ChampionshipWest Brom vs Birmingham Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 9.5 corners at 53.3%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Across the lines, the model goes from 77.3% for over 7.5 to 23.0% for over 12.5, with over 9.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 54.8%. Head to head on corners, West Brom are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 56.5%, with a level count at 10.4%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 77.3% | 22.7% |
| 8.5 corners | 66.6% | 33.4% |
| 9.5 corners | 54.8% | 45.2% |
| 10.5 corners | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| 11.5 corners | 32.2% | 67.8% |
| 12.5 corners | 23.0% | 77.0% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
77.5%
63.1%
48.0%
62.9%
45.7%
30.5%
Corner handicap
| West Brom line | West Brom | Birmingham |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 25.9% | 74.1% |
| -1.5 | 45.7% | 54.3% |
| -0.5 | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| +0.5 | 66.9% | 33.1% |
This season (2026/27)
4.9West Brom corners won per game6.1West Brom corners conceded per game6.0Birmingham corners won per game4.5Birmingham corners conceded per gameCorner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. The model edges West Brom.
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
54.8%Over 9.5 corners63.1%West Brom over 4.5 corners45.7%Birmingham over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalFor the team lines, West Brom over 4.5 corners sits at 63.1% and Birmingham at 45.7%. This season West Brom have averaged 4.9 corners won a game and Birmingham 6.0.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in West Brom vs Birmingham?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 54.8% for West Brom vs Birmingham.
Which team will win the corner count in West Brom vs Birmingham?
The model rates West Brom to win the corner count at 56.5%, with a level count at 10.4%.
How many corners do West Brom and Birmingham average this season?
West Brom have won 4.9 corners a game this season and Birmingham 6.0.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 23,827 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
