La Liga
Valencia vs 
Betis Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
The headline read is Over 3.5 cards at 61.0%, its strongest read on the Cards market. On the result, Valencia are favoured at 40.9%, a competitive game that shapes how this market plays out. Their last 5 meetings have averaged 3.2 goals a game. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Card markets are softer and less efficiently priced than goals, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Valencia vs Betis. The model leans toward Betis for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
For context, Valencia are favoured at 40.9%. Game state shapes this market, a side chasing the game tends to commit more.
These are calibrated model probabilities, not tips. Calibration is our edge, not beating the market.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
Match outlook
The model leans Valencia to win. See the full prediction →
Key players
Recent-form projection, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup.
Form & head-to-head
Last 5 meetings: Valencia 1 · 2 draws · Betis 2 · 3.2 goals/game.
FAQ
How many cards in Valencia vs Betis?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 61.0% for Valencia vs Betis.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Overall model accuracy
We don’t yet publish a graded Cards-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.
Predictions & track record updated 28 Jul 2026. See the full, dated track record →
More La Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.