Fiorentina vs Napoli prediction & probabilities (2026-09-20)

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Fiorentina vs Napoli: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 15 Sep 2026

Serie A
Fiorentina

DLLLW

Sun, 20 Sep 202611:30UK26°C · Clear
Napoli

WWLLW

Model’s top convictions

74%

Draw or Napoli

72%

Over 1.5 goals

54%

Under 2.5 goals

Our priceNo bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
NapoliWin probability
47.4%
Top 3 convictions

Draw or Napoli74.3%Strong chancePays @ 1.35
Over 1.5 goals72.0%Strong chancePays @ 1.39
Under 2.5 goals54.2%Good chancePays @ 1.85

Model read

▾

"When model and market disagree on Napoli, that gap is the story." A measured edge to Napoli: 47% is the model's line for this Serie A meeting on 20 September 2026. Totals sit close to the fence: 46% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 50%. Moise Kean drives the home shot volume, 1.5 on target per 90. Recent form reads W2 D1 L3 for Fiorentina against W4 D0 L2 for Napoli. The recent series reads 0 wins for Fiorentina, 1 draws and 4 for Napoli over 5 games, 3.4 goals on average. Discipline says sit it out: no bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Napoli win47.4%@ 2.11
Over 2.5 goals45.8%@ 2.18
Over 9.5 corners40.6%@ 2.46
Medium risk

Fiorentina or draw52.6%@ 1.90
Over 8.5 corners50.5%@ 1.98
Both teams to score50.3%@ 1.99
Random finds

1-1 correct score13.0%@ 7.67
0-1 correct score11.3%@ 8.85
1-2 correct score9.1%@ 11.01

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Fiorentina

25.7%

Draw

27.0%

Napoli

47.4%

Model

no bookmaker price published for this match yet

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.572.0%

Strong chance

Over 2.545.8%

Reasonable chance

BTTS · Yes50.3%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.550.5%

Good chance

Over 9.540.6%

Toss-up

Over 10.531.8%

Toss-up

Over 11.524.2%

Low chance

Most cornersFiorentina51.8%Napoli37.6%

Shots markets

Over 22.561.9%

Strong chance

Over 24.549.9%

Reasonable chance

Over 26.538.3%

Toss-up

Over 28.527.8%

Low chance

Recent shot volume

Fiorentina14.7 taken15.5 faced
Napoli13.3 taken13.3 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

First half / second half shots

Fiorentina (4 games)

7.8 / 9.0

Napoli (4 games)

4.8 / 9.5

Shots taken before and after half-time, per game, over the games in brackets. The bar is the share taken in the first half. This is Understat shot data with the half-time split verified against the half-time score, counted separately from the match shot totals above, so the two can differ. A match where the split could not be verified is left out rather than guessed.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.572.0%2.545.8%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.572.0%

Discipline: Our price. No bookmaker price published for this match yet.

Form & head-to-head

FiorentinaDLLLW
NapoliWWLLW

Last 5 meetings: Fiorentina 0 · 1 draws · Napoli 4 · 3.4 goals/game.

2026-01-31Napoli 2-1 Fiorentina
2025-09-13Fiorentina 1-3 Napoli
2025-03-09Napoli 2-1 Fiorentina
2025-01-04Fiorentina 0-3 Napoli
2024-05-17Fiorentina 2-2 Napoli

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

FiorentinaNapoli
League position#15 of 20#10 of 20
Record W-D-L1-0-32-0-2
Current streakW1W1
Record, home vs away0-0-21-0-1
Red cards this season00

League averages this season: 3.02 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 57% · BTTS in 60%. Full league tables & stats →

Players to watch

Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup

Moise KeanFiorentina · key player
To score36.3%

@ 2.75

1+ on target73.0%

@ 1.37

2+ shots85.3%

@ 1.17

Shots/90 3.84SoT/90 1.48Goals/90 0.51
Alisson SantosNapoli · key player
To score20.7%

@ 4.83

1+ on target63.3%

@ 1.58

2+ shots64.0%

@ 1.56

Shots/90 3.28SoT/90 1.51Goals/90 0.35
BetoFiorentina · in form
To score22.5%

@ 4.44

1+ on target45.6%

@ 2.19

2+ shots43.0%

@ 2.33

Shots/90 2.81SoT/90 1.17Goals/90 0.49
Lorenzo LuccaNapoli · in form
To score21.4%

@ 4.67

1+ on target44.7%

@ 2.24

2+ shots46.1%

@ 2.17

Shots/90 2.84SoT/90 1.08Goals/90 0.44
Alieu NjieFiorentina · in form
To score5.7%

@ 17.54

1+ on target25.5%

@ 3.92

2+ shots10.9%

@ 9.17

Shots/90 2.11SoT/90 1.11Goals/90 0.22
Scott McTominayNapoli · in form
To score27.5%

@ 3.64

1+ on target62.7%

@ 1.59

2+ shots73.2%

@ 1.37

Shots/90 2.74SoT/90 1.04Goals/90 0.34

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Fiorentina win3.80
Draw3.64
Napoli win2.16
Both teams to score1.99

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.10
Over 1.5 goals1.39
Over 2.5 goals2.18
Over 3.5 goals4.10
Fiorentina most3.80
Napoli most2.16

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.59
Over 8.5 corners1.93
Over 9.5 corners2.45
Over 10.5 corners3.22
Fiorentina most1.93
Napoli most2.66

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.49
Over 3.5 cards2.16
Over 4.5 cards3.55
Over 5.5 cards6.55
Fiorentina most2.59
Napoli most2.52

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.55
Over 7.5 SoT1.90
Over 8.5 SoT2.44
Over 9.5 SoT3.26
Fiorentina most2.23
Napoli most2.34

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.61
Over 24.5 shots2.00
Over 26.5 shots2.61
Over 28.5 shots3.60
Fiorentina most1.70
Napoli most2.82

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.38
Over 22.5 fouls1.68
Over 24.5 fouls2.17
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 61.9% Over 24.5 49.9% Over 26.5 38.3% Over 28.5 27.8%
Most: Fiorentina 58.7% Most: Napoli 35.4%
Fiorentina Over 13.2 46.4% Napoli Over 13.2 30.0%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 64.5% Over 7.5 52.5% Over 8.5 41.0% Over 9.5 30.7%
Most: Fiorentina 44.9% Most: Napoli 42.7%
Fiorentina Over 4.2 37.9% Napoli Over 4.2 36.4%

Cards

Over 2.5 67.2% Over 3.5 46.3% Over 4.5 28.2%
Most: Fiorentina 38.5% Most: Napoli 39.7%
Fiorentina Over 1.8 51.1% Napoli Over 1.8 52.0%

Fiorentina: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Moise Kean 3.84 1.48 0.51 73.0% 85.3% 36.3%
Beto 2.81 1.17 0.49 45.6% 43.0% 22.5%
Alieu Njie 2.11 1.11 0.22 25.5% 10.9% 5.7%
Franco Mastantuono 3.27 0.95 0.27 40.3% 53.0% 13.7%
Albert Gudmundsson 1.82 0.76 0.29 40.3% 35.0% 17.9%

Napoli: players to watch (recent-form projection)

O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.

Player Shots/90 SoT/90 Goals/90 1+ SoT 2+ shots To score
Alisson Santos 3.28 1.51 0.35 63.3% 64.0% 20.7%
Lorenzo Lucca 2.84 1.08 0.44 44.7% 46.1% 21.4%
Scott McTominay 2.74 1.04 0.34 62.7% 73.2% 27.5%
Kevin De Bruyne 2.51 0.8 0.3 40.5% 48.5% 17.7%
Rasmus Højlund 1.74 0.72 0.33 44.8% 42.1% 23.9%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Fiorentina clean sheet 23.2%
Napoli clean sheet 35.1%
Fiorentina win to nil 14.4%
Napoli win to nil 26.3%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 26.3% draw 27.5% away 46.2%
double_chance
1X 53.8% 12 72.5% X2 73.7%
dnb
home 36.3% away 63.7%
btts
yes 50.3% no 49.7%
clean_sheet
home 23.2% away 35.3%
win_to_nil
home 14.4% away 26.5%
winning_margin
home_by_1 16.3% home_by_2 7.2% home_by_3plus 2.9%
away_by_1 23.0% away_by_2 14.1% away_by_3plus 9.1%
correct_score
0-0 8.8% 0-1 11.3% 0-2 8.7%
0-3 4.3% 0-4 1.6% 0-5 0.5%
1-0 7.9% 1-1 13.0% 1-2 9.1%
1-3 4.4% 1-4 1.6% 1-5 0.5%
2-0 4.5% 2-1 6.5% 2-2 4.7%
2-3 2.3% 2-4 0.9% 2-5 0.3%
3-0 1.6% 3-1 2.3% 3-2 1.6%
3-3 0.8% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 0.4% 4-1 0.6% 4-2 0.4%
4-3 0.2% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.1% 5-1 0.1% 5-2 0.1%
5-3 0.0% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.5%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 13.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 91.2% under_0.5 8.8% over_1.5 72.0%
under_1.5 28.0% over_2.5 45.8% under_2.5 54.2%
over_3.5 24.4% under_3.5 75.6% over_4.5 11.0%
under_4.5 89.0% over_5.5 4.3% under_5.5 95.7%
odd_even
odd 48.4% even 51.6%
team_home
over_0.5 64.7% under_0.5 35.3% over_1.5 28.0%
under_1.5 72.0% over_2.5 8.8% under_2.5 91.2%
team_away
over_0.5 76.8% under_0.5 23.2% over_1.5 43.0%
under_1.5 57.0% over_2.5 18.3% under_2.5 81.7%
most
home 26.3% draw 27.5% away 46.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 2.9% away_+2.5 97.1% home_-1.5 10.1%
away_+1.5 89.9% home_-0.5 26.3% away_+0.5 73.7%
home_+0.5 53.8% away_-0.5 46.2% home_+1.5 76.8%
away_-1.5 23.2% home_+2.5 90.9% away_-2.5 9.1%
total_exact
exact_0 8.8% exact_1 19.2% exact_2 26.2%
exact_3 21.4% exact_4 13.4% exact_5 6.7%
exact_6 2.8% exact_7plus 1.5%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 20.6% draw 42.2% away 37.3%
total
over_0.5 68.7% under_0.5 31.3% over_1.5 32.3%
under_1.5 67.7% over_2.5 11.2% under_2.5 88.8%
btts
yes 18.4% no 81.6%
total_exact
exact_0 31.3% exact_1 36.4% exact_2 21.1%
exact_3 8.2% exact_4plus 3.1%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 22.9% draw 37.3% away 39.9%
total
over_0.5 76.0% under_0.5 24.0% over_1.5 41.7%
under_1.5 58.3% over_2.5 17.3% under_2.5 82.7%
btts
yes 25.0% no 75.0%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 13.5% H/D 4.7% H/A 2.4%
D/H 9.7% D/D 15.7% D/A 16.8%
A/H 1.5% A/D 4.9% A/A 30.8%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 63.0% under_7.5 37.0% over_8.5 51.7%
under_8.5 48.3% over_9.5 40.8% under_9.5 59.2%
over_10.5 31.1% under_10.5 69.0% over_11.5 22.8%
under_11.5 77.2% over_12.5 16.2% under_12.5 83.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 64.5% under_3.5 35.5% over_4.5 49.6%
under_4.5 50.4% over_5.5 36.2% under_5.5 63.8%
team_away
over_3.5 54.4% under_3.5 45.6% over_4.5 38.9%
under_4.5 61.1% over_5.5 26.1% under_5.5 73.9%
most
home 51.9% draw 10.5% away 37.7%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.1% away_+3.5 76.9% home_-1.5 41.4%
away_+1.5 58.6% home_-0.5 51.9% away_+0.5 48.1%
home_+0.5 62.3% away_-0.5 37.7% home_+1.5 71.9%
away_-1.5 28.1% home_+3.5 86.5% away_-3.5 13.5%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 61.9% under_22.5 38.1% over_24.5 49.9%
under_24.5 50.1% over_26.5 38.3% under_26.5 61.7%
over_28.5 27.8% under_28.5 72.2%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 70.4% under_10.5 29.6% over_12.5 54.4%
under_12.5 45.6% over_14.5 38.8% under_14.5 61.3%
team_away
over_10.5 54.9% under_10.5 45.1% over_12.5 37.6%
under_12.5 62.4% over_14.5 23.5% under_14.5 76.5%
most
home 58.7% draw 5.9% away 35.4%
handicap
home_-4.5 34.8% away_+4.5 65.2% home_-2.5 46.6%
away_+2.5 53.4% home_-0.5 58.7% away_+0.5 41.3%
home_+0.5 64.6% away_-0.5 35.4% home_+2.5 75.2%
away_-2.5 24.8% home_+4.5 83.8% away_-4.5 16.2%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 64.5% under_6.5 35.5% over_7.5 52.6%
under_7.5 47.4% over_8.5 41.0% under_8.5 59.0%
over_9.5 30.7% under_9.5 69.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 54.1% under_3.5 45.9% over_4.5 38.0%
under_4.5 62.1% over_5.5 24.9% under_5.5 75.1%
team_away
over_3.5 52.6% under_3.5 47.4% over_4.5 36.4%
under_4.5 63.6% over_5.5 23.5% under_5.5 76.4%
most
home 44.9% draw 12.4% away 42.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 23.0% away_+2.5 77.0% home_-0.5 44.9%
away_+0.5 55.1% home_+0.5 57.3% away_-0.5 42.7%
home_+2.5 78.7% away_-2.5 21.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 67.2% under_2.5 32.8% over_3.5 46.3%
under_3.5 53.7% over_4.5 28.2% under_4.5 71.8%
over_5.5 15.3% under_5.5 84.7%
odd_even
odd 49.9% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 51.1% under_1.5 48.9% over_2.5 25.7%
under_2.5 74.3%
team_away
over_1.5 52.0% under_1.5 48.0% over_2.5 26.5%
under_2.5 73.5%
most
home 38.5% draw 21.7% away 39.7%
handicap
home_-1.5 20.4% away_+1.5 79.6% home_-0.5 38.5%
away_+0.5 61.5% home_+0.5 60.3% away_-0.5 39.7%
home_+1.5 78.7% away_-1.5 21.3%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 72.2% under_20.5 27.8% over_22.5 59.5%
under_22.5 40.5% over_24.5 46.2% under_24.5 53.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 66.0% under_9.5 34.0% over_11.5 46.4%
under_11.5 53.6% over_13.5 28.9% under_13.5 71.1%
team_away
over_9.5 76.3% under_9.5 23.7% over_11.5 58.9%
under_11.5 41.1% over_13.5 40.8% under_13.5 59.2%
most
home 38.0% draw 6.6% away 55.5%
handicap
home_-3.5 20.8% away_+3.5 79.2% home_-0.5 38.0%
away_+0.5 62.1% home_+2.5 58.0% away_-2.5 42.0%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 11.7% no 88.3%
home
yes 6.7% no 93.3%
away
yes 5.4% no 94.6%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0096 (55405 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Fiorentina predictions · Napoli predictions · Serie A

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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Serie AFiorentinaNapoliTrack record