Pro League
Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs 
Cercle Brugge Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The model makes Over 3.5 cards at 50.6%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 71.2% for over 2.5 to 17.4% for over 5.5, with over 3.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 50.6%. Head to head on cards, Cercle Brugge are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 41.7%, with a level count at 21.3%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 71.2% | 28.8% |
| 3.5 cards | 50.6% | 49.4% |
| 4.5 cards | 31.6% | 68.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 17.4% | 82.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
53.2%
26.9%
56.7%
30.1%
Card handicap
| Oud-Heverlee Leuven line | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Cercle Brugge |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19.3% | 80.7% |
| -0.5 | 36.9% | 63.1% |
| +0.5 | 58.3% | 41.7% |
| +1.5 | 77.0% | 23.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 65.4% | 34.6% |
| 22.5 fouls | 51.2% | 48.9% |
| 24.5 fouls | 37.2% | 62.8% |
This season (2026/27)
1.8Oud-Heverlee Leuven cards per game10.2Oud-Heverlee Leuven fouls per game1.0Cercle Brugge cards per game11.8Cercle Brugge fouls per gameCard markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Cercle Brugge. It tips Cercle Brugge for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
50.6%Over 3.5 cards14.3%Any red card53.2%Oud-Heverlee Leuven over 1.5 cards56.7%Cercle Brugge over 1.5 cards51.2%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Oud-Heverlee Leuven over 1.5 cards sits at 53.2% and Cercle Brugge at 56.7%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.3% (Oud-Heverlee Leuven 8.5%, Cercle Brugge 6.4%). This season Oud-Heverlee Leuven have averaged 1.8 cards a game and Cercle Brugge 1.0.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Cercle Brugge?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 50.6% for Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Cercle Brugge.
Will there be a red card in Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Cercle Brugge?
The model rates a red card for either side at 14.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Oud-Heverlee Leuven vs Cercle Brugge?
The model rates Cercle Brugge to pick up more cards at 41.7%, with a level count at 21.3%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 11,059 matches we rated like this one (50–60%), Cards actually happened 55.8% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Pro League, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.