Primeira Liga
Arouca vs 
Maritimo Cards
Result
Settled, final score 2-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 72.8%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 87.1% for over 2.5 to 37.5% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.0%. On the card count, Arouca are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 43.2%, with a level count at 18.4%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 87.1% | 12.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 72.8% | 27.2% |
| 4.5 cards | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 37.5% | 62.5% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
72.2%
46.7%
69.3%
43.1%
Card handicap
| Arouca line | Arouca | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 26.3% | 73.7% |
| -0.5 | 43.2% | 56.8% |
| +0.5 | 61.7% | 38.4% |
| +1.5 | 77.6% | 22.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 82.9% | 17.1% |
| 22.5 fouls | 72.6% | 27.4% |
| 24.5 fouls | 60.4% | 39.6% |
Bookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Arouca vs Maritimo. It tips Arouca for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
72.8%Over 3.5 cards23.1%Any red card72.2%Arouca over 1.5 cards69.3%Maritimo over 1.5 cards72.6%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Arouca over 1.5 cards sits at 72.2% and Maritimo at 69.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 23.1% (Arouca 13.9%, Maritimo 10.8%).
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Arouca vs Maritimo?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 72.8% for Arouca vs Maritimo.
Will there be a red card in Arouca vs Maritimo?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 23.1%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Arouca vs Maritimo?
Before kickoff, the model rated Arouca to pick up more cards at 43.2%, with a level count at 18.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,372 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.