Malaga vs Espanol: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 22 Sep 2026

La Liga

Malaga

LDDLL

Fri, 9 Oct 20269/1020:00UK

Espanol

LDWLL

Model’s top convictions

74%

Over 1.5 goals

67%

Malaga or draw

61%

Draw or Espanol

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Malaga39.5%

Win probability · fair 2.53

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsLikely73.7%Fair 1.36

Malaga or drawLikely67.4%Fair 1.48

Draw or EspanolLikely60.5%Fair 1.65

Model read

"Malaga or Espanol? We publish probabilities, not certainties." Expect a tight one: the model splits Malaga and Espanol almost evenly, Malaga marginally on top at 39%. No strong lean on goals (48% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. Recent form reads W0 D3 L3 for Malaga against W1 D1 L4 for Espanol. The recent series reads 0 wins for Malaga, 2 draws and 3 for Espanol over 5 games, 2.6 goals on average. Carlos Dotor drives the home shot volume, 0.6 on target per 90. Malaga are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The engine passes on this one (no bookmaker price published for this match yet).

Value & higher-risk angles

Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.

High risk

Over 2.5 goals47.9%@ 2.09

Over 10.5 corners37.7%@ 2.65

Espanol win32.7%@ 3.06

Medium risk

Over 8.5 corners58.9%@ 1.70

Both teams to score53.3%@ 1.88

Under 2.5 goals52.1%@ 1.92

Random finds

1-1 correct score13.2%@ 7.59

1-0 correct score9.5%@ 10.58

0-1 correct score8.7%@ 11.48

Model vs market

Malaga

39.5%

Draw

27.9%

Espanol

32.7%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely73.7%Fair 1.36

Over 2.5Close call47.9%Fair 2.09

BTTS · YesClose call53.3%Fair 1.88

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersClose call58.9%Fair 1.70

Over 9.5 cornersClose call48.0%Fair 2.08

Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely37.7%Fair 2.65

Over 11.5 cornersLong shot28.6%Fair 3.50

Most cornersMalaga55.9%Espanol33.3%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsLikely63.9%Fair 1.57

Over 24.5 shotsClose call51.3%Fair 1.95

Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely39.0%Fair 2.57

Over 28.5 shotsLong shot27.9%Fair 3.59

Recent shot volume

Malaga10.8 taken14.8 faced

Espanol13.2 taken13.3 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.

Malaga (6 games)

4.8 / 6.2

Espanol (6 games)

4.3 / 8.8

Totals line guide

0.5·1.573.7%2.547.9%3.5·4.5·

Recommended focusOver 1.573.7%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

MalagaLDDLL

EspanolLDWLL

Last 5 meetings: Malaga 0 · 2 draws · Espanol 3 · 2.6 goals/game.

2018-05-13Espanol 4-1 Malaga

2018-01-08Malaga 0-1 Espanol

2017-02-04Malaga 0-1 Espanol

2016-08-26Espanol 2-2 Malaga

2016-04-03Malaga 1-1 Espanol

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Malaga

Espanol

League position#20 of 20#15 of 20

Record W-D-L0-3-42-1-4

Current streakL2L2

Points per game0.431.00

Record, home vs away0-2-11-0-2

PPG, home vs away0.671.00

Goals scored per game0.431.43

Goals conceded per game1.711.43

Scored, home vs away0.671.33

Conceded, home vs away1.331.33

1st half goals per game0.290.86

2nd half goals per game0.140.57

Corners won per game5.42.1

Cards per game1.93.0

Fouls per game12.917.1

Red cards this season01

Shots per game10.013.6

Shots faced per game14.912.0

Shots on target per game2.03.9

1st half shots per game4.65.0

2nd half shots per game5.68.6

xG for per game0.811.35

xG against per game2.001.46

Over 2.5 rate

28.6%71.4%

BTTS rate

42.9%71.4%

Clean sheets

14.3%28.6%

Rates this season:MalagaEspanol

League averages this season: 3.04 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 56% · BTTS in 58%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Carlos DotorMalaga · key player

To score15.6%6.41

1+ on target39.3%2.54

2+ shots14.5%6.90

Shots/90 0.75SoT/90 0.56Goals/90 0.19

Pere MillaEspanol · key player

To score16.7%5.99

1+ on target37.6%2.66

2+ shots38.2%2.62

Shots/90 2.75SoT/90 0.98Goals/90 0.38

Juan CruzMalaga · in form

To score8.3%12.05

1+ on target29.2%3.42

2+ shots22.2%4.50

Shots/90 1.23SoT/90 0.48Goals/90 0.12

Bryan ZaragozaEspanol · in form

To score3.9%25.64

1+ on target41.9%2.39

2+ shots38.5%2.60

Shots/90 1.99SoT/90 0.81Goals/90 0.06

ChupeMalaga · in form

To score13.2%7.58

1+ on target34.6%2.89

2+ shots63.0%1.59

Shots/90 2.42SoT/90 0.48Goals/90 0.16

Roberto FernándezEspanol · in form

To score25.9%3.86

1+ on target43.8%2.28

2+ shots44.2%2.26

Shots/90 1.9SoT/90 0.73Goals/90 0.38

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Malaga win2.60

Draw3.62

Espanol win2.96

Both teams to score1.88

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09

Over 1.5 goals1.36

Over 2.5 goals2.09

Over 3.5 goals3.81

Malaga most2.60

Espanol most2.96

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.37

Over 8.5 corners1.63

Over 9.5 corners2.04

Over 10.5 corners2.68

Malaga most1.79

Espanol most2.99

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.24

Over 3.5 cards1.56

Over 4.5 cards2.19

Over 5.5 cards3.40

Malaga most2.86

Espanol most2.16

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.34

Over 7.5 SoT1.59

Over 8.5 SoT2.00

Over 9.5 SoT2.65

Malaga most1.69

Espanol most3.50

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.57

Over 24.5 shots1.95

Over 26.5 shots2.57

Over 28.5 shots3.59

Malaga most1.54

Espanol most3.43

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.23

Over 22.5 fouls1.43

Over 24.5 fouls1.76

All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5	63.9%	Over 24.5	51.3%	Over 26.5	39.0%	Over 28.5	27.9%
Most: Malaga	65.1%	Most: Espanol	29.2%
Malaga Over 13.2	51.5%	Espanol Over 13.2	26.0%

Shots on target

Over 6.5	74.8%	Over 7.5	62.8%	Over 8.5	50.0%	Over 9.5	37.7%
Most: Malaga	59.3%	Most: Espanol	28.6%
Malaga Over 4.2	54.5%	Espanol Over 4.2	32.0%

Cards

Over 2.5	80.9%	Over 3.5	63.9%	Over 4.5	45.6%
Most: Malaga	35.0%	Most: Espanol	46.2%
Malaga Over 1.8	60.0%	Espanol Over 1.8	67.5%

Malaga: players to watch (recent-form projection)

Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Carlos Dotor	0.75	0.56	0.19	39.3%	14.5%	15.6%
Juan Cruz	1.23	0.48	0.12	29.2%	22.2%	8.3%
Chupe	2.42	0.48	0.16	34.6%	63.0%	13.2%
David Larrubia	1.88	0.31	0	24.6%	51.0%	0.0%
Pablo Martínez	1.28	0.21	0.04	14.7%	25.3%	3.0%

Espanol: players to watch (recent-form projection)

Player	Shots/90	SoT/90	Goals/90	1+ SoT	2+ shots	To score
Pere Milla	2.75	0.98	0.38	37.6%	38.2%	16.7%
Bryan Zaragoza	1.99	0.81	0.06	41.9%	38.5%	3.9%
Roberto Fernández	1.9	0.73	0.38	43.8%	44.2%	25.9%
Javi Hernández	1.72	0.62	0	43.3%	46.6%	0.0%
Jofre Carreras	1.9	0.52	0.13	23.6%	25.7%	6.5%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.

Malaga clean sheet	28.7%
Espanol clean sheet	26.0%
Malaga win to nil	20.6%
Espanol win to nil	17.9%

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.

Match result & goals calibrated

1×2

home	38.5%	draw	27.7%	away	33.8%

double_chance

1X	66.2%	12	72.3%	X2	61.5%

dnb

home	53.2%	away	46.8%

btts

yes	53.3%	no	46.7%

clean_sheet

home	28.8%	away	26.1%

win_to_nil

home	20.6%	away	17.9%

winning_margin

home_by_1	20.6%	home_by_2	11.5%	home_by_3plus	6.4%
away_by_1	19.1%	away_by_2	9.8%	away_by_3plus	5.0%

correct_score

0-0	8.1%	0-1	8.7%	0-2	5.8%
0-3	2.4%	0-4	0.8%	0-5	0.2%
1-0	9.5%	1-1	13.2%	1-2	7.8%
1-3	3.3%	1-4	1.0%	1-5	0.3%
2-0	6.8%	2-1	8.5%	2-2	5.3%
2-3	2.2%	2-4	0.7%	2-5	0.2%
3-0	3.0%	3-1	3.8%	3-2	2.4%
3-3	1.0%	3-4	0.3%	3-5	0.1%
4-0	1.0%	4-1	1.3%	4-2	0.8%
4-3	0.3%	4-4	0.1%	4-5	0.0%
5-0	0.3%	5-1	0.3%	5-2	0.2%
5-3	0.1%	5-4	0.0%	5-5	0.0%
other	0.4%

likeliest_score

h	100.0%	a	100.0%	p	13.2%

Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated

total

over_0.5	91.9%	under_0.5	8.1%	over_1.5	73.7%
under_1.5	26.3%	over_2.5	47.9%	under_2.5	52.1%
over_3.5	26.2%	under_3.5	73.8%	over_4.5	12.1%
under_4.5	87.9%	over_5.5	4.9%	under_5.5	95.2%

odd_even

odd	48.5%	even	51.5%

team_home

over_0.5	74.0%	under_0.5	26.1%	over_1.5	38.9%
under_1.5	61.1%	over_2.5	15.4%	under_2.5	84.7%

team_away

over_0.5	71.2%	under_0.5	28.8%	over_1.5	35.4%
under_1.5	64.6%	over_2.5	13.1%	under_2.5	86.9%

most

home	38.5%	draw	27.7%	away	33.8%

handicap

home_-2.5	6.4%	away_+2.5	93.6%	home_-1.5	17.9%
away_+1.5	82.1%	home_-0.5	38.5%	away_+0.5	61.5%
home_+0.5	66.2%	away_-0.5	33.8%	home_+1.5	85.2%
away_-1.5	14.8%	home_+2.5	95.0%	away_-2.5	5.0%

total_exact

exact_0	8.1%	exact_1	18.2%	exact_2	25.8%
exact_3	21.7%	exact_4	14.1%	exact_5	7.3%
exact_6	3.2%	exact_7plus	1.7%

First half range, not a point

1×2

home	27.2%	draw	44.4%	away	28.4%

total

over_0.5	66.4%	under_0.5	33.6%	over_1.5	29.7%
under_1.5	70.3%	over_2.5	9.8%	under_2.5	90.3%

btts

yes	17.6%	no	82.4%

total_exact

exact_0	33.6%	exact_1	36.7%	exact_2	20.0%
exact_3	7.2%	exact_4plus	2.5%

Second half range, not a point

1×2

home	25.9%	draw	43.9%	away	30.2%

total

over_0.5	67.0%	under_0.5	33.0%	over_1.5	30.5%
under_1.5	69.6%	over_2.5	10.2%	under_2.5	89.9%

btts

yes	18.1%	no	81.9%

Half-time / full-time range, not a point

H/H	20.5%	H/D	5.0%	H/A	1.7%
D/H	11.5%	D/D	19.5%	D/A	13.4%
A/H	1.3%	A/D	4.6%	A/A	22.5%

Corners range, not a point

total

over_7.5	72.9%	under_7.5	27.1%	over_8.5	61.3%
under_8.5	38.7%	over_9.5	49.1%	under_9.5	50.9%
over_10.5	37.4%	under_10.5	62.6%	over_11.5	27.1%
under_11.5	72.9%	over_12.5	18.7%	under_12.5	81.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	74.3%	under_3.5	25.7%	over_4.5	59.2%
under_4.5	40.8%	over_5.5	43.9%	under_5.5	56.1%

team_away

over_3.5	59.3%	under_3.5	40.7%	over_4.5	42.0%
under_4.5	58.0%	over_5.5	27.3%	under_5.5	72.7%

most

home	56.0%	draw	10.6%	away	33.4%

handicap

home_-3.5	25.0%	away_+3.5	75.0%	home_-1.5	45.0%
away_+1.5	55.0%	home_-0.5	56.0%	away_+0.5	44.0%
home_+0.5	66.6%	away_-0.5	33.4%	home_+1.5	76.0%
away_-1.5	24.0%	home_+3.5	89.6%	away_-3.5	10.4%

Shots range, not a point

total

over_22.5	63.9%	under_22.5	36.1%	over_24.5	51.3%
under_24.5	48.7%	over_26.5	39.0%	under_26.5	61.0%
over_28.5	27.9%	under_28.5	72.1%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_10.5	75.6%	under_10.5	24.4%	over_12.5	59.8%
under_12.5	40.2%	over_14.5	43.3%	under_14.5	56.7%

team_away

over_10.5	51.8%	under_10.5	48.2%	over_12.5	33.7%
under_12.5	66.3%	over_14.5	19.6%	under_14.5	80.4%

most

home	65.1%	draw	5.8%	away	29.2%

handicap

home_-4.5	39.9%	away_+4.5	60.1%	home_-2.5	52.6%
away_+2.5	47.4%	home_-0.5	65.1%	away_+0.5	34.9%
home_+0.5	70.8%	away_-0.5	29.2%	home_+2.5	80.8%
away_-2.5	19.2%	home_+4.5	88.3%	away_-4.5	11.7%

Shots on target range, not a point

total

over_6.5	74.8%	under_6.5	25.2%	over_7.5	62.8%
under_7.5	37.2%	over_8.5	50.0%	under_8.5	50.0%
over_9.5	37.7%	under_9.5	62.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_3.5	71.3%	under_3.5	28.7%	over_4.5	54.5%
under_4.5	45.5%	over_5.5	38.2%	under_5.5	61.8%

team_away

over_3.5	50.3%	under_3.5	49.7%	over_4.5	32.1%
under_4.5	68.0%	over_5.5	18.3%	under_5.5	81.7%

most

home	59.3%	draw	12.1%	away	28.6%

handicap

home_-2.5	33.9%	away_+2.5	66.1%	home_-0.5	59.3%
away_+0.5	40.7%	home_+0.5	71.4%	away_-0.5	28.6%
home_+2.5	88.9%	away_-2.5	11.1%

Cards calibrated

total

over_2.5	80.9%	under_2.5	19.1%	over_3.5	63.9%
under_3.5	36.1%	over_4.5	45.6%	under_4.5	54.4%
over_5.5	29.4%	under_5.5	70.6%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_1.5	60.1%	under_1.5	40.0%	over_2.5	34.1%
under_2.5	65.9%

team_away

over_1.5	67.5%	under_1.5	32.5%	over_2.5	42.3%
under_2.5	57.7%

most

home	35.0%	draw	18.8%	away	46.2%

handicap

home_-1.5	19.5%	away_+1.5	80.5%	home_-0.5	35.0%
away_+0.5	65.0%	home_+0.5	53.8%	away_-0.5	46.2%
home_+1.5	71.5%	away_-1.5	28.5%

Fouls calibrated

total

over_20.5	81.1%	under_20.5	18.9%	over_22.5	69.8%
under_22.5	30.2%	over_24.5	56.8%	under_24.5	43.3%

odd_even

odd	50.0%	even	50.0%

team_home

over_9.5	74.7%	under_9.5	25.3%	over_11.5	55.8%
under_11.5	44.2%	over_13.5	36.8%	under_13.5	63.2%

team_away

over_9.5	81.6%	under_9.5	18.4%	over_11.5	65.2%
under_11.5	34.8%	over_13.5	46.6%	under_13.5	53.4%

most

home	39.7%	draw	6.7%	away	53.6%

handicap

home_-3.5	22.0%	away_+3.5	78.0%	home_-0.5	39.7%
away_+0.5	60.3%	home_+2.5	60.0%	away_-2.5	40.0%

Red card range, not a point

any

yes	10.5%	no	89.5%

home

yes	5.2%	no	94.8%

away

yes	5.6%	no	94.4%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0097 (55560 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Malaga predictions · Espanol predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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