Pro League
Waregem vs 
Charleroi Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 45.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 66.8% for over 2.5 to 14.1% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 45.4%. On the card count, Charleroi are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 55.7%, with a level count at 20.6%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 66.8% | 33.2% |
| 3.5 cards | 45.4% | 54.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 26.9% | 73.1% |
| 5.5 cards | 14.1% | 85.9% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
38.2%
15.1%
62.4%
35.9%
Card handicap
| Waregem line | Waregem | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 10.1% | 89.9% |
| -0.5 | 23.7% | 76.3% |
| +0.5 | 44.3% | 55.7% |
| +1.5 | 66.0% | 34.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 63.4% | 36.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| 24.5 fouls | 35.1% | 64.9% |
This season (2026/27)
1.2Waregem cards per game11.8Waregem fouls per game0.6Charleroi cards per game8.8Charleroi fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Waregem vs Charleroi. The model leans toward Charleroi for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
45.4%Over 3.5 cards19.5%Any red card38.2%Waregem over 1.5 cards62.4%Charleroi over 1.5 cards49.0%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Waregem over 1.5 cards sits at 38.2% and Charleroi at 62.4%. A red card for either side is rated at 19.5% (Waregem 5.1%, Charleroi 15.1%). This season Waregem have averaged 1.2 cards a game and Charleroi 0.6.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Waregem vs Charleroi?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 45.4% for Waregem vs Charleroi.
Will there be a red card in Waregem vs Charleroi?
The model rates a red card for either side at 19.5%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Waregem vs Charleroi?
The model rates Charleroi to pick up more cards at 55.7%, with a level count at 20.6%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Pro League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.