ChampionshipBolton vs Stoke Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 57.3%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 80.5% for over 7.5 to 26.8% for over 12.5, with over 10.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.6%. Between the two sides, Bolton are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 55.6%, with a level count at 10.2%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 80.5% | 19.5% |
| 8.5 corners | 70.6% | 29.4% |
| 9.5 corners | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| 10.5 corners | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| 11.5 corners | 36.5% | 63.5% |
| 12.5 corners | 26.8% | 73.2% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
79.1%
65.3%
50.3%
66.4%
49.6%
34.1%
Corner handicap
| Bolton line | Bolton | Stoke |
|---|---|---|
| -3.5 | 25.7% | 74.3% |
| -1.5 | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| -0.5 | 55.6% | 44.4% |
| +0.5 | 65.8% | 34.2% |
This season (2026/27)
5.9Bolton corners won per game5.0Bolton corners conceded per game4.0Stoke corners won per game5.1Stoke corners conceded per gameThe corners market rewards teams that camp in the final third, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Bolton.
In-depth analysis
59.3%Over 9.5 corners65.3%Bolton over 4.5 corners49.6%Stoke over 4.5 corners50.0%Odd corner totalSplit by side, Bolton over 4.5 corners sits at 65.3% and Stoke at 49.6%. This season Bolton have averaged 5.9 corners won a game and Stoke 4.0.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Bolton vs Stoke?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 59.3% for Bolton vs Stoke.
Which team will win the corner count in Bolton vs Stoke?
The model rates Bolton to win the corner count at 55.6%, with a level count at 10.2%.
How many corners do Bolton and Stoke average this season?
Bolton have won 5.9 corners a game this season and Stoke 4.0.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 23,762 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Corners actually happened 54.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 21 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
Our most recent Corners calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
