Super League Greece
Asteras Tripolis vs 
AEK Corners
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 9.5 corners at 39.4%, its strongest read on the Corners market. The total-corners ladder runs from 64.2% for over 7.5 to 12.8% for over 12.5, with over 8.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.6%. Head to head on corners, Asteras Tripolis are the model’s pick to win the corner count at 50.5%, with a level count at 11.0%. Calibrated against real results, we show the read, not a sure thing.
Corners
Total corners, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 7.5 corners | 64.2% | 35.8% |
| 8.5 corners | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| 9.5 corners | 39.4% | 60.6% |
| 10.5 corners | 28.5% | 71.5% |
| 11.5 corners | 19.6% | 80.4% |
| 12.5 corners | 12.8% | 87.2% |
Who wins the corner count
Team corner lines
65.0%
48.8%
34.1%
56.4%
39.6%
25.7%
Corner handicap
| Asteras Tripolis line | Asteras Tripolis | AEK |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 39.5% | 60.5% |
| -0.5 | 50.5% | 49.5% |
| +0.5 | 61.5% | 38.6% |
| +1.5 | 71.5% | 28.5% |
Corners track territory and shot volume more than the scoreline, below are the model total-corner probabilities. It leans to Asteras Tripolis.
In-depth analysis
Split by side, Asteras Tripolis over 4.5 corners sits at 48.8% and AEK at 39.6%.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many corners in Asteras Tripolis vs AEK?
The model rates over 9.5 total corners at 39.4% for Asteras Tripolis vs AEK.
Which team will win the corner count in Asteras Tripolis vs AEK?
The model rates Asteras Tripolis to win the corner count at 50.5%, with a level count at 11.0%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Corners accuracy
How our Corners calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 3,406 matches we rated like this one (30–40%), Corners actually happened 40.0% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Corners calls
The model’s most recent graded Corners predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Super League Greece, Corners
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.