Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Hertha56.3%
Win probability · fair 1.78
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely84.2%Fair 1.19
Hertha or drawVery likely78.4%Fair 1.28
Over 8.5 cornersLikely67.9%Fair 1.47
Model read
▾
Few 2. Bundesliga fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Hertha carry a 56% win probability against Greuther Furth on 10 October 2026. The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 63% with both teams to score at 62%. The recent series reads 3 wins for Hertha, 1 draws and 1 for Greuther Furth over 5 games, 3.2 goals on average. The run in: Hertha arrive W6 D0 L0, Greuther Furth W1 D3 L2. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 10.5 corners46.9%@ 2.13
Draw or Greuther Furth43.7%@ 2.29
Over 11.5 corners37.0%@ 2.70
Medium risk
Both teams to score61.6%@ 1.62
Over 9.5 corners57.5%@ 1.74
Random finds
1-1 correct score10.0%@ 10.03
2-1 correct score9.7%@ 10.28
2-0 correct score8.0%@ 12.44
Model vs market
Hertha
56.3%
Draw
22.1%
Greuther
21.6%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely84.2%Fair 1.19
Over 2.5Likely63.3%Fair 1.58
BTTS · YesLikely61.6%Fair 1.62
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely67.9%Fair 1.47
Over 9.5 cornersClose call57.5%Fair 1.74
Over 10.5 cornersClose call46.9%Fair 2.13
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely37.0%Fair 2.70
Most cornersHertha48.8%Greuther Furth40.4%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsVery likely77.8%Fair 1.28
Over 24.5 shotsLikely66.9%Fair 1.50
Over 26.5 shotsClose call54.6%Fair 1.83
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely42.2%Fair 2.37
Recent shot volume
Hertha19.2 taken13.3 faced
Greuther Furth14.0 taken15.3 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
Totals line guide
0.5·1.584.2%2.563.3%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.563.3%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
HerthaWWWWW
Greuther FurthLWLDD
Last 5 meetings: Hertha 3 · 1 draws · Greuther Furth 1 · 3.2 goals/game.
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Hertha win1.78
Draw4.53
Greuther Furth win4.62
Both teams to score1.62
Goals
Over 1.5 goals1.19
Over 2.5 goals1.58
Over 3.5 goals2.43
Over 4.5 goals4.32
Hertha most1.78
Greuther Furth most4.62
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.24
Over 8.5 corners1.41
Over 9.5 corners1.68
Over 10.5 corners2.10
Hertha most2.04
Greuther Furth most2.47
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.24
Over 3.5 cards1.59
Over 4.5 cards2.30
Over 5.5 cards3.74
Hertha most2.37
Greuther Furth most2.64
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.24
Over 7.5 SoT1.43
Over 8.5 SoT1.72
Over 9.5 SoT2.18
Hertha most1.84
Greuther Furth most2.96
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.28
Over 24.5 shots1.50
Over 26.5 shots1.83
Over 28.5 shots2.37
Hertha most1.80
Greuther Furth most2.61
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.47
Over 22.5 fouls1.86
Over 24.5 fouls2.54
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
77.8%
Over 24.5
66.9%
Over 26.5
54.6%
Over 28.5
42.2%
Most: Hertha
55.6%
Most: Greuther Furth
38.3%
Hertha Over 13.2
55.9%
Greuther Furth Over 13.2
43.4%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
80.6%
Over 7.5
70.0%
Over 8.5
58.1%
Over 9.5
45.9%
Most: Hertha
54.2%
Most: Greuther Furth
33.7%
Hertha Over 4.2
56.6%
Greuther Furth Over 4.2
41.8%
Cards
Over 2.5
80.6%
Over 3.5
62.7%
Over 4.5
43.5%
Most: Hertha
42.2%
Most: Greuther Furth
37.9%
Hertha Over 1.8
65.0%
Greuther Furth Over 1.8
62.2%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Hertha clean sheet
29.2%
Greuther Furth clean sheet
12.9%
Hertha win to nil
24.9%
Greuther Furth win to nil
8.6%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
56.3%
draw
22.1%
away
21.6%
double_chance
1X
78.4%
12
77.9%
X2
43.7%
dnb
home
72.2%
away
27.8%
btts
yes
61.6%
no
38.4%
clean_sheet
home
29.8%
away
12.9%
win_to_nil
home
25.5%
away
8.6%
winning_margin
home_by_1
22.1%
home_by_2
17.2%
home_by_3plus
17.1%
away_by_1
12.9%
away_by_2
6.0%
away_by_3plus
2.8%
correct_score
0-0
4.3%
0-1
4.2%
0-2
2.8%
0-3
1.1%
0-4
0.4%
0-5
0.1%
1-0
7.4%
1-1
10.0%
1-2
5.8%
1-3
2.3%
1-4
0.7%
1-5
0.2%
2-0
8.0%
2-1
9.7%
2-2
5.9%
2-3
2.4%
2-4
0.7%
2-5
0.2%
3-0
5.5%
3-1
6.7%
3-2
4.0%
3-3
1.6%
3-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
2.8%
4-1
3.4%
4-2
2.1%
4-3
0.8%
4-4
0.3%
4-5
0.1%
5-0
1.2%
5-1
1.4%
5-2
0.9%
5-3
0.3%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
other
2.0%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
10.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
95.7%
under_0.5
4.3%
over_1.5
84.2%
under_1.5
15.8%
over_2.5
63.3%
under_2.5
36.7%
over_3.5
41.2%
under_3.5
58.8%
over_4.5
23.1%
under_4.5
76.9%
over_5.5
11.3%
under_5.5
88.7%
odd_even
odd
49.0%
even
51.0%
team_home
over_0.5
87.1%
under_0.5
12.9%
over_1.5
60.8%
under_1.5
39.2%
over_2.5
33.8%
under_2.5
66.2%
team_away
over_0.5
70.2%
under_0.5
29.8%
over_1.5
34.2%
under_1.5
65.9%
over_2.5
12.3%
under_2.5
87.7%
most
home
56.3%
draw
22.1%
away
21.6%
handicap
home_-2.5
17.1%
away_+2.5
82.9%
home_-1.5
34.2%
away_+1.5
65.8%
home_-0.5
56.3%
away_+0.5
43.7%
home_+0.5
78.4%
away_-0.5
21.6%
home_+1.5
91.2%
away_-1.5
8.8%
home_+2.5
97.2%
away_-2.5
2.8%
total_exact
exact_0
4.3%
exact_1
11.5%
exact_2
20.8%
exact_3
22.1%
exact_4
18.1%
exact_5
11.8%
exact_6
6.4%
exact_7plus
4.9%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
47.2%
draw
34.7%
away
18.2%
total
over_0.5
78.1%
under_0.5
21.9%
over_1.5
44.8%
under_1.5
55.2%
over_2.5
19.6%
under_2.5
80.4%
btts
yes
25.3%
no
74.7%
total_exact
exact_0
21.9%
exact_1
33.3%
exact_2
25.3%
exact_3
12.8%
exact_4plus
6.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
46.9%
draw
31.4%
away
21.7%
total
over_0.5
83.8%
under_0.5
16.2%
over_1.5
54.3%
under_1.5
45.7%
over_2.5
27.5%
under_2.5
72.5%
btts
yes
33.5%
no
66.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
40.2%
H/D
5.1%
H/A
1.8%
D/H
16.3%
D/D
10.9%
D/A
7.5%
A/H
3.1%
A/D
4.3%
A/A
10.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
80.7%
under_7.5
19.3%
over_8.5
70.7%
under_8.5
29.3%
over_9.5
59.4%
under_9.5
40.6%
over_10.5
47.7%
under_10.5
52.3%
over_11.5
36.6%
under_11.5
63.4%
over_12.5
26.8%
under_12.5
73.2%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
75.9%
under_3.5
24.1%
over_4.5
61.0%
under_4.5
39.0%
over_5.5
45.6%
under_5.5
54.4%
team_away
over_3.5
71.0%
under_3.5
29.0%
over_4.5
54.9%
under_4.5
45.1%
over_5.5
39.2%
under_5.5
60.8%
most
home
48.9%
draw
10.6%
away
40.5%
handicap
home_-3.5
20.5%
away_+3.5
79.5%
home_-1.5
38.4%
away_+1.5
61.6%
home_-0.5
48.9%
away_+0.5
51.1%
home_+0.5
59.5%
away_-0.5
40.5%
home_+1.5
69.4%
away_-1.5
30.6%
home_+3.5
85.0%
away_-3.5
15.0%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
77.8%
under_22.5
22.2%
over_24.5
66.9%
under_24.5
33.1%
over_26.5
54.6%
under_26.5
45.4%
over_28.5
42.2%
under_28.5
57.8%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
79.7%
under_10.5
20.3%
over_12.5
64.4%
under_12.5
35.7%
over_14.5
47.3%
under_14.5
52.7%
team_away
over_10.5
70.3%
under_10.5
29.8%
over_12.5
52.4%
under_12.5
47.6%
over_14.5
35.1%
under_14.5
64.9%
most
home
55.6%
draw
6.2%
away
38.3%
handicap
home_-4.5
31.1%
away_+4.5
69.0%
home_-2.5
43.0%
away_+2.5
57.0%
home_-0.5
55.6%
away_+0.5
44.4%
home_+0.5
61.7%
away_-0.5
38.3%
home_+2.5
73.1%
away_-2.5
26.9%
home_+4.5
82.4%
away_-4.5
17.6%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
80.6%
under_6.5
19.4%
over_7.5
70.0%
under_7.5
30.0%
over_8.5
58.1%
under_8.5
41.9%
over_9.5
45.9%
under_9.5
54.1%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
73.0%
under_3.5
27.0%
over_4.5
56.6%
under_4.5
43.4%
over_5.5
40.4%
under_5.5
59.6%
team_away
over_3.5
60.0%
under_3.5
40.0%
over_4.5
41.8%
under_4.5
58.3%
over_5.5
26.4%
under_5.5
73.7%
most
home
54.2%
draw
12.0%
away
33.7%
handicap
home_-2.5
30.3%
away_+2.5
69.7%
home_-0.5
54.2%
away_+0.5
45.8%
home_+0.5
66.3%
away_-0.5
33.7%
home_+2.5
85.2%
away_-2.5
14.8%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
80.6%
under_2.5
19.4%
over_3.5
62.7%
under_3.5
37.3%
over_4.5
43.5%
under_4.5
56.6%
over_5.5
26.8%
under_5.5
73.2%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
65.0%
under_1.5
35.0%
over_2.5
38.3%
under_2.5
61.7%
team_away
over_1.5
62.2%
under_1.5
37.8%
over_2.5
35.2%
under_2.5
64.8%
most
home
42.2%
draw
19.8%
away
38.0%
handicap
home_-1.5
24.4%
away_+1.5
75.6%
home_-0.5
42.2%
away_+0.5
57.8%
home_+0.5
62.1%
away_-0.5
38.0%
home_+1.5
78.9%
away_-1.5
21.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
68.1%
under_20.5
31.9%
over_22.5
53.7%
under_22.5
46.3%
over_24.5
39.4%
under_24.5
60.7%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
72.1%
under_9.5
28.0%
over_11.5
52.0%
under_11.5
48.0%
over_13.5
32.7%
under_13.5
67.3%
team_away
over_9.5
66.4%
under_9.5
33.6%
over_11.5
45.3%
under_11.5
54.7%
over_13.5
26.7%
under_13.5
73.3%
most
home
51.0%
draw
7.3%
away
41.6%
handicap
home_-3.5
29.8%
away_+3.5
70.2%
home_-0.5
51.0%
away_+0.5
49.0%
home_+2.5
72.0%
away_-2.5
28.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
19.8%
no
80.2%
home
yes
16.4%
no
83.6%
away
yes
4.1%
no
95.9%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
2. Bundesliga
Hertha
Greuther Furth