AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 1 Nov 2026

Super League Greece
AEKAEKWDWWW
Sun, 8 Nov 20268/1115:00UK
LevadeiakosLevadeiakosDLLDD

AEK vs Levadeiakos cards prediction

Based on the Road2Sushi model. Not guaranteed outcomes.

Over 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined74.3%
Under 3.5 cardsBoth teams combined25.7%

Model read

A clear lean on the model's numbers.

Conviction is how far the model's probability sits from an even 50/50: Strong at 18 points or more, Moderate at 8 points or more, Lean below that.

Conviction: Strong

Over 3.5 cards74.3%

Cards (bookings)

Model probabilities for this match. Over means more than the stated line; Under means fewer. For example, over 2.5 requires at least 3. These estimates are not bookmaker odds.

Yellow-card estimates use recorded match data; bookmaker settlement rules may differ, these are the model total-booking probabilities for AEK vs Levadeiakos. It tips Levadeiakos for the most cards.

Total cards

Both teams combined.

Line Over Under
2.5 cards 88.0% 12.0%
3.5 cards 74.3% 25.7%
4.5 cards 57.0% 43.0%
5.5 cards 39.4% 60.6%

Who picks up more cards

AEK
35.5%
Level
18.1%
Levadeiakos
46.4%

Team cards lines

AEK

Over 1.5
68.5%
Over 2.5
42.3%

Levadeiakos

Over 1.5
74.9%
Over 2.5
50.3%

Card handicap

The four handicap lines closest to an even split. The line is AEK's; Levadeiakos gets the opposite line. Half lines have no push.

AEK line AEK Levadeiakos
-1.5 20.3% 79.7%
-0.5 35.5% 64.5%
+0.5 53.6% 46.4%
+1.5 70.8% 29.2%

Red card

Any red card30.9%
AEK red card8.9%
Levadeiakos red card24.2%

Fouls

Line Over Under
20.5 fouls 94.1% 5.9%
22.5 fouls 88.6% 11.4%
24.5 fouls 80.5% 19.5%

Recent referees

The referees each side has met most this season, with cards per game overall and for that team. This history does not establish who officiates this match. The main match page shows a saved match referee when available.

Team Referee Games Cards/g Team cards/g
Levadeiakos A. Evangelou 2 0.5 0.0

Swipe to see all referee stats →

AEKAEK

Card trends

2026/27 · Recorded results. At this venue means AEK at home and Levadeiakos away. A rate appears only after five matches with the figure, three for the home or away split; a missing value is never zero.

LevadeiakosLevadeiakos
Statistic
AEK
Levadeiakos
Yellow cards per game
1.8
1.6

First-half yellow cards per game
1.2
0.7

Second-half yellow cards per game
0.6
0.8

Matches with card data
3
4

Bar scales · Cards per game: 0–5. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Cards accuracy

How our Cards calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.

61.4%Best Cards call, hit rate
0.0222Calibration error
50,950Matches graded

In 8,516 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 1 Nov 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Our last 10 Cards calls

Our most recent Cards calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.

✓ 50.6%✗ 50.7%✗ 51.1%✓ 52.0%✓ 54.1%✓ 50.1%✓ 54.7%✗ 63.6%✗ 51.1%✗ 52.8%
5 of 10 recent calls hit.
Frosinone vs Lecce2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.6%Hit
Fiorentina vs Atalanta2026-10-29Under 3.5 50.7%Miss
Milan vs Bologna2026-10-28Over 3.5 51.1%Miss
Parma vs Udinese2026-10-28Under 3.5 52.0%Hit
Venezia vs Inter2026-10-28Under 3.5 54.1%Hit
Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

Expert AI analysis

The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 74.3%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 88.0% for over 2.5 to 39.4% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 57.0%. On the card count, Levadeiakos are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 46.4%, with a level count at 18.1%. Read the recorded data and validation context alongside the estimate.

In-depth analysis

For the team lines, AEK over 1.5 cards sits at 68.5% and Levadeiakos at 74.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 30.9% (AEK 8.9%, Levadeiakos 24.2%). Levadeiakos’s most frequent referee this season, A. Evangelou, has averaged 0.5 cards a game across 2 of their matches; the appointment for this game is not known before kickoff.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. What we are good at is getting the percentage right, not at beating the bookmakers.

74.3%Over 3.5 cards
30.9%Any red card
46.4%Most cards: Levadeiakos
68.5%AEK over 1.5 cards
74.9%Levadeiakos over 1.5 cards
88.6%Over 22.5 fouls

Model lenses

The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.

The ModelPublished estimate: 74.3% on Cards. Validation depends on the market and sample; this percentage is not a measured hit rate.
The Referee WatcherA. Evangelou, Levadeiakos’s most frequent referee this season, averages 0.5 cards a game. These historical averages do not identify this match’s referee.
The FlashpointAny red card is rated at 30.9%, high enough to matter for the team lines.
The DisciplinarianLevadeiakos are the pick to collect more cards at 46.4%, the side chasing the game tends to foul more.
AEKAEK

This season

2026/27 · Recorded results.

LevadeiakosLevadeiakos
Statistic
AEK
Levadeiakos
fouls per game
15.5
14.6

Bar scales · Fouls per game: 0–20. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

FAQ

How many cards in AEK vs Levadeiakos?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 74.3% for AEK vs Levadeiakos.
Will there be a red card in AEK vs Levadeiakos?
The model rates a red card for either side at 30.9%.
Which team will pick up more cards in AEK vs Levadeiakos?
The model rates Levadeiakos to pick up more cards at 46.4%, with a level count at 18.1%.
How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Super League GreeceAEK fixtures and statsLevadeiakos fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.