Pro League
Waregem vs 
Charleroi Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 24.5 shots at 56.6%, its strongest read on the Shots market. The total-shots ladder runs from 68.1% for over 22.5 to 33.7% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 44.8%. Head to head on shots, Waregem are the model’s pick to have more shots at 57.8%, with a level count at 5.8%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 68.1% | 31.9% |
| 24.5 shots | 56.6% | 43.4% |
| 26.5 shots | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| 28.5 shots | 33.7% | 66.3% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
73.8%
58.4%
42.7%
60.3%
43.0%
28.0%
Shot handicap
| Waregem line | Waregem | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 34.3% | 65.7% |
| -2.5 | 45.9% | 54.1% |
| -0.5 | 57.8% | 42.2% |
| +0.5 | 63.6% | 36.4% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 72.7% | 27.3% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 60.9% | 39.1% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 48.6% | 51.4% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 36.9% | 63.1% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
13.0Waregem shots per game10.8Waregem shots faced per game19.4Charleroi shots per game11.0Charleroi shots faced per gameTotal shots follow which side is chasing the game, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Waregem.
In-depth analysis
56.6%Over 24.5 shots58.4%Waregem over 12.5 shots43.0%Charleroi over 12.5 shots60.9%Over 7.5 on targetSplit by side, Waregem over 12.5 shots sits at 58.4% and Charleroi at 43.0%. This season Waregem have averaged 13.0 shots a game and Charleroi 19.4.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Waregem vs Charleroi?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 56.6% for Waregem vs Charleroi.
Which team will have more shots in Waregem vs Charleroi?
The model rates Waregem to take more shots at 57.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,849 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Pro League, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.