Club Brugge vs Antwerp prediction & probabilities (2026-09-13)

By /

Club Brugge vs Antwerp: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 13 Sep 2026

Pro League
Club Brugge

WWWLW

Sun, 13 Sep 202612:30UK
Antwerp

WWDLL

Model’s top convictions

86%

Club Brugge or draw

84%

Over 1.5 goals

66%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.09).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Club BruggeWin probability
67.1%
Top 3 convictions

Club Brugge or draw86.3%High probabilityPays @ 1.16
Over 1.5 goals83.6%High probabilityPays @ 1.20
Over 8.5 corners65.9%Strong chancePays @ 1.52

Model read

▾

On paper this is one way traffic: the calibrated model makes Club Brugge heavy favourites at 67% when Club Brugge meet Antwerp in the Pro League on 13 September 2026. Three things stand out in the data: 1) The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Club Brugge at 76%. Caution noted. 2) The goals profile is lively: Over 2.5 sits at 62% with both teams to score at 55%. 3) The recent series reads 2 wins for Club Brugge, 1 draws and 2 for Antwerp over 5 games, 2.4 goals on average. Form guide over the last six: Club Brugge W5 D0 L1, Antwerp W3 D1 L2. Verdict: no bet. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.09).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Over 10.5 corners45.1%@ 2.22
Over 11.5 corners35.5%@ 2.82
Draw or Antwerp32.9%@ 3.04
Medium risk

Over 9.5 corners55.5%@ 1.80
Both teams to score55.1%@ 1.81
Random finds

2-0 correct score10.4%@ 9.63
2-1 correct score9.7%@ 10.27
1-1 correct score9.0%@ 11.15

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Club Brugge

67.1%-8.8%

Draw

19.2%+3.8%

Antwerp

13.7%+5.1%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.09)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.583.6%

High probability

Over 2.562.5%

Strong chance

BTTS · Yes55.1%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.565.9%

Strong chance

Over 9.555.5%

Good chance

Over 10.545.1%

Reasonable chance

Over 11.535.5%

Toss-up

Most cornersClub Brugge58.8%Antwerp31.0%

Shots markets

Over 22.573.3%

Strong chance

Over 24.562.5%

Strong chance

Over 26.550.8%

Good chance

Over 28.539.2%

Toss-up

Recent shot volume

Club Brugge18.3 taken11.5 faced
Antwerp16.5 taken14.0 faced

Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.

Totals line guide

0.5·1.583.6%2.562.5%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 2.562.5%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.09).

Form & head-to-head

Club BruggeWWWLW
AntwerpWWDLL

Last 5 meetings: Club Brugge 2 · 1 draws · Antwerp 2 · 2.4 goals/game.

2025-11-30Club Brugge 0-1 Antwerp
2025-10-26Antwerp 0-1 Club Brugge
2025-05-25Club Brugge 1-1 Antwerp
2025-04-06Antwerp 2-3 Club Brugge
2025-02-02Antwerp 2-1 Club Brugge

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Club BruggeAntwerp
League position#3 of 18#10 of 18
Record W-D-L4-0-12-1-2
Current streakW1L2
Points per game2.401.40
Record, home vs away2-0-01-0-1
Goals scored per game1.802.00
Goals conceded per game0.402.00
1st half goals per game1.000.40
2nd half goals per game0.801.60
Corners won per game9.06.0
Cards per game1.41.0
Fouls per game8.414.8
Red cards this season10
Shots per game16.816.4
Shots faced per game11.015.2
Shots on target per game5.46.4
Over 2.5 rate

60.0%80.0%

BTTS rate

20.0%60.0%

Clean sheets

80.0%20.0%

Rates this season:Club BruggeAntwerp

League averages this season: 3.07 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 67% · BTTS in 42%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Club Brugge win1.251.49
Draw5.505.21
Antwerp win9.007.30
Over 2.5 goals1.441.60
Under 2.5 goals2.702.67

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Club Brugge win1.49
Draw5.20
Antwerp win7.32
Both teams to score1.81

Goals

Over 1.5 goals1.20
Over 2.5 goals1.60
Over 3.5 goals2.48
Over 4.5 goals4.47
Club Brugge most1.49
Antwerp most7.32

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.26
Over 8.5 corners1.45
Over 9.5 corners1.74
Over 10.5 corners2.18
Club Brugge most1.70
Antwerp most3.22

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.44
Over 3.5 cards2.06
Over 4.5 cards3.37
Over 5.5 cards6.23
Club Brugge most3.78
Antwerp most1.89

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.22
Over 7.5 SoT1.39
Over 8.5 SoT1.64
Over 9.5 SoT2.01
Club Brugge most1.50
Antwerp most4.31

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.36
Over 24.5 shots1.60
Over 26.5 shots1.97
Over 28.5 shots2.55
Club Brugge most1.46
Antwerp most3.80

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.66
Over 22.5 fouls2.19
Over 24.5 fouls3.13
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots

Over 22.5 73.3% Over 24.5 62.5% Over 26.5 50.8% Over 28.5 39.2%
Most: Club Brugge 68.6% Most: Antwerp 26.3%
Club Brugge Over 13.2 62.2% Antwerp Over 13.2 31.1%

Shots on target

Over 6.5 81.7% Over 7.5 72.1% Over 8.5 61.1% Over 9.5 49.7%
Most: Club Brugge 66.8% Most: Antwerp 23.2%
Club Brugge Over 4.2 66.3% Antwerp Over 4.2 34.2%

Cards

Over 2.5 69.5% Over 3.5 48.5% Over 4.5 29.7%
Most: Club Brugge 26.5% Most: Antwerp 52.9%
Club Brugge Over 1.8 43.0% Antwerp Over 1.8 62.6%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Club Brugge clean sheet 37.9%
Antwerp clean sheet 10.2%
Club Brugge win to nil 33.5%
Antwerp win to nil 5.8%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 67.1% draw 19.2% away 13.7%
double_chance
1X 86.3% 12 80.8% X2 32.9%
dnb
home 83.1% away 16.9%
btts
yes 55.1% no 44.9%
clean_sheet
home 39.1% away 10.2%
win_to_nil
home 34.7% away 5.8%
winning_margin
home_by_1 22.6% home_by_2 20.1% home_by_3plus 24.4%
away_by_1 9.1% away_by_2 3.4% away_by_3plus 1.2%
correct_score
0-0 4.4% 0-1 3.3% 0-2 1.8%
0-3 0.6% 0-4 0.1% 0-5 0.0%
1-0 8.7% 1-1 9.0% 1-2 4.0%
1-3 1.3% 1-4 0.3% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 10.4% 2-1 9.7% 2-2 4.6%
2-3 1.4% 2-4 0.3% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 7.9% 3-1 7.4% 3-2 3.5%
3-3 1.1% 3-4 0.3% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 4.5% 4-1 4.2% 4-2 2.0%
4-3 0.6% 4-4 0.2% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 2.1% 5-1 1.9% 5-2 0.9%
5-3 0.3% 5-4 0.1% 5-5 0.0%
other 2.9%
likeliest_score
h 200.0% a 0.0% p 10.4%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 95.6% under_0.5 4.4% over_1.5 83.6%
under_1.5 16.4% over_2.5 62.5% under_2.5 37.5%
over_3.5 40.3% under_3.5 59.7% over_4.5 22.4%
under_4.5 77.6% over_5.5 10.8% under_5.5 89.2%
odd_even
odd 49.1% even 50.9%
team_home
over_0.5 89.8% under_0.5 10.2% over_1.5 66.5%
under_1.5 33.5% over_2.5 39.9% under_2.5 60.1%
team_away
over_0.5 60.9% under_0.5 39.1% over_1.5 24.3%
under_1.5 75.7% over_2.5 7.0% under_2.5 93.0%
most
home 67.1% draw 19.2% away 13.7%
handicap
home_-2.5 24.4% away_+2.5 75.6% home_-1.5 44.5%
away_+1.5 55.5% home_-0.5 67.1% away_+0.5 32.9%
home_+0.5 86.3% away_-0.5 13.7% home_+1.5 95.4%
away_-1.5 4.6% home_+2.5 98.8% away_-2.5 1.2%
total_exact
exact_0 4.4% exact_1 12.0% exact_2 21.1%
exact_3 22.2% exact_4 17.9% exact_5 11.5%
exact_6 6.2% exact_7plus 4.6%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 53.9% draw 35.1% away 11.0%
total
over_0.5 74.0% under_0.5 26.0% over_1.5 39.0%
under_1.5 61.0% over_2.5 15.4% under_2.5 84.6%
btts
yes 17.3% no 82.7%
total_exact
exact_0 26.0% exact_1 35.0% exact_2 23.6%
exact_3 10.6% exact_4plus 4.8%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 53.2% draw 29.8% away 17.0%
total
over_0.5 84.1% under_0.5 15.9% over_1.5 54.8%
under_1.5 45.2% over_2.5 27.9% under_2.5 72.1%
btts
yes 31.4% no 68.6%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 47.9% H/D 4.6% H/A 1.4%
D/H 18.7% D/D 10.4% D/A 6.0%
A/H 2.5% A/D 2.9% A/A 5.6%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 79.4% under_7.5 20.6% over_8.5 69.1%
under_8.5 30.9% over_9.5 57.6% under_9.5 42.4%
over_10.5 45.8% under_10.5 54.2% over_11.5 34.7%
under_11.5 65.3% over_12.5 25.2% under_12.5 74.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 79.9% under_3.5 20.1% over_4.5 66.3%
under_4.5 33.7% over_5.5 51.6% under_5.5 48.4%
team_away
over_3.5 62.6% under_3.5 37.4% over_4.5 45.5%
under_4.5 54.6% over_5.5 30.3% under_5.5 69.7%
most
home 59.0% draw 10.0% away 31.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 28.5% away_+3.5 71.5% home_-1.5 48.4%
away_+1.5 51.6% home_-0.5 59.0% away_+0.5 41.1%
home_+0.5 68.9% away_-0.5 31.1% home_+1.5 77.6%
away_-1.5 22.4% home_+3.5 90.2% away_-3.5 9.8%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 73.3% under_22.5 26.7% over_24.5 62.5%
under_24.5 37.5% over_26.5 50.8% under_26.5 49.2%
over_28.5 39.2% under_28.5 60.8%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 82.3% under_10.5 17.7% over_12.5 69.5%
under_12.5 30.5% over_14.5 54.7% under_14.5 45.3%
team_away
over_10.5 56.2% under_10.5 43.8% over_12.5 38.8%
under_12.5 61.2% over_14.5 24.3% under_14.5 75.6%
most
home 68.6% draw 5.1% away 26.3%
handicap
home_-4.5 45.7% away_+4.5 54.3% home_-2.5 57.5%
away_+2.5 42.5% home_-0.5 68.6% away_+0.5 31.4%
home_+0.5 73.7% away_-0.5 26.3% home_+2.5 82.4%
away_-2.5 17.6% home_+4.5 89.0% away_-4.5 11.0%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 81.7% under_6.5 18.3% over_7.5 72.1%
under_7.5 27.9% over_8.5 61.1% under_8.5 38.9%
over_9.5 49.7% under_9.5 50.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 79.8% under_3.5 20.2% over_4.5 66.3%
under_4.5 33.7% over_5.5 51.7% under_5.5 48.3%
team_away
over_3.5 51.7% under_3.5 48.3% over_4.5 34.2%
under_4.5 65.8% over_5.5 20.6% under_5.5 79.4%
most
home 66.8% draw 10.0% away 23.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 44.0% away_+2.5 56.0% home_-0.5 66.8%
away_+0.5 33.2% home_+0.5 76.8% away_-0.5 23.2%
home_+2.5 90.8% away_-2.5 9.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 69.5% under_2.5 30.5% over_3.5 48.5%
under_3.5 51.5% over_4.5 29.7% under_4.5 70.3%
over_5.5 16.1% under_5.5 84.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.1%
team_home
over_1.5 43.0% under_1.5 57.0% over_2.5 18.5%
under_2.5 81.5%
team_away
over_1.5 62.6% under_1.5 37.4% over_2.5 36.1%
under_2.5 63.9%
most
home 26.5% draw 20.6% away 52.9%
handicap
home_-1.5 12.0% away_+1.5 88.0% home_-0.5 26.5%
away_+0.5 73.5% home_+0.5 47.1% away_-0.5 52.9%
home_+1.5 68.0% away_-1.5 32.0%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 60.3% under_20.5 39.7% over_22.5 45.6%
under_22.5 54.4% over_24.5 32.0% under_24.5 68.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 50.2% under_9.5 49.8% over_11.5 29.5%
under_11.5 70.5% over_13.5 14.9% under_13.5 85.1%
team_away
over_9.5 74.7% under_9.5 25.3% over_11.5 55.9%
under_11.5 44.1% over_13.5 37.0% under_13.5 63.0%
most
home 28.4% draw 6.7% away 64.9%
handicap
home_-3.5 12.9% away_+3.5 87.1% home_-0.5 28.4%
away_+0.5 71.6% home_+2.5 49.6% away_-2.5 50.4%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 23.3% no 76.7%
home
yes 9.6% no 90.4%
away
yes 15.1% no 84.9%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Club Brugge predictions · Antwerp predictions · Pro League

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

Explore this match

Markets

More on this match

Pro LeagueClub BruggeAntwerpTrack record