Primeira Liga
Arouca vs 
Maritimo Shots
Result
Settled, final score 2-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 43.0%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 55.1% for over 22.5 to 22.3% for over 28.5, with over 22.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.1%. Head to head on shots, Arouca are the model’s pick to have more shots at 55.9%, with a level count at 6.1%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| 24.5 shots | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| 26.5 shots | 31.8% | 68.2% |
| 28.5 shots | 22.3% | 77.7% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
64.2%
47.5%
32.3%
51.9%
34.8%
21.3%
Shot handicap
| Arouca line | Arouca | Maritimo |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 31.7% | 68.3% |
| -2.5 | 43.5% | 56.5% |
| -0.5 | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| +0.5 | 62.0% | 38.0% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 68.7% | 31.3% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 55.9% | 44.1% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 43.1% | 57.0% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 31.4% | 68.6% |
Shot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. More attempts are projected for Arouca.
In-depth analysis
43.0%Over 24.5 shots47.5%Arouca over 12.5 shots34.8%Maritimo over 12.5 shots55.9%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Arouca over 12.5 shots sits at 47.5% and Maritimo at 34.8%.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Arouca vs Maritimo?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 24.5 total shots at 43.0% for Arouca vs Maritimo.
Which team will have more shots in Arouca vs Maritimo?
Before kickoff, the model rated Arouca to take more shots at 55.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 16,635 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Shots actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.