Volos NFC vs Iraklis prediction & probabilities (2026-08-29)

Super League Greece

Volos NFC vs Iraklis Corners

2026-08-29 · 17:30
Corners37.4%Over 9.5 corners

Result

Volos NFC 1-1 Iraklis

Settled, final score 1-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.

Best predictionOver 9.5 corners · 37.4%A moderate lean, nothing emphatic. Calibrated, not a tip.
37%

model probability

ConvictionModerate

Expert AI analysis

Our model lands on Over 9.5 corners at 37.4%, its strongest read on the Corners market. Line by line, the read runs from 62.2% for over 7.5 to 11.4% for over 12.5, with over 8.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 49.3%. Head to head on corners, Volos NFC are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 55.1%, with a level count at 10.9%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.

Corners

Over 8.549.3%

Over 9.537.0%

Over 10.526.3%

Over 11.517.8%

Total corners, every line

Line Over Under
7.5 corners 62.2% 37.9%
8.5 corners 49.3% 50.7%
9.5 corners 37.0% 63.0%
10.5 corners 26.3% 73.7%
11.5 corners 17.8% 82.2%
12.5 corners 11.4% 88.6%

Who wins the corner count

★ ModelVolos NFC55.1%

Level10.9%

Iraklis34.0%

Team corner lines

Volos NFC over 3.5

66.8%

Volos NFC over 4.5

50.7%

Volos NFC over 5.5

35.8%

Iraklis over 3.5

51.3%

Iraklis over 4.5

34.4%

Iraklis over 5.5

21.2%

Corner handicap

Volos NFC line Volos NFC Iraklis
-1.5 43.8% 56.2%
-0.5 55.1% 45.0%
+0.5 66.0% 34.0%
+1.5 75.7% 24.3%

Corner counts follow pressure and wide play, below are the model total-corner probabilities. More corners are projected for Volos NFC.

In-depth analysis

37.0%Over 9.5 corners
55.1%Most corners: Volos NFC
50.7%Volos NFC over 4.5 corners
34.4%Iraklis over 4.5 corners
50.0%Odd corner total

For the team lines, Volos NFC over 4.5 corners sits at 50.7% and Iraklis at 34.4%.

We publish the model, not a sure thing. The track record is public, misses included.

Model lenses

Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.

The CalibratorRaw model read: 37.4% on Corners, graded against real out-of-sample results, no odds attached.
The Territory ReaderVolos NFC are the pick to win the corner count at 55.1%, territory tends to follow the side forcing the play.
The Line SetterThe fairest total line is 8.5 corners: over sits at 49.3%, the closest to a coin-flip on the ladder.
The RealistOver 8.5 is a coin-flip in the model, the honest read is low conviction, no strong lean.

FAQ

How many corners in Volos NFC vs Iraklis?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 9.5 total corners at 37.0% for Volos NFC vs Iraklis.

Which team will win the corner count in Volos NFC vs Iraklis?
Before kickoff, the model rated Volos NFC to win the corner count at 55.1%, with a level count at 10.9%.

How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.

Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.

Corners accuracy

How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.

54.0%Best Corners call, hit rate
0.0099Calibration error
50,161Matches graded

In 3,406 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Corners actually happened 40.0% of the time.

Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →

Our last 10 Corners calls

The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.

✗ 54.9%✗ 58.1%✓ 53.1%✗ 53.0%✓ 51.3%✓ 52.8%✓ 54.8%✓ 55.3%✗ 54.3%✓ 58.9%
6 of 10 recent calls hit.
Estrela vs Sp Braga2026-09-10Under 9.5 54.9%Miss
Panathinaikos vs Kifisia2026-09-10Under 9.5 58.1%Miss
Twente vs Telstar2026-09-09Over 9.5 53.1%Hit
Moreirense vs Benfica2026-09-09Under 9.5 53.0%Miss
Derby vs West Brom2026-09-09Over 9.5 51.3%Hit

More Super League Greece, Corners

All Corners predictions →

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Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.