Primeira Liga
Arouca vs 
Maritimo Corners
Result
Settled, final score 2-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 45.2%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 69.0% for over 7.5 to 18.3% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 46.0%. Between the two sides, Arouca are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 47.4%, with a level count at 10.4%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 69.0% | 31.1% |
| 8.5 corners | 57.5% | 42.5% |
| 9.5 corners | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| 10.5 corners | 35.3% | 64.8% |
| 11.5 corners | 25.9% | 74.1% |
| 12.5 corners | 18.3% | 81.7% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
65.7%
50.2%
36.1%
62.1%
46.3%
32.3%
Corner handicap
| Arouca line | Arouca | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 37.2% | 62.8% |
| -0.5 | 47.4% | 52.6% |
| +0.5 | 57.8% | 42.2% |
| +1.5 | 67.7% | 32.4% |
The corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Arouca.
In-depth analysis
For the team lines, Arouca over 4.5 corners sits at 50.2% and Maritimo at 46.3%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Arouca vs Maritimo?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 46.0% for Arouca vs Maritimo.
Which team will win the corner count in Arouca vs Maritimo?
Before kickoff, the model rated Arouca to win the corner count at 47.4%, with a level count at 10.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 21,548 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Corners actually happened 47.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.