Eredivisie
Ajax vs 
Excelsior Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 24.5 shots at 64.2%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Line by line, the read runs from 74.3% for over 22.5 to 42.2% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 53.2%. On the shot count, Ajax are the model’s pick to have more shots at 61.0%, with a level count at 5.3%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 74.3% | 25.7% |
| 24.5 shots | 64.2% | 35.8% |
| 26.5 shots | 53.2% | 46.8% |
| 28.5 shots | 42.2% | 57.8% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
79.0%
65.8%
51.2%
62.7%
46.4%
31.7%
Shot handicap
| Ajax line | Ajax | Excelsior |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 38.8% | 61.2% |
| -2.5 | 49.9% | 50.1% |
| -0.5 | 61.0% | 39.0% |
| +0.5 | 66.3% | 33.7% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 84.9% | 15.2% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 76.4% | 23.6% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 66.5% | 33.5% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 55.8% | 44.2% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
23.3Ajax shots per game10.5Ajax shots faced per game12.5Excelsior shots per game13.3Excelsior shots faced per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. The model leans to Ajax.
In-depth analysis
64.2%Over 24.5 shots65.8%Ajax over 12.5 shots46.4%Excelsior over 12.5 shots76.4%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Ajax over 12.5 shots sits at 65.8% and Excelsior at 46.4%. This season Ajax have averaged 23.3 shots a game and Excelsior 12.5.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Ajax vs Excelsior?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 64.2% for Ajax vs Excelsior.
Which team will have more shots in Ajax vs Excelsior?
The model rates Ajax to take more shots at 61.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 2,757 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Shots actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 20 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
Our most recent Shots calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Eredivisie, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
