Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Model pick
Aston Villa38.3%
Win probability · fair 2.61
Top signals
Over 1.5 goalsVery likely78.9%Fair 1.27
Aston Villa or drawLikely64.4%Fair 1.55
Over 8.5 cornersLikely62.2%Fair 1.61
Model read
▾
Expect a tight one: the model splits Aston Villa and Brentford almost evenly, Aston Villa marginally on top at 38%. Three angles decide this preview: 1) Totals sit close to the fence: 55% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 59%. 2) For shots markets, Nicolas Jackson is the obvious watch at 1.4 on target per 90 in recent data. 3) Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 2 wins for Aston Villa, 1 draws and 2 for Brentford, averaging 2.6 goals a game. Form guide over the last six: Aston Villa W2 D1 L3, Brentford W2 D4 L0. On the availability front, Aston Villa have M.Bizot ruled out, Digne ruled out, Pau ruled out, Maatsen ruled out. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Value & higher-risk angles
Outcomes the model rates higher than the obvious price suggests, plus a few long-shot scorelines that are simply possible. These are the least likely calls on the page, so treat them as such. They are not tips, and we do not beat the sharp bookmakers.
High risk
Over 10.5 corners42.4%@ 2.36
Brentford win35.6%@ 2.81
Over 11.5 corners33.6%@ 2.98
Medium risk
Draw or Brentford61.7%@ 1.62
Both teams to score58.9%@ 1.70
Over 2.5 goals55.0%@ 1.82
Random finds
1-1 correct score12.2%@ 8.20
2-1 correct score8.5%@ 11.82
1-2 correct score8.3%@ 12.06
Model vs market
Aston Villa
38.3%
Draw
26.1%
Brentford
35.6%
Model
no bookmaker price published for this match yet
Goals
Over 1.5Strongest read · Very likely78.9%Fair 1.27
Over 2.5Close call55.0%Fair 1.82
BTTS · YesClose call58.9%Fair 1.70
Corners
Over 8.5 cornersLikely62.2%Fair 1.61
Over 9.5 cornersClose call52.1%Fair 1.92
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely42.4%Fair 2.36
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely33.6%Fair 2.98
Most cornersAston Villa54.6%Brentford35.3%
Shots
Over 22.5 shotsLikely63.7%Fair 1.57
Over 24.5 shotsClose call52.1%Fair 1.92
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely40.7%Fair 2.46
Over 28.5 shotsUnlikely30.2%Fair 3.31
Recent shot volume
Aston Villa10.0 taken16.2 faced
Brentford15.3 taken15.2 faced
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
First half / second half shots
Shots before and after the break, per game, across the number of games in brackets. The bar shows how much of the shooting happens in the first half. These come from a different source than the match shot totals above, and we only count a match when the shots before the break add up to the actual half-time score. A match where they did not is left out rather than guessed at, which is why the two sets of numbers can differ.
Aston Villa (5 games)
5.2 / 4.6
Brentford (5 games)
6.8 / 9.4
Totals line guide
0.5·1.578.9%2.555.0%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.578.9%
Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.
Form & head-to-head
Aston VillaLLDLW
BrentfordWDDDW
Last 5 meetings: Aston Villa 2 · 1 draws · Brentford 2 · 2.6 goals/game.
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
Nicolas JacksonAston Villa · key player
To score24.9%4.02
1+ on target60.2%1.66
2+ shots62.0%1.61
Shots/90 3.07SoT/90 1.35Goals/90 0.42
ThiagoBrentford · key player
To score36.1%2.77
1+ on target60.2%1.66
2+ shots57.7%1.73
Shots/90 2.29SoT/90 1.09Goals/90 0.53
Ibrahim MbayeAston Villa · in form
To score11.9%8.40
1+ on target39.3%2.54
2+ shots29.9%3.34
Shots/90 2.5SoT/90 1.14Goals/90 0.29
Callum WilsonBrentford · in form
To score12.5%8.00
1+ on target27.5%3.64
2+ shots21.6%4.63
Shots/90 2.67SoT/90 0.99Goals/90 0.41
Alejandro GarnachoAston Villa · in form
To score10.1%9.90
1+ on target43.3%2.31
2+ shots56.0%1.79
Shots/90 3.01SoT/90 0.91Goals/90 0.17
Kevin SchadeBrentford · in form
To score25.9%3.86
1+ on target52.2%1.92
2+ shots49.5%2.02
Shots/90 2.05SoT/90 0.91Goals/90 0.37
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Aston Villa win2.66
Draw3.84
Brentford win2.75
Both teams to score1.70
Goals
Over 0.5 goals1.07
Over 1.5 goals1.27
Over 2.5 goals1.82
Over 3.5 goals3.06
Aston Villa most2.66
Brentford most2.75
Corners
Over 7.5 corners1.31
Over 8.5 corners1.52
Over 9.5 corners1.84
Over 10.5 corners2.33
Aston Villa most1.83
Brentford most2.82
Cards
Over 2.5 cards1.33
Over 3.5 cards1.82
Over 4.5 cards2.82
Over 5.5 cards4.96
Aston Villa most3.61
Brentford most1.91
Shots on target
Over 6.5 SoT1.36
Over 7.5 SoT1.61
Over 8.5 SoT1.98
Over 9.5 SoT2.56
Aston Villa most1.87
Brentford most2.87
Shots
Over 22.5 shots1.57
Over 24.5 shots1.92
Over 26.5 shots2.46
Over 28.5 shots3.31
Aston Villa most1.64
Brentford most2.99
Fouls
Over 20.5 fouls1.80
Over 22.5 fouls2.54
Over 24.5 fouls3.97
Team news
Most likely availability, voted across independent sources. A model input, not a confirmed lineup.
M.BizotAston VillaOut0% to play
DigneAston VillaOut0% to play
PauAston VillaOut0% to play
MaatsenAston VillaOut0% to play
NedeljkovicAston VillaOut0% to play
BaileyAston VillaOut0% to play
OnanaAston VillaOut0% to play
Iling JrAston VillaOut0% to play
AlyssonAston VillaDoubtful75% to play
WatkinsAston VillaOut0% to play
MadjoAston VillaOut0% to play
LynchAston VillaOut0% to play
GoretzkaAston VillaOut0% to play
Boubacar Kamara, Youri TielemansAston VillaOut
What the absences carry
Share of the squad’s total expected goal involvement (xG + xA) this season. It is a measure of what the team is missing, not a prediction of the result: we do not publish a re-run win probability, because estimating who replaces him is a model change that has to be validated first.
Ian MaatsenAston Villa5.1%8.1 xG+xA in 2,921 min
Marco BizotAston Villa0.0%0.0 xG+xA in 3,193 min
Nathan CollinsBrentford4.9%10.3 xG+xA in 6,132 min
Mathias JensenBrentford4.3%9.1 xG+xA in 2,900 min
Vitaly JaneltBrentford4.2%8.8 xG+xA in 3,777 min
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots
Over 22.5
63.7%
Over 24.5
52.1%
Over 26.5
40.7%
Over 28.5
30.2%
Most: Aston Villa
61.0%
Most: Brentford
33.4%
Aston Villa Over 13.2
49.8%
Brentford Over 13.2
30.1%
Shots on target
Over 6.5
73.7%
Over 7.5
62.3%
Over 8.5
50.4%
Over 9.5
39.1%
Most: Aston Villa
53.3%
Most: Brentford
34.8%
Aston Villa Over 4.2
50.4%
Brentford Over 4.2
37.0%
Cards
Over 2.5
74.9%
Over 3.5
55.0%
Over 4.5
35.5%
Most: Aston Villa
27.7%
Most: Brentford
52.3%
Aston Villa Over 1.8
48.7%
Brentford Over 1.8
66.4%
Aston Villa: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Nicolas Jackson
3.07
1.35
0.42
60.2%
62.0%
24.9%
Ibrahim Mbaye
2.5
1.14
0.29
39.3%
29.9%
11.9%
Alejandro Garnacho
3.01
0.91
0.17
43.3%
56.0%
10.1%
Tammy Abraham
2.19
0.84
0.26
26.7%
19.4%
9.2%
Ross Barkley
2.21
0.81
0.35
28.2%
22.9%
13.4%
Brentford: players to watch (recent-form projection)
Each number is the player’s recent rate per 90 minutes, scaled to how long we expect them to play. Only players in this season’s squad appear. It is a projection from recent form, not a confirmed lineup: nobody has announced the team yet.
Player
Shots/90
SoT/90
Goals/90
1+ SoT
2+ shots
To score
Thiago
2.29
1.09
0.53
60.2%
57.7%
36.1%
Callum Wilson
2.67
0.99
0.41
27.5%
21.6%
12.5%
Kevin Schade
2.05
0.91
0.37
52.2%
49.5%
25.9%
Dango Ouattara
2.49
0.81
0.29
45.1%
55.1%
19.3%
Jaidon Anthony
1.77
0.71
0.27
43.6%
41.7%
19.6%
Clean sheet & win to nil
Worked out from the scoreline grid above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the other side fails to score. It is the model’s own percentage, scored against the result afterwards, and it is not a tip.
Aston Villa clean sheet
23.9%
Brentford clean sheet
23.2%
Aston Villa win to nil
17.7%
Brentford win to nil
17.1%
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
The model’s own percentages, with no odds attached. The smaller markets are here so you can see everything we hold a number on, not because we claim an advantage in them. The colour says how close our percentages have landed to reality on matches the model had never seen.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home
37.7%
draw
26.0%
away
36.4%
double_chance
1X
63.7%
12
74.0%
X2
62.4%
dnb
home
50.9%
away
49.1%
btts
yes
58.9%
no
41.1%
clean_sheet
home
24.0%
away
23.3%
win_to_nil
home
17.8%
away
17.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1
19.5%
home_by_2
11.3%
home_by_3plus
6.9%
away_by_1
19.1%
away_by_2
10.8%
away_by_3plus
6.4%
correct_score
0-0
6.2%
0-1
7.4%
0-2
5.7%
0-3
2.7%
0-4
1.0%
0-5
0.3%
1-0
7.6%
1-1
12.2%
1-2
8.3%
1-3
4.0%
1-4
1.4%
1-5
0.4%
2-0
5.9%
2-1
8.5%
2-2
6.0%
2-3
2.9%
2-4
1.0%
2-5
0.3%
3-0
2.9%
3-1
4.1%
3-2
2.9%
3-3
1.4%
3-4
0.5%
3-5
0.1%
4-0
1.1%
4-1
1.5%
4-2
1.1%
4-3
0.5%
4-4
0.2%
4-5
0.1%
5-0
0.3%
5-1
0.4%
5-2
0.3%
5-3
0.2%
5-4
0.1%
5-5
0.0%
other
0.7%
likeliest_score
h
100.0%
a
100.0%
p
12.2%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5
93.8%
under_0.5
6.2%
over_1.5
78.9%
under_1.5
21.1%
over_2.5
55.0%
under_2.5
45.0%
over_3.5
32.7%
under_3.5
67.3%
over_4.5
16.6%
under_4.5
83.4%
over_5.5
7.3%
under_5.5
92.7%
odd_even
odd
48.7%
even
51.3%
team_home
over_0.5
76.7%
under_0.5
23.3%
over_1.5
42.7%
under_1.5
57.3%
over_2.5
18.0%
under_2.5
82.0%
team_away
over_0.5
76.0%
under_0.5
24.0%
over_1.5
41.8%
under_1.5
58.3%
over_2.5
17.3%
under_2.5
82.7%
most
home
37.7%
draw
26.0%
away
36.4%
handicap
home_-2.5
6.9%
away_+2.5
93.2%
home_-1.5
18.1%
away_+1.5
81.9%
home_-0.5
37.7%
away_+0.5
62.4%
home_+0.5
63.7%
away_-0.5
36.4%
home_+1.5
82.8%
away_-1.5
17.2%
home_+2.5
93.6%
away_-2.5
6.4%
total_exact
exact_0
6.2%
exact_1
15.0%
exact_2
23.8%
exact_3
22.4%
exact_4
16.1%
exact_5
9.3%
exact_6
4.5%
exact_7plus
2.8%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home
27.0%
draw
43.5%
away
29.5%
total
over_0.5
67.6%
under_0.5
32.4%
over_1.5
31.1%
under_1.5
68.9%
over_2.5
10.5%
under_2.5
89.5%
btts
yes
18.5%
no
81.5%
total_exact
exact_0
32.4%
exact_1
36.5%
exact_2
20.6%
exact_3
7.7%
exact_4plus
2.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home
33.5%
draw
33.7%
away
32.8%
total
over_0.5
82.2%
under_0.5
17.8%
over_1.5
51.5%
under_1.5
48.5%
over_2.5
25.0%
under_2.5
75.0%
btts
yes
33.4%
no
66.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H
19.6%
H/D
4.9%
H/A
2.4%
D/H
14.6%
D/D
14.7%
D/A
14.3%
A/H
2.7%
A/D
5.4%
A/A
21.4%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5
76.4%
under_7.5
23.6%
over_8.5
65.8%
under_8.5
34.2%
over_9.5
54.3%
under_9.5
45.7%
over_10.5
42.9%
under_10.5
57.1%
over_11.5
32.4%
under_11.5
67.6%
over_12.5
23.5%
under_12.5
76.5%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
75.0%
under_3.5
25.0%
over_4.5
60.9%
under_4.5
39.1%
over_5.5
46.5%
under_5.5
53.5%
team_away
over_3.5
62.5%
under_3.5
37.5%
over_4.5
46.2%
under_4.5
53.8%
over_5.5
31.8%
under_5.5
68.2%
most
home
54.7%
draw
9.8%
away
35.4%
handicap
home_-3.5
26.3%
away_+3.5
73.7%
home_-1.5
44.7%
away_+1.5
55.4%
home_-0.5
54.7%
away_+0.5
45.3%
home_+0.5
64.6%
away_-0.5
35.4%
home_+1.5
73.5%
away_-1.5
26.5%
home_+3.5
87.1%
away_-3.5
12.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5
63.7%
under_22.5
36.3%
over_24.5
52.1%
under_24.5
47.9%
over_26.5
40.7%
under_26.5
59.3%
over_28.5
30.2%
under_28.5
69.8%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_10.5
72.5%
under_10.5
27.5%
over_12.5
57.5%
under_12.5
42.5%
over_14.5
42.3%
under_14.5
57.7%
team_away
over_10.5
54.3%
under_10.5
45.8%
over_12.5
37.5%
under_12.5
62.5%
over_14.5
23.7%
under_14.5
76.3%
most
home
61.0%
draw
5.6%
away
33.4%
handicap
home_-4.5
37.7%
away_+4.5
62.3%
home_-2.5
49.3%
away_+2.5
50.7%
home_-0.5
61.0%
away_+0.5
39.0%
home_+0.5
66.6%
away_-0.5
33.4%
home_+2.5
76.5%
away_-2.5
23.5%
home_+4.5
84.6%
away_-4.5
15.4%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5
73.7%
under_6.5
26.4%
over_7.5
62.3%
under_7.5
37.7%
over_8.5
50.4%
under_8.5
49.6%
over_9.5
39.1%
under_9.5
60.9%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_3.5
66.6%
under_3.5
33.4%
over_4.5
50.4%
under_4.5
49.6%
over_5.5
35.5%
under_5.5
64.5%
team_away
over_3.5
54.1%
under_3.5
45.9%
over_4.5
37.0%
under_4.5
63.0%
over_5.5
23.3%
under_5.5
76.7%
most
home
53.3%
draw
11.9%
away
34.8%
handicap
home_-2.5
30.1%
away_+2.5
69.9%
home_-0.5
53.3%
away_+0.5
46.7%
home_+0.5
65.2%
away_-0.5
34.8%
home_+2.5
84.1%
away_-2.5
15.9%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5
74.9%
under_2.5
25.1%
over_3.5
55.0%
under_3.5
45.0%
over_4.5
35.5%
under_4.5
64.5%
over_5.5
20.2%
under_5.5
79.8%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_1.5
48.7%
under_1.5
51.3%
over_2.5
22.7%
under_2.5
77.3%
team_away
over_1.5
66.4%
under_1.5
33.6%
over_2.5
39.8%
under_2.5
60.2%
most
home
27.7%
draw
20.0%
away
52.3%
handicap
home_-1.5
13.2%
away_+1.5
86.9%
home_-0.5
27.7%
away_+0.5
72.3%
home_+0.5
47.7%
away_-0.5
52.3%
home_+1.5
68.0%
away_-1.5
32.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5
55.7%
under_20.5
44.3%
over_22.5
39.4%
under_22.5
60.6%
over_24.5
25.2%
under_24.5
74.8%
odd_even
odd
50.0%
even
50.0%
team_home
over_9.5
49.5%
under_9.5
50.5%
over_11.5
27.1%
under_11.5
73.0%
over_13.5
12.0%
under_13.5
87.9%
team_away
over_9.5
72.1%
under_9.5
27.9%
over_11.5
50.3%
under_11.5
49.7%
over_13.5
29.6%
under_13.5
70.4%
most
home
29.7%
draw
7.6%
away
62.7%
handicap
home_-3.5
12.3%
away_+3.5
87.7%
home_-0.5
29.7%
away_+0.5
70.3%
home_+2.5
53.8%
away_-2.5
46.2%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes
3.3%
no
96.7%
home
yes
2.5%
no
97.5%
away
yes
0.8%
no
99.2%
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Premier League
Aston Villa
Brentford