Super League Greece
Volos NFC vs 
Iraklis Cards
Result
Settled, final score 1-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 72.7%, its strongest read on the Cards market. The total-cards ladder runs from 87.1% for over 2.5 to 37.5% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 55.0%. On the card count, Iraklis are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 42.8%, with a level count at 18.4%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 87.1% | 12.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 72.7% | 27.3% |
| 4.5 cards | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| 5.5 cards | 37.5% | 62.6% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
69.5%
43.4%
71.9%
46.4%
Card handicap
| Volos NFC line | Volos NFC | Iraklis |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 22.7% | 77.3% |
| -0.5 | 38.7% | 61.3% |
| +0.5 | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| +1.5 | 74.0% | 26.0% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 92.6% | 7.4% |
| 22.5 fouls | 86.4% | 13.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 77.7% | 22.3% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Volos NFC vs Iraklis. The model leans toward Iraklis for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
72.7%Over 3.5 cards16.3%Any red card69.5%Volos NFC over 1.5 cards71.9%Iraklis over 1.5 cards86.4%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Volos NFC over 1.5 cards sits at 69.5% and Iraklis at 71.9%. A red card for either side is rated at 16.3% (Volos NFC 7.9%, Iraklis 9.2%).
We publish the model, not a sure thing. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Volos NFC vs Iraklis?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 72.7% for Volos NFC vs Iraklis.
Will there be a red card in Volos NFC vs Iraklis?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 16.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Volos NFC vs Iraklis?
Before kickoff, the model rated Iraklis to pick up more cards at 42.8%, with a level count at 18.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 8,372 matches we rated like this one (70–80%), Cards actually happened 73.2% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 12 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Super League Greece, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.