La Liga
Valencia vs 
Betis Cards
Result
Settled, final score 0-1. We don’t store the live count for this market, so there is no graded verdict here.
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 62.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 80.2% for over 2.5 to 27.2% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 43.6%. On the card count, Betis are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.1%, with a level count at 19.4%. These are the model’s own calibrated numbers, not betting advice.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 80.2% | 19.8% |
| 3.5 cards | 62.5% | 37.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 43.6% | 56.4% |
| 5.5 cards | 27.2% | 72.8% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
59.8%
33.3%
66.3%
40.3%
Card handicap
| Valencia line | Valencia | Betis |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 19.4% | 80.6% |
| -0.5 | 35.4% | 64.6% |
| +0.5 | 54.9% | 45.1% |
| +1.5 | 72.9% | 27.1% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 73.8% | 26.2% |
| 22.5 fouls | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| 24.5 fouls | 46.3% | 53.7% |
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Valencia vs Betis. The model leans toward Betis for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
62.5%Over 3.5 cards14.2%Any red card59.8%Valencia over 1.5 cards66.3%Betis over 1.5 cards60.5%Over 22.5 foulsSplit by side, Valencia over 1.5 cards sits at 59.8% and Betis at 66.3%. A red card for either side is rated at 14.2% (Valencia 7.1%, Betis 7.7%).
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Valencia vs Betis?
Before kickoff, the model rated over 3.5 total cards at 62.5% for Valencia vs Betis.
Will there be a red card in Valencia vs Betis?
Before kickoff, the model rated a red card for either side at 14.2%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Valencia vs Betis?
Before kickoff, the model rated Betis to pick up more cards at 45.1%, with a level count at 19.4%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 14 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.