Pro League
Waregem vs 
Charleroi Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Home or Away at 73.1%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, Waregem are favoured at 41.9%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Waregem by 1 | 21.3% |
| Waregem by 2 | 12.7% |
| Waregem by 3+ | 7.9% |
| Charleroi by 1 | 17.8% |
| Charleroi by 2 | 9.0% |
| Charleroi by 3+ | 4.4% |
| Draw | 26.9% |
Goal handicap
| Waregem line | Waregem | Charleroi |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.6% | 79.4% |
| -0.5 | 41.9% | 58.1% |
| +0.5 | 68.8% | 31.2% |
| +1.5 | 86.6% | 13.4% |
This season (2026/27)
2.0Waregem goals scored per game0.6Waregem goals conceded per game2.2Charleroi goals scored per game1.0Charleroi goals conceded per gameDouble chance is the cautious read on the result market. The highest-probability cover is Waregem or Charleroi on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
55.0%Both Teams to Score50.4%Over 2.5 goalsFor context, Waregem are favoured at 41.9%. We lean on calibration, not the favourite tag.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Waregem 2 · 0 draws · Charleroi 3 · 3.2 goals/game.
FAQ
What is the most likely double chance in Waregem vs Charleroi?
Home or Away is the highest-probability double chance for Waregem vs Charleroi at 73.1%.
What is the draw no bet probability in Waregem vs Charleroi?
With the draw taken out, the model rates Waregem at 57.3% and Charleroi at 42.7%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 39,986 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Pro League, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.