Alaves vs Ath Madrid prediction & probabilities (2026-10-10)

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Alaves vs Ath Madrid: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 21 Sep 2026

La Liga
Alaves

DWWLL

Sat, 10 Oct 202610/1015:15UK
Ath Madrid

DWLWW

Model’s top convictions

76%

Over 1.5 goals

64%

Alaves or draw

62%

Draw or Ath Madrid

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Alaves38.3%

Win probability · fair 2.61

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsVery likely75.8%Fair 1.32
Alaves or drawLikely64.4%Fair 1.55
Draw or Ath MadridLikely61.7%Fair 1.62

Model read

Expect a tight one: the model splits Alaves and Ath Madrid almost evenly, Alaves marginally on top at 38%. Totals sit close to the fence: 51% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 55%. Mariano drives the home shot volume, 1.7 on target per 90. The recent series reads 1 wins for Alaves, 2 draws and 2 for Ath Madrid over 5 games, 1.6 goals on average. The run in: Alaves arrive W3 D1 L2, Ath Madrid W4 D1 L1. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.

High risk

Over 10.5 corners39.6%@ 2.53
Ath Madrid win35.6%@ 2.81
Over 11.5 corners30.3%@ 3.30
Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners60.8%@ 1.64
Both teams to score55.4%@ 1.81
Over 2.5 goals50.7%@ 1.97
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.8%@ 7.81
1-0 correct score8.5%@ 11.74
0-1 correct score8.4%@ 11.92

Model vs market

Alaves

38.3%

Draw

26.2%

Ath Madrid

35.6%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely75.8%Fair 1.32
Over 2.5Close call50.7%Fair 1.97
BTTS · YesClose call55.4%Fair 1.81

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersLikely60.8%Fair 1.64
Over 9.5 cornersClose call50.0%Fair 2.00
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely39.6%Fair 2.53
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely30.3%Fair 3.30
Most cornersAlaves54.4%Ath Madrid34.8%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsClose call59.8%Fair 1.67
Over 24.5 shotsClose call47.0%Fair 2.13
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely34.9%Fair 2.87
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot24.4%Fair 4.11

Recent shot volume

Alaves14.2 taken10.2 faced
Ath Madrid16.8 taken10.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.

Alaves (6 games)

5.0 / 9.2

Ath Madrid (6 games)

8.3 / 8.5

Totals line guide

0.5·1.575.8%2.550.7%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.575.8%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

AlavesDWWLL
Ath MadridDWLWW

Last 5 meetings: Alaves 1 · 2 draws · Ath Madrid 2 · 1.6 goals/game.

2026-01-18Ath Madrid 1-0 Alaves
2025-08-30Alaves 1-1 Ath Madrid
2025-05-03Alaves 0-0 Ath Madrid
2024-11-23Ath Madrid 2-1 Alaves
2024-04-21Alaves 2-0 Ath Madrid

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

AlavesAth Madrid
League position#6 of 20#4 of 20
Record W-D-L3-2-24-1-1
Current streakD1W2
Points per game1.572.17
Record, home vs away3-0-12-0-1
PPG, home vs away2.252.00
Goals scored per game1.572.33
Goals conceded per game0.861.00
Scored, home vs away2.252.00
Conceded, home vs away0.751.33
1st half goals per game0.670.67
2nd half goals per game1.171.67
Corners won per game4.85.3
Cards per game2.31.8
Fouls per game13.711.2
Red cards this season01
Shots per game14.216.8
Shots faced per game10.210.0
Shots on target per game5.26.0
1st half shots per game5.08.3
2nd half shots per game9.28.5
xG for per game1.521.88
xG against per game1.091.34
Over 2.5 rate

42.9%83.3%

BTTS rate

42.9%33.3%

Clean sheets

42.9%50.0%

Rates this season:AlavesAth Madrid

League averages this season: 3.08 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 57% · BTTS in 57%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

MarianoAlaves · key player
To score16.2%6.17
1+ on target47.6%2.10
2+ shots22.2%4.50
Shots/90 2.3SoT/90 1.68Goals/90 0.46
Julián ÁlvarezAth Madrid · key player
To score31.2%3.21
1+ on target63.2%1.58
2+ shots58.2%1.72
Shots/90 2.62SoT/90 1.34Goals/90 0.5
Antonio MartínezAlaves · in form
To score21.4%4.67
1+ on target50.5%1.98
2+ shots61.8%1.62
Shots/90 3.21SoT/90 1.08Goals/90 0.37
Jonathan Christian DavidAth Madrid · in form
To score30.0%3.33
1+ on target56.1%1.78
2+ shots54.8%1.82
Shots/90 2.52SoT/90 1.13Goals/90 0.49
Lucas BoyéAlaves · in form
To score34.8%2.87
1+ on target52.3%1.91
2+ shots65.9%1.52
Shots/90 2.9SoT/90 0.95Goals/90 0.55
Ademola LookmanAth Madrid · in form
To score29.2%3.42
1+ on target52.1%1.92
2+ shots64.9%1.54
Shots/90 2.95SoT/90 0.98Goals/90 0.46

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Alaves win2.71
Draw3.71
Ath Madrid win2.76
Both teams to score1.81

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.32
Over 2.5 goals1.97
Over 3.5 goals3.49
Alaves most2.71
Ath Madrid most2.76

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.34
Over 8.5 corners1.58
Over 9.5 corners1.95
Over 10.5 corners2.53
Alaves most1.84
Ath Madrid most2.86

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.25
Over 3.5 cards1.61
Over 4.5 cards2.29
Over 5.5 cards3.62
Alaves most2.70
Ath Madrid most2.29

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.37
Over 7.5 SoT1.65
Over 8.5 SoT2.10
Over 9.5 SoT2.82
Alaves most1.89
Ath Madrid most2.91

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.67
Over 24.5 shots2.13
Over 26.5 shots2.87
Over 28.5 shots4.11
Alaves most1.61
Ath Madrid most3.14

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.32
Over 22.5 fouls1.59
Over 24.5 fouls2.04
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 59.8% Over 24.5 47.0% Over 26.5 34.9% Over 28.5 24.4%
Most: Alaves 62.2% Most: Ath Madrid 31.8%
Alaves Over 13.2 46.4% Ath Madrid Over 13.2 25.4%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 73.0% Over 7.5 60.6% Over 8.5 47.7% Over 9.5 35.5%
Most: Alaves 52.8% Most: Ath Madrid 34.3%
Alaves Over 4.2 48.6% Ath Madrid Over 4.2 35.2%

Cards

Over 2.5 79.8% Over 3.5 62.3% Over 4.5 43.7%
Most: Alaves 37.1% Most: Ath Madrid 43.7%
Alaves Over 1.8 60.6% Ath Madrid Over 1.8 65.0%

Alaves: players to watch (recent-form projection)

Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Mariano 2.3 1.68 0.46 47.6% 22.2% 16.2%
Antonio Martínez 3.21 1.08 0.37 50.5% 61.8% 21.4%
Lucas Boyé 2.9 0.95 0.55 52.3% 65.9% 34.8%
Abderrahmane Rebbach 1.73 0.61 0.04 30.9% 28.2% 2.4%
Carlos Benavídez 1.08 0.43 0.11 12.1% 4.2% 3.2%

Ath Madrid: players to watch (recent-form projection)

Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Julián Álvarez 2.62 1.34 0.5 63.2% 58.2% 31.2%
Jonathan Christian David 2.52 1.13 0.49 56.1% 54.8% 30.0%
Ademola Lookman 2.95 0.98 0.46 52.1% 64.9% 29.2%
Lee Kang-In 2.41 0.85 0.23 42.1% 45.9% 13.8%
Carlos Martín 1.83 0.76 0.05 34.7% 27.4% 2.8%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.

Alaves clean sheet 26.1%
Ath Madrid clean sheet 25.7%
Alaves win to nil 18.8%
Ath Madrid win to nil 18.4%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 36.9% draw 27.0% away 36.2%
double_chance
1X 63.8% 12 73.1% X2 63.1%
dnb
home 50.5% away 49.5%
btts
yes 55.4% no 44.6%
clean_sheet
home 26.2% away 25.8%
win_to_nil
home 18.9% away 18.4%
winning_margin
home_by_1 19.7% home_by_2 10.9% home_by_3plus 6.2%
away_by_1 19.5% away_by_2 10.7% away_by_3plus 6.0%
correct_score
0-0 7.3% 0-1 8.4% 0-2 6.1%
0-3 2.7% 0-4 0.9% 0-5 0.3%
1-0 8.5% 1-1 12.8% 1-2 8.2%
1-3 3.7% 1-4 1.3% 1-5 0.3%
2-0 6.2% 2-1 8.3% 2-2 5.6%
2-3 2.5% 2-4 0.8% 2-5 0.2%
3-0 2.8% 3-1 3.8% 3-2 2.5%
3-3 1.1% 3-4 0.4% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.0% 4-1 1.3% 4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.3% 5-1 0.4% 5-2 0.2%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.5%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.8%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.7% under_0.5 7.3% over_1.5 75.8%
under_1.5 24.2% over_2.5 50.7% under_2.5 49.3%
over_3.5 28.6% under_3.5 71.4% over_4.5 13.8%
under_4.5 86.3% over_5.5 5.7% under_5.5 94.3%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 74.3% under_0.5 25.8% over_1.5 39.4%
under_1.5 60.7% over_2.5 15.7% under_2.5 84.3%
team_away
over_0.5 73.8% under_0.5 26.2% over_1.5 38.8%
under_1.5 61.2% over_2.5 15.4% under_2.5 84.6%
most
home 36.9% draw 27.0% away 36.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 6.2% away_+2.5 93.8% home_-1.5 17.1%
away_+1.5 82.9% home_-0.5 36.9% away_+0.5 63.1%
home_+0.5 63.8% away_-0.5 36.2% home_+1.5 83.3%
away_-1.5 16.7% home_+2.5 94.0% away_-2.5 6.0%
total_exact
exact_0 7.3% exact_1 16.9% exact_2 25.1%
exact_3 22.1% exact_4 14.9% exact_5 8.1%
exact_6 3.6% exact_7plus 2.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 28.9% draw 47.0% away 24.0%
total
over_0.5 62.5% under_0.5 37.5% over_1.5 25.7%
under_1.5 74.3% over_2.5 7.7% under_2.5 92.3%
btts
yes 14.9% no 85.1%
total_exact
exact_0 37.5% exact_1 36.8% exact_2 18.0%
exact_3 5.9% exact_4plus 1.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 27.2% draw 32.6% away 40.2%
total
over_0.5 83.4% under_0.5 16.6% over_1.5 53.6%
under_1.5 46.4% over_2.5 26.8% under_2.5 73.2%
btts
yes 34.5% no 65.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 19.1% H/D 6.1% H/A 3.8%
D/H 12.8% D/D 15.3% D/A 18.9%
A/H 1.7% A/D 3.9% A/A 18.5%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 74.7% under_7.5 25.3% over_8.5 63.4%
under_8.5 36.6% over_9.5 51.3% under_9.5 48.7%
over_10.5 39.5% under_10.5 60.5% over_11.5 29.0%
under_11.5 71.1% over_12.5 20.2% under_12.5 79.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 74.7% under_3.5 25.4% over_4.5 59.6%
under_4.5 40.4% over_5.5 44.3% under_5.5 55.8%
team_away
over_3.5 61.9% under_3.5 38.1% over_4.5 44.7%
under_4.5 55.3% over_5.5 29.7% under_5.5 70.3%
most
home 54.5% draw 10.6% away 34.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 24.1% away_+3.5 75.9% home_-1.5 43.6%
away_+1.5 56.4% home_-0.5 54.5% away_+0.5 45.5%
home_+0.5 65.1% away_-0.5 34.9% home_+1.5 74.6%
away_-1.5 25.4% home_+3.5 88.6% away_-3.5 11.4%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 59.8% under_22.5 40.2% over_24.5 47.0%
under_24.5 53.0% over_26.5 34.9% under_26.5 65.1%
over_28.5 24.4% under_28.5 75.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 71.6% under_10.5 28.4% over_12.5 54.8%
under_12.5 45.2% over_14.5 38.3% under_14.5 61.7%
team_away
over_10.5 51.1% under_10.5 48.9% over_12.5 33.0%
under_12.5 67.0% over_14.5 19.1% under_14.5 81.0%
most
home 62.2% draw 6.0% away 31.8%
handicap
home_-4.5 36.7% away_+4.5 63.3% home_-2.5 49.4%
away_+2.5 50.6% home_-0.5 62.2% away_+0.5 37.8%
home_+0.5 68.2% away_-0.5 31.8% home_+2.5 78.8%
away_-2.5 21.2% home_+4.5 86.9% away_-4.5 13.1%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 73.0% under_6.5 27.0% over_7.5 60.6%
under_7.5 39.4% over_8.5 47.7% under_8.5 52.3%
over_9.5 35.5% under_9.5 64.5%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 66.2% under_3.5 33.8% over_4.5 48.6%
under_4.5 51.4% over_5.5 32.5% under_5.5 67.5%
team_away
over_3.5 53.6% under_3.5 46.4% over_4.5 35.2%
under_4.5 64.8% over_5.5 20.8% under_5.5 79.2%
most
home 52.8% draw 12.8% away 34.4%
handicap
home_-2.5 27.9% away_+2.5 72.1% home_-0.5 52.8%
away_+0.5 47.2% home_+0.5 65.6% away_-0.5 34.4%
home_+2.5 85.6% away_-2.5 14.4%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 79.8% under_2.5 20.2% over_3.5 62.3%
under_3.5 37.7% over_4.5 43.7% under_4.5 56.3%
over_5.5 27.6% under_5.5 72.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 60.6% under_1.5 39.4% over_2.5 34.5%
under_2.5 65.5%
team_away
over_1.5 65.0% under_1.5 35.0% over_2.5 39.3%
under_2.5 60.7%
most
home 37.1% draw 19.2% away 43.7%
handicap
home_-1.5 20.9% away_+1.5 79.1% home_-0.5 37.1%
away_+0.5 62.9% home_+0.5 56.3% away_-0.5 43.7%
home_+1.5 73.9% away_-1.5 26.1%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 75.7% under_20.5 24.3% over_22.5 63.0%
under_22.5 37.0% over_24.5 49.1% under_24.5 50.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 75.1% under_9.5 24.9% over_11.5 56.3%
under_11.5 43.7% over_13.5 37.2% under_13.5 62.8%
team_away
over_9.5 73.7% under_9.5 26.3% over_11.5 54.5%
under_11.5 45.5% over_13.5 35.5% under_13.5 64.5%
most
home 47.8% draw 7.0% away 45.2%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.0% away_+3.5 72.0% home_-0.5 47.8%
away_+0.5 52.2% home_+2.5 68.1% away_-2.5 31.9%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 18.9% no 81.1%
home
yes 5.0% no 95.0%
away
yes 14.7% no 85.3%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55416 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Alaves predictions · Ath Madrid predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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