Pro League
Genk vs 
Gent Shots
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 24.5 shots at 59.6%, its strongest read on the Shots market. Across the lines, the model goes from 70.9% for over 22.5 to 36.4% for over 28.5, with over 26.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 47.8%. On the shot count, Genk are the model’s pick to have more shots at 67.4%, with a level count at 5.2%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Shots
Total shots, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 22.5 shots | 70.9% | 29.2% |
| 24.5 shots | 59.6% | 40.4% |
| 26.5 shots | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| 28.5 shots | 36.4% | 63.6% |
Who takes more shots
Team shot lines
80.3%
66.8%
51.7%
55.1%
37.7%
23.5%
Shot handicap
| Genk line | Genk | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| -4.5 | 44.1% | 55.9% |
| -2.5 | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| -0.5 | 67.4% | 32.6% |
| +0.5 | 72.6% | 27.4% |
Shots on target
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 6.5 shots on target | 77.6% | 22.4% |
| 7.5 shots on target | 66.8% | 33.2% |
| 8.5 shots on target | 55.1% | 44.9% |
| 9.5 shots on target | 43.5% | 56.5% |
Recent shot volume
Shots taken and faced per game over each side’s last 6 matches, from real match data.
This season (2026/27)
12.6Genk shots per game12.6Genk shots faced per game12.0Gent shots per game8.2Gent shots faced per gameShot counts move with pressure, not with the result, below are the model total-shot probabilities. It edges Genk.
In-depth analysis
59.6%Over 24.5 shots66.8%Genk over 12.5 shots37.7%Gent over 12.5 shots66.8%Over 7.5 on targetFor the team lines, Genk over 12.5 shots sits at 66.8% and Gent at 37.7%. This season Genk have averaged 12.6 shots a game and Gent 12.0.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many shots in Genk vs Gent?
The model rates over 24.5 total shots at 59.6% for Genk vs Gent.
Which team will have more shots in Genk vs Gent?
The model rates Genk to take more shots at 67.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Shots accuracy
How our Shots calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 12,849 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Shots actually happened 56.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 11 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Shots calls
The model’s most recent graded Shots predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Pro League, Shots
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.