Eredivisie
Utrecht vs 
Willem II Correct Score
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Most likely · 9.6% at 2-1, its strongest read on the Correct Score market. The goals picture is built on form: Utrecht have averaged 2.0 scored and 3.4 conceded, Willem II 1.0 and 3.0 over their recent games. That fits an open goals environment: 66.4% for over 2.5 and 86.0% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 4.8 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Correct Score
| Scoreline | Probability |
|---|---|
| 2-1 | 9.6% |
| 1-1 | 9.4% |
| 2-0 | 7.5% |
| 3-1 | 6.8% |
| 1-0 | 6.6% |
| 2-2 | 6.1% |
| 1-2 | 5.7% |
| 3-0 | 5.4% |
Score probability grid
| Utrecht \ Willem II | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4% | 4% | 3% | 1% | · | · |
| 1 | 7% | 9% | 6% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 2 | 8% | 10% | 6% | 3% | 1% | · |
| 3 | 5% | 7% | 4% | 2% | 1% | · |
| 4 | 3% | 4% | 2% | 1% | · | · |
| 5 | 1% | 2% | 1% | · | · | · |
Rows = Utrecht goals, columns = Willem II. The most likely scoreline is 2-1 at 9.6%. Rather than one score, the model spreads probability across the whole grid, that distribution is the real signal. Read the heatmap as a map of likelihood, not a prediction of one score.
Goals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
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5+
In-depth analysis
These are the model’s own percentages, not tips. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.
64.1%Both Teams to Score66.4%Over 2.5 goalsLooking at totals, the model sees 66.4% for three or more goals and 86.0% for at least two, painting a balanced picture. With Utrecht favoured at 56.7%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Utrecht 4 · 0 draws · Willem II 1 · 4.8 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely score in Utrecht vs Willem II?
The model's most likely scoreline for Utrecht vs Willem II is 2-1 at 9.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Correct Score-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More Eredivisie, Correct Score
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
