Super League Greece
Volos NFC vs 
Iraklis Double Chance
Part of a bigger picture: see the full match page, where this comes from.
Result
The highest-probability cover, Volos NFC or Iraklis (72.5%), did not land.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Home or Away at 72.5%, its strongest read on the Double Chance market. For context, Volos NFC are favoured at 44.0%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Double Chance
Draw no bet
Draw no bet: the draw is taken out and the remaining probability is split between the two sides.
Winning margin
| Margin | Probability |
|---|---|
| Volos NFC by 1 | 22.3% |
| Volos NFC by 2 | 13.4% |
| Volos NFC by 3+ | 8.3% |
| Iraklis by 1 | 17.1% |
| Iraklis by 2 | 8.0% |
| Iraklis by 3+ | 3.5% |
| Draw | 27.4% |
Goal handicap
| Volos NFC line | Volos NFC | Iraklis |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 21.7% | 78.3% |
| -0.5 | 44.0% | 56.0% |
| +0.5 | 71.5% | 28.5% |
| +1.5 | 88.6% | 11.5% |
Two of three outcomes covered, lower odds, higher strike rate. The highest-probability cover is Volos NFC or Iraklis on the model numbers.
In-depth analysis
51.9%Both Teams to Score
47.1%Over 2.5 goalsFor context, Volos NFC are favoured at 44.0%. We lean on calibration, not the favourite tag.
Every figure is the model’s own calibrated read, not advice. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Form & head-to-head
FAQ
Which double chance landed in Volos NFC vs Iraklis?
Home or Away was the highest-probability cover at 72.5%; it did not land, final score 1-1.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Double Chance accuracy
How our Double Chance calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 39,986 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Double Chance actually happened 73.4% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Double Chance calls
The model’s most recent graded Double Chance predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Super League Greece, Double Chance
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.