5%
dnb
home 67.5% away 32.5%
btts
yes 60.3% no 39.7%
clean_sheet
home 29.2% away 15.6%
win_to_nil
home 24.1% away 10.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.1% home_by_2 15.8% home_by_3plus 13.6%
away_by_1 14.5% away_by_2 7.0% away_by_3plus 3.3%
correct_score
0-0 5.1% 0-1 5.1% 0-2 3.5%
0-3 1.4% 0-4 0.4% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 7.9% 1-1 10.9% 1-2 6.4%
1-3 2.6% 1-4 0.8% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 7.9% 2-1 9.7% 2-2 5.9%
2-3 2.4% 2-4 0.8% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 4.9% 3-1 6.0% 3-2 3.7%
3-3 1.5% 3-4 0.5% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 2.3% 4-1 2.8% 4-2 1.7%
4-3 0.7% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.1%
5-0 0.8% 5-1 1.0% 5-2 0.6%
5-3 0.3% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 1.4%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 10.9%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 94.9% under_0.5 5.1% over_1.5 81.9%
under_1.5 18.1% over_2.5 59.6% under_2.5 40.4%
over_3.5 37.3% under_3.5 62.7% over_4.5 20.0%
under_4.5 80.0% over_5.5 9.3% under_5.5 90.7%
odd_even
odd 48.9% even 51.2%
team_home
over_0.5 84.4% under_0.5 15.6% over_1.5 55.4%
under_1.5 44.6% over_2.5 28.5% under_2.5 71.5%
team_away
over_0.5 70.8% under_0.5 29.2% over_1.5 34.9%
under_1.5 65.1% over_2.5 12.7% under_2.5 87.3%
most
home 51.5% draw 23.7% away 24.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 13.6% away_+2.5 86.4% home_-1.5 29.4%
away_+1.5 70.6% home_-0.5 51.5% away_+0.5 48.5%
home_+0.5 75.2% away_-0.5 24.8% home_+1.5 89.7%
away_-1.5 10.3% home_+2.5 96.7% away_-2.5 3.3%
total_exact
exact_0 5.1% exact_1 13.0% exact_2 22.2%
exact_3 22.4% exact_4 17.3% exact_5 10.7%
exact_6 5.5% exact_7plus 3.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 30.7% draw 37.7% away 31.6%
total
over_0.5 76.2% under_0.5 23.8% over_1.5 42.1%
under_1.5 57.9% over_2.5 17.5% under_2.5 82.5%
btts
yes 26.3% no 73.7%
total_exact
exact_0 23.8% exact_1 34.2% exact_2 24.5%
exact_3 11.8% exact_4plus 5.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 32.2% draw 35.9% away 32.0%
total
over_0.5 79.0% under_0.5 21.0% over_1.5 46.2%
under_1.5 53.8% over_2.5 20.7% under_2.5 79.4%
btts
yes 29.3% no 70.7%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 23.1% H/D 5.3% H/A 2.4%
D/H 12.1% D/D 13.5% D/A 12.1%
A/H 2.4% A/D 5.5% A/A 23.7%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 74.7% under_7.5 25.3% over_8.5 63.5%
under_8.5 36.5% over_9.5 51.6% under_9.5 48.4%
over_10.5 39.9% under_10.5 60.1% over_11.5 29.5%
under_11.5 70.5% over_12.5 20.8% under_12.5 79.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.8% under_3.5 25.2% over_4.5 60.0%
under_4.5 40.0% over_5.5 44.9% under_5.5 55.2%
team_away
over_3.5 61.5% under_3.5 38.5% over_4.5 44.5%
under_4.5 55.5% over_5.5 29.6% under_5.5 70.4%
most
home 55.0% draw 10.5% away 34.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.8% away_+3.5 75.2% home_-1.5 44.2%
away_+1.5 55.8% home_-0.5 55.0% away_+0.5 45.0%
home_+0.5 65.5% away_-0.5 34.6% home_+1.5 74.8%
away_-1.5 25.2% home_+3.5 88.6% away_-3.5 11.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 70.1% under_22.5 29.9% over_24.5 58.5%
under_24.5 41.5% over_26.5 46.4% under_26.5 53.6%
over_28.5 34.9% under_28.5 65.1%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 76.1% under_10.5 23.9% over_12.5 60.8%
under_12.5 39.3% over_14.5 44.6% under_14.5 55.4%
team_away
over_10.5 61.1% under_10.5 38.9% over_12.5 43.3%
under_12.5 56.7% over_14.5 27.8% under_14.5 72.2%
most
home 59.3% draw 5.8% away 34.9%
handicap
home_-4.5 35.2% away_+4.5 64.8% home_-2.5 47.1%
away_+2.5 52.9% home_-0.5 59.3% away_+0.5 40.8%
home_+0.5 65.1% away_-0.5 34.9% home_+2.5 75.6%
away_-2.5 24.4% home_+4.5 84.1% away_-4.5 15.9%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 81.1% under_6.5 18.9% over_7.5 71.1%
under_7.5 28.9% over_8.5 59.7% under_8.5 40.3%
over_9.5 48.0% under_9.5 52.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 73.8% under_3.5 26.2% over_4.5 58.3%
under_4.5 41.7% over_5.5 42.7% under_5.5 57.3%
team_away
over_3.5 59.9% under_3.5 40.1% over_4.5 42.3%
under_4.5 57.7% over_5.5 27.3% under_5.5 72.7%
most
home 55.4% draw 11.5% away 33.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 32.3% away_+2.5 67.8% home_-0.5 55.4%
away_+0.5 44.7% home_+0.5 66.8% away_-0.5 33.2%
home_+2.5 84.9% away_-2.5 15.1%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 73.9% under_2.5 26.1% over_3.5 53.6%
under_3.5 46.4% over_4.5 34.2% under_4.5 65.9%
over_5.5 19.2% under_5.5 80.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 59.2% under_1.5 40.8% over_2.5 32.1%
under_2.5 67.9%
team_away
over_1.5 55.4% under_1.5 44.6% over_2.5 28.4%
under_2.5 71.6%
most
home 42.1% draw 21.1% away 36.8%
handicap
home_-1.5 23.4% away_+1.5 76.6% home_-0.5 42.1%
away_+0.5 57.9% home_+0.5 63.2% away_-0.5 36.8%
home_+1.5 80.7% away_-1.5 19.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 51.3% under_20.5 48.7% over_22.5 39.4%
under_22.5 60.6% over_24.5 28.8% under_24.5 71.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 53.0% under_9.5 47.0% over_11.5 36.2%
under_11.5 63.8% over_13.5 22.7% under_13.5 77.3%
team_away
over_9.5 57.6% under_9.5 42.4% over_11.5 40.8%
under_11.5 59.3% over_13.5 26.6% under_13.5 73.4%
most
home 43.6% draw 6.3% away 50.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 26.3% away_+3.5 73.7% home_-0.5 43.6%
away_+0.5 56.4% home_+2.5 62.3% away_-2.5 37.7%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 12.3% no 87.7%
home
yes 5.5% no 94.5%
away
yes 7.2% no 92.8%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Augsburg predictions · Schalke 04 predictions · Bundesliga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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