ChampionshipWest Brom vs Birmingham Over / Under 2.5 Goals
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Under 2.5 goals at 60.0%, its strongest read on the Over / Under 2.5 Goals market. Recent output points the same way: West Brom have averaged 0.8 scored and 0.6 conceded, Birmingham 1.6 and 1.6 over their recent games. That fits a tighter goals environment: 40.0% for over 2.5 and 67.2% for at least two goals. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 1.8 goals a game. West Brom have gone over 2.5 in 0 of their last 5, Birmingham in 4 of 5. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Total goals, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 89.2% | 10.8% |
| 1.5 goals | 67.2% | 32.8% |
| 2.5 goals | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| 3.5 goals | 19.8% | 80.2% |
| 4.5 goals | 8.2% | 91.8% |
| 5.5 goals | 2.9% | 97.1% |
Team goal lines
71.5%
35.7%
13.3%
64.3%
27.5%
8.6%
First-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 70.6% | 29.4% |
| 1.5 goals | 34.6% | 65.4% |
| 2.5 goals | 12.6% | 87.4% |
Second-half goals
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 0.5 goals | 64.5% | 35.5% |
| 1.5 goals | 27.7% | 72.3% |
| 2.5 goals | 8.7% | 91.3% |
This season (2026/27)
1.2West Brom goals scored per game1.0West Brom goals conceded per game33.3%West Brom Over 2.5 rate0.5West Brom 1st-half goals per game1.5Birmingham goals scored per game1.4Birmingham goals conceded per game75.0%Birmingham Over 2.5 rate0.6Birmingham 1st-half goals per gameGoals distribution
How likely each total number of goals is, according to the model. Every goals market on this page is built from these bars. The 5+ bar covers every result with five goals or more.
0
1
2
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5+
In-depth analysis
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.
46.6%Both Teams to Score40.0%Over 2.5 goalsOn the goals side, the model sees 40.0% for three or more goals and 67.2% for at least two, painting a lower-scoring picture. With West Brom favoured at 40.8%, a competitive game tends to open up.
Model lenses
The same numbers read in different ways by one model. These are not separate tipsters, and none of them is a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans West Brom to win. See the full prediction →
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: West Brom 1 · 2 draws · Birmingham 2 · 1.8 goals/game.
Recent trends
How often both teams scored and the match went over 2.5 in each side’s recent games.
FAQ
Will there be over 2.5 goals in West Brom vs Birmingham?
Our model rates Over 2.5 goals at 40.0% for West Brom vs Birmingham.
Will there be a first-half goal in West Brom vs Birmingham?
The model rates at least one goal before half-time at 70.6%.
How often have West Brom gone over 2.5 recently?
West Brom have gone over 2.5 in 0 of their last 5, Birmingham in 4 of 5.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Over / Under 2.5 Goals accuracy
How our Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls have actually done, each one scored against the real result on matches the model had never seen.
In 20,782 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Over / Under 2.5 Goals actually happened 47.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 22 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls
Our most recent Over / Under 2.5 Goals calls, each one scored against the result. The model had never seen these matches when it made them. Green means we got it right, red means we got it wrong, and the number is how sure we were.
More Championship, Over / Under 2.5 Goals
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.
