Ath Bilbao vs Alaves prediction & probabilities (2026-09-19)

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Ath Bilbao vs Alaves: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 17 Sep 2026

La Liga
Ath Bilbao

LLWWD

Sat, 19 Sep 202615:15UK26°C · Clear
Alaves

WDWWL

Model’s top convictions

74%

Over 1.5 goals

73%

Ath Bilbao or draw

61%

Over 8.5 corners

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Model pick

Ath Bilbao45.6%

Win probability · fair 2.19

Top signals

Over 1.5 goalsLikely73.5%Fair 1.36
Ath Bilbao or drawLikely72.8%Fair 1.37
Over 8.5 cornersLikely60.9%Fair 1.64

Model read

The model leans Ath Bilbao at 46% when Ath Bilbao host Alaves in the La Liga on 19 September 2026. A lean, though, not a lock. No strong lean on goals (48% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. History adds colour: across the last 5 meetings it is 3 wins for Ath Bilbao, 1 draws and 1 for Alaves at 2.4 goals per match. Form guide over the last six: Ath Bilbao W2 D1 L3, Alaves W3 D1 L2. Gorka Guruzeta drives the home shot volume, 1.1 on target per 90. Verdict: no bet. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 2.5 goals47.7%@ 2.10
Over 10.5 corners39.8%@ 2.51
Over 11.5 corners30.5%@ 3.28
Medium risk

Draw or Alaves54.4%@ 1.84
Under 2.5 goals52.3%@ 1.91
Both teams to score52.3%@ 1.91
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.0%@ 7.72
1-0 correct score10.5%@ 9.50
2-1 correct score9.1%@ 11.00

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Ath Bilbao

45.6%

Draw

27.2%

Alaves

27.2%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals

Over 1.5Strongest read · Likely73.5%Fair 1.36
Over 2.5Close call47.7%Fair 2.10
BTTS · YesClose call52.3%Fair 1.91

Corners

Over 8.5 cornersLikely60.9%Fair 1.64
Over 9.5 cornersClose call50.1%Fair 2.00
Over 10.5 cornersUnlikely39.8%Fair 2.51
Over 11.5 cornersUnlikely30.5%Fair 3.28
Most cornersAth Bilbao60.4%Alaves29.3%

Shots

Over 22.5 shotsClose call59.5%Fair 1.68
Over 24.5 shotsClose call46.7%Fair 2.14
Over 26.5 shotsUnlikely34.6%Fair 2.89
Over 28.5 shotsLong shot24.0%Fair 4.16

Recent shot volume

Ath Bilbao13.0 taken11.3 faced
Alaves14.8 taken11.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Ath Bilbao (5 games)

7.8 / 6.2

Alaves (5 games)

4.8 / 9.2

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.573.5%2.547.7%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.573.5%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

Ath BilbaoLLWWD
AlavesWDWWL

Last 5 meetings: Ath Bilbao 3 · 1 draws · Alaves 1 · 2.4 goals/game.

2026-05-02Alaves 2-4 Ath Bilbao
2025-09-13Ath Bilbao 0-1 Alaves
2025-05-11Ath Bilbao 1-0 Alaves
2024-12-15Alaves 1-1 Ath Bilbao
2024-03-16Ath Bilbao 2-0 Alaves

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Ath BilbaoAlaves
League position#9 of 20#6 of 20
Record W-D-L2-1-23-1-2
Current streakD1L2
Points per game1.401.67
Record, home vs away1-1-10-1-1
PPG, home vs away1.33·
Goals scored per game1.401.83
Goals conceded per game1.201.00
Scored, home vs away1.67·
Conceded, home vs away1.33·
1st half goals per game0.400.80
2nd half goals per game1.001.40
Corners won per game6.45.4
Cards per game2.22.6
Fouls per game10.615.0
Red cards this season10
Shots per game14.014.0
Shots faced per game11.010.2
Shots on target per game4.45.6
1st half shots per game7.84.8
2nd half shots per game6.29.2
xG for per game1.961.77
xG against per game1.531.02
Over 2.5 rate

40.0%50.0%

BTTS rate

40.0%50.0%

Clean sheets

40.0%33.3%

Rates this season:Ath BilbaoAlaves

League averages this season: 3.07 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 56% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Gorka GuruzetaAth Bilbao · key player
To score21.6%4.63
1+ on target50.2%1.99
2+ shots59.0%1.69
Shots/90 3.02SoT/90 1.06Goals/90 0.37
MarianoAlaves · key player
To score17.2%5.81
1+ on target49.7%2.01
2+ shots24.1%4.15
Shots/90 2.58SoT/90 1.89Goals/90 0.52
Maroan SannadiAth Bilbao · in form
To score6.8%14.71
1+ on target34.9%2.87
2+ shots27.8%3.60
Shots/90 2.49SoT/90 1.03Goals/90 0.17
Antonio MartínezAlaves · in form
To score21.1%4.74
1+ on target50.3%1.99
2+ shots62.5%1.60
Shots/90 3.21SoT/90 1.06Goals/90 0.36
Iñaki WilliamsAth Bilbao · in form
To score14.3%6.99
1+ on target52.4%1.91
2+ shots56.8%1.76
Shots/90 2.34SoT/90 0.91Goals/90 0.19
Lucas BoyéAlaves · in form
To score35.8%2.79
1+ on target53.3%1.88
2+ shots67.4%1.48
Shots/90 2.99SoT/90 0.98Goals/90 0.57

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Ath Bilbao win2.23
Draw3.68
Alaves win3.58
Both teams to score1.91

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.09
Over 1.5 goals1.36
Over 2.5 goals2.09
Over 3.5 goals3.84
Ath Bilbao most2.23
Alaves most3.58

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.33
Over 8.5 corners1.57
Over 9.5 corners1.94
Over 10.5 corners2.52
Ath Bilbao most1.65
Alaves most3.41

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.24
Over 3.5 cards1.59
Over 4.5 cards2.25
Over 5.5 cards3.54
Ath Bilbao most2.99
Alaves most2.10

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.40
Over 7.5 SoT1.70
Over 8.5 SoT2.19
Over 9.5 SoT2.97
Ath Bilbao most1.73
Alaves most3.35

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.68
Over 24.5 shots2.14
Over 26.5 shots2.89
Over 28.5 shots4.16
Ath Bilbao most1.49
Alaves most3.65

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.25
Over 22.5 fouls1.46
Over 24.5 fouls1.81
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 59.5% Over 24.5 46.7% Over 26.5 34.6% Over 28.5 24.0%
Most: Ath Bilbao 66.9% Most: Alaves 27.4%
Ath Bilbao Over 13.2 49.6% Alaves Over 13.2 22.0%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 71.4% Over 7.5 58.7% Over 8.5 45.7% Over 9.5 33.6%
Most: Ath Bilbao 57.7% Most: Alaves 29.8%
Ath Bilbao Over 4.2 50.4% Alaves Over 4.2 30.3%

Cards

Over 2.5 80.4% Over 3.5 63.1% Over 4.5 44.5%
Most: Ath Bilbao 33.4% Most: Alaves 47.6%
Ath Bilbao Over 1.8 58.5% Alaves Over 1.8 67.9%

Ath Bilbao: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Gorka Guruzeta 3.02 1.06 0.37 50.2% 59.0% 21.6%
Maroan Sannadi 2.49 1.03 0.17 34.9% 27.8% 6.8%
Iñaki Williams 2.34 0.91 0.19 52.4% 56.8% 14.3%
Oihan Sancet 2.74 0.87 0.44 44.9% 56.0% 26.0%
Alex Berenguer 1.95 0.8 0.18 45.4% 43.3% 12.7%

Alaves: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Mariano 2.58 1.89 0.52 49.7% 24.1% 17.2%
Antonio Martínez 3.21 1.06 0.36 50.3% 62.5% 21.1%
Lucas Boyé 2.99 0.98 0.57 53.3% 67.4% 35.8%
Abderrahmane Rebbach 1.77 0.63 0.04 31.1% 28.1% 2.3%
Carlos Benavídez 0.95 0.47 0.12 12.4% 3.0% 3.3%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Ath Bilbao clean sheet 32.9%
Alaves clean sheet 22.9%
Ath Bilbao win to nil 24.7%
Alaves win to nil 14.7%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 44.9% draw 27.2% away 27.9%
double_chance
1X 72.1% 12 72.8% X2 55.1%
dnb
home 61.7% away 38.3%
btts
yes 52.3% no 47.8%
clean_sheet
home 33.0% away 22.9%
win_to_nil
home 24.8% away 14.7%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.5% home_by_2 13.7% home_by_3plus 8.8%
away_by_1 16.8% away_by_2 7.8% away_by_3plus 3.4%
correct_score
0-0 8.2% 0-1 7.8% 0-2 4.7%
0-3 1.7% 0-4 0.5% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 10.5% 1-1 13.0% 1-2 6.8%
1-3 2.5% 1-4 0.7% 1-5 0.2%
2-0 8.2% 2-1 9.1% 2-2 5.0%
2-3 1.9% 2-4 0.5% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 4.0% 3-1 4.5% 3-2 2.5%
3-3 0.9% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 1.5% 4-1 1.6% 4-2 0.9%
4-3 0.3% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.4% 5-1 0.5% 5-2 0.3%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.5%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.8% under_0.5 8.2% over_1.5 73.5%
under_1.5 26.5% over_2.5 47.7% under_2.5 52.3%
over_3.5 26.1% under_3.5 74.0% over_4.5 12.0%
under_4.5 88.0% over_5.5 4.8% under_5.5 95.2%
odd_even
odd 48.5% even 51.5%
team_home
over_0.5 77.1% under_0.5 22.9% over_1.5 43.3%
under_1.5 56.7% over_2.5 18.5% under_2.5 81.6%
team_away
over_0.5 67.0% under_0.5 33.0% over_1.5 30.5%
under_1.5 69.5% over_2.5 10.2% under_2.5 89.8%
most
home 44.9% draw 27.2% away 27.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 8.8% away_+2.5 91.2% home_-1.5 22.5%
away_+1.5 77.6% home_-0.5 44.9% away_+0.5 55.1%
home_+0.5 72.1% away_-0.5 27.9% home_+1.5 88.8%
away_-1.5 11.2% home_+2.5 96.6% away_-2.5 3.4%
total_exact
exact_0 8.2% exact_1 18.3% exact_2 25.8%
exact_3 21.7% exact_4 14.0% exact_5 7.2%
exact_6 3.1% exact_7plus 1.7%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 26.2% draw 49.2% away 24.7%
total
over_0.5 59.5% under_0.5 40.5% over_1.5 22.9%
under_1.5 77.1% over_2.5 6.4% under_2.5 93.7%
btts
yes 13.2% no 86.8%
total_exact
exact_0 40.5% exact_1 36.6% exact_2 16.5%
exact_3 5.0% exact_4plus 1.4%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 41.9% draw 32.9% away 25.3%
total
over_0.5 82.7% under_0.5 17.3% over_1.5 52.3%
under_1.5 47.7% over_2.5 25.7% under_2.5 74.4%
btts
yes 33.1% no 66.9%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 20.6% H/D 4.0% H/A 1.6%
D/H 20.6% D/D 16.2% D/A 12.4%
A/H 3.5% A/D 5.5% A/A 15.7%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 74.9% under_7.5 25.1% over_8.5 63.6%
under_8.5 36.4% over_9.5 51.5% under_9.5 48.5%
over_10.5 39.7% under_10.5 60.3% over_11.5 29.2%
under_11.5 70.9% over_12.5 20.4% under_12.5 79.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 78.0% under_3.5 22.0% over_4.5 63.8%
under_4.5 36.2% over_5.5 48.8% under_5.5 51.2%
team_away
over_3.5 57.4% under_3.5 42.6% over_4.5 39.9%
under_4.5 60.1% over_5.5 25.4% under_5.5 74.6%
most
home 60.6% draw 10.1% away 29.3%
handicap
home_-3.5 29.2% away_+3.5 70.9% home_-1.5 49.8%
away_+1.5 50.2% home_-0.5 60.6% away_+0.5 39.4%
home_+0.5 70.7% away_-0.5 29.3% home_+1.5 79.4%
away_-1.5 20.6% home_+3.5 91.4% away_-3.5 8.6%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 59.5% under_22.5 40.5% over_24.5 46.7%
under_24.5 53.3% over_26.5 34.6% under_26.5 65.4%
over_28.5 24.0% under_28.5 76.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 74.1% under_10.5 25.9% over_12.5 57.9%
under_12.5 42.1% over_14.5 41.4% under_14.5 58.6%
team_away
over_10.5 46.9% under_10.5 53.1% over_12.5 29.2%
under_12.5 70.8% over_14.5 16.2% under_14.5 83.8%
most
home 66.9% draw 5.7% away 27.4%
handicap
home_-4.5 41.5% away_+4.5 58.5% home_-2.5 54.4%
away_+2.5 45.6% home_-0.5 66.9% away_+0.5 33.1%
home_+0.5 72.6% away_-0.5 27.4% home_+2.5 82.4%
away_-2.5 17.7% home_+4.5 89.5% away_-4.5 10.5%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 71.4% under_6.5 28.6% over_7.5 58.7%
under_7.5 41.3% over_8.5 45.7% under_8.5 54.3%
over_9.5 33.6% under_9.5 66.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 67.8% under_3.5 32.2% over_4.5 50.4%
under_4.5 49.6% over_5.5 34.3% under_5.5 65.7%
team_away
over_3.5 48.4% under_3.5 51.6% over_4.5 30.3%
under_4.5 69.7% over_5.5 17.1% under_5.5 83.0%
most
home 57.7% draw 12.5% away 29.8%
handicap
home_-2.5 31.9% away_+2.5 68.1% home_-0.5 57.7%
away_+0.5 42.4% home_+0.5 70.2% away_-0.5 29.8%
home_+2.5 88.4% away_-2.5 11.6%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 80.4% under_2.5 19.6% over_3.5 63.1%
under_3.5 36.9% over_4.5 44.5% under_4.5 55.5%
over_5.5 28.2% under_5.5 71.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 58.5% under_1.5 41.5% over_2.5 32.2%
under_2.5 67.8%
team_away
over_1.5 67.9% under_1.5 32.1% over_2.5 42.5%
under_2.5 57.5%
most
home 33.4% draw 19.0% away 47.6%
handicap
home_-1.5 18.1% away_+1.5 81.9% home_-0.5 33.4%
away_+0.5 66.6% home_+0.5 52.4% away_-0.5 47.6%
home_+1.5 70.6% away_-1.5 29.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 80.1% under_20.5 19.9% over_22.5 68.6%
under_22.5 31.4% over_24.5 55.4% under_24.5 44.6%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 78.4% under_9.5 21.6% over_11.5 60.7%
under_11.5 39.3% over_13.5 41.8% under_13.5 58.2%
team_away
over_9.5 76.9% under_9.5 23.2% over_11.5 58.7%
under_11.5 41.3% over_13.5 39.7% under_13.5 60.3%
most
home 48.1% draw 6.8% away 45.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.7% away_+3.5 71.3% home_-0.5 48.1%
away_+0.5 51.9% home_+2.5 68.0% away_-2.5 32.1%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 21.4% no 78.6%
home
yes 16.7% no 83.3%
away
yes 5.7% no 94.3%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Ath Bilbao predictions · Alaves predictions · La Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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