Premier League
Arsenal vs 
Chelsea Cards
Result
We called Over 3.5 at 55.2% and it landed (6 in the match). We called No at 86.6% and it landed (0 in the match).
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 55.2%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 75.1% for over 2.5 to 20.3% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.2%. Head to head on cards, Chelsea are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 54.1%, with a level count at 19.7%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 75.1% | 24.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 55.2% | 44.8% |
| 4.5 cards | 35.7% | 64.3% |
| 5.5 cards | 20.3% | 79.7% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
47.4%
21.6%
67.5%
41.1%
Card handicap
| Arsenal line | Arsenal | Chelsea |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12.2% | 87.8% |
| -0.5 | 26.2% | 73.8% |
| +0.5 | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| +1.5 | 66.3% | 33.7% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 62.6% | 37.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 31.4% | 68.7% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Arsenal vs Chelsea. The model leans toward Chelsea for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
55.2%Over 3.5 cards13.4%Any red card47.4%Arsenal over 1.5 cards67.5%Chelsea over 1.5 cards46.4%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Arsenal over 1.5 cards sits at 47.4% and Chelsea at 67.5%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.4% (Arsenal 3.1%, Chelsea 10.5%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Arsenal vs Chelsea?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 55.2% for Arsenal vs Chelsea.
Will there be a red card in Arsenal vs Chelsea?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 13.4%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Arsenal vs Chelsea?
Before kickoff, the model rated Chelsea to pick up more cards at 54.1%, with a level count at 19.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Premier League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.