Pro League
Genk vs 
Gent Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 43.4%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Line by line, the read runs from 65.1% for over 2.5 to 12.9% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 43.4%. On the card count, Gent are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 49.8%, with a level count at 21.9%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 65.1% | 34.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| 4.5 cards | 25.2% | 74.8% |
| 5.5 cards | 12.9% | 87.1% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
41.4%
17.3%
57.6%
31.0%
Card handicap
| Genk line | Genk | Gent |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 12.8% | 87.2% |
| -0.5 | 28.3% | 71.7% |
| +0.5 | 50.2% | 49.8% |
| +1.5 | 71.4% | 28.6% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 56.1% | 43.9% |
| 22.5 fouls | 41.3% | 58.7% |
| 24.5 fouls | 28.1% | 71.9% |
This season (2026/27)
2.0Genk cards per game12.4Genk fouls per game1.2Gent cards per game10.4Gent fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Genk vs Gent. It tips Gent for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
43.4%Over 3.5 cards13.0%Any red card41.4%Genk over 1.5 cards57.6%Gent over 1.5 cards41.3%Over 22.5 foulsBy team, Genk over 1.5 cards sits at 41.4% and Gent at 57.6%. A red card for either side is rated at 13.0% (Genk 3.6%, Gent 9.7%). This season Genk have averaged 2.0 cards a game and Gent 1.2.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Genk vs Gent?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 43.4% for Genk vs Gent.
Will there be a red card in Genk vs Gent?
The model rates a red card for either side at 13.0%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Genk vs Gent?
The model rates Gent to pick up more cards at 49.8%, with a level count at 21.9%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,145 matches we rated like this one (40–50%), Cards actually happened 48.6% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Pro League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.