Granada vs Mallorca: model prediction
Segunda DivisiónGranada or draw
Over 1.5 goals
Over 8.5 corners
Full time2 of 2 calls right
Our most likely call was Granada at 54.4%, and it was correct. We called Under 2.5 at 53.1% and it landed (2 goals). We called No at 51.4% and it landed.
Judged against the prediction this page published before kickoff. Right or wrong, it stays on the record.
Prediction summary
Top 3 convictions
Model read
▾
Granada go into this Segunda División meeting with Mallorca on 24 August 2026 as clear favourites; our model has them at 54%. Three things stand out in the data: 1) Notably, the model is warmer on Granada than the market (31%). We flag disagreement rather than hide it. 2) No strong lean on goals (47% Over 2.5). The interest, if any, lives elsewhere. 3) Recent form reads W1 D1 L4 for Granada against W4 D2 L0 for Mallorca. Mallorca are newly promoted, a profile the model deliberately prices with caution. The recent series reads 1 wins for Granada, 1 draws and 0 for Mallorca over 2 games, 1.5 goals on average. Discipline says sit it out: trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable).
Value & higher-risk angles
Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.
Model vs market
54.4%+23.3%
25.7%-5.4%
19.9%-17.8%
trust gate: NO_TRUST (segment historically unreliable)
Goals markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Reasonable chance
Corners markets
Good chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Shots markets
Strong chance
Reasonable chance
Toss-up
Low chance
Totals line guide
Before kick-off our call was Fairly priced. The match has been played, so this is a historical snapshot: the graded result is below.
Form & head-to-head
Last 2 meetings: Granada 1 · 1 draws · Mallorca 0 · 1.5 goals/game.
Season stats
Season 2026/27, real results only
Granada
MallorcaPlayers to watch
Top 3 per side by recent form, this season’s squad only, a watch list, not a confirmed lineup
@ 19.61
@ 6.10
@ 11.49
@ ·
@ 1.99
@ 4.37
@ 2.77
@ 1.60
@ 1.39
Bookmaker odds
Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.
Model fair odds
Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.
Match result
Goals
Corners
Cards
Shots on target
Shots
Fouls
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets
Shots on target
| Over 6.5 | 72.1% | Over 7.5 | 59.2% | Over 8.5 | 45.9% | Over 9.5 | 33.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Granada | 55.1% | Most: Mallorca | 31.9% | ||||
| Granada Over 4.2 | 49.0% | Mallorca Over 4.2 | 32.2% |
Cards
| Over 2.5 | 87.6% | Over 3.5 | 73.5% | Over 4.5 | 56.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Most: Granada | 39.2% | Most: Mallorca | 42.5% | ||
| Granada Over 1.8 | 70.3% | Mallorca Over 1.8 | 72.3% |
Mallorca: players to watch (recent-form projection)
O/U = Poisson on per-90 rates scaled to the player’s expected minutes · this season’s squad, a recent-form projection, not a confirmed lineup.
| Player | Shots/90 | SoT/90 | Goals/90 | 1+ SoT | 2+ shots | To score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abdón Prats | 3.48 | 1.28 | 0.37 | 16.4% | 8.7% | 5.1% |
| Zito | 1.59 | 1.23 | 0 | 50.3% | 22.9% | 0.0% |
| Vedat Muriqi | 2.89 | 1.12 | 0.51 | 62.6% | 72.1% | 36.1% |
| Jan Virgili | 1.59 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 40.4% | 27.5% | 6.3% |
| Cyle Larin | 1.99 | 0.76 | 0.36 | 38.2% | 35.9% | 20.4% |
Clean sheet & win to nil
| Granada clean sheet | 40.3% |
|---|---|
| Mallorca clean sheet | 19.2% |
| Granada win to nil | 32.0% |
| Mallorca win to nil | 10.8% |
Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.
Full market spectrum · model probabilities
Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.
Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
| home | 54.4% | draw | 25.7% | away | 19.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
double_chance
| 1X | 80.1% | 12 | 74.4% | X2 | 45.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
dnb
| home | 73.2% | away | 26.8% |
|---|
btts
| yes | 48.6% | no | 51.4% |
|---|
clean_sheet
| home | 40.6% | away | 19.2% |
|---|
win_to_nil
| home | 32.2% | away | 10.8% |
|---|
winning_margin
| home_by_1 | 24.6% | home_by_2 | 17.0% | home_by_3plus | 12.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_by_1 | 13.1% | away_by_2 | 5.1% | away_by_3plus | 1.7% |
correct_score
| 0-0 | 8.4% | 0-1 | 6.5% | 0-2 | 3.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0-3 | 1.0% | 0-4 | 0.2% | 0-5 | 0.0% |
| 1-0 | 12.3% | 1-1 | 12.2% | 1-2 | 5.2% |
| 1-3 | 1.6% | 1-4 | 0.4% | 1-5 | 0.1% |
| 2-0 | 10.6% | 2-1 | 9.6% | 2-2 | 4.3% |
| 2-3 | 1.3% | 2-4 | 0.3% | 2-5 | 0.1% |
| 3-0 | 5.8% | 3-1 | 5.3% | 3-2 | 2.4% |
| 3-3 | 0.7% | 3-4 | 0.2% | 3-5 | 0.0% |
| 4-0 | 2.4% | 4-1 | 2.2% | 4-2 | 1.0% |
| 4-3 | 0.3% | 4-4 | 0.1% | 4-5 | 0.0% |
| 5-0 | 0.8% | 5-1 | 0.7% | 5-2 | 0.3% |
| 5-3 | 0.1% | 5-4 | 0.0% | 5-5 | 0.0% |
| other | 0.7% |
likeliest_score
| h | 100.0% | a | 0.0% | p | 12.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
| over_0.5 | 91.6% | under_0.5 | 8.4% | over_1.5 | 72.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 27.1% | over_2.5 | 46.9% | under_2.5 | 53.1% |
| over_3.5 | 25.3% | under_3.5 | 74.7% | over_4.5 | 11.6% |
| under_4.5 | 88.4% | over_5.5 | 4.6% | under_5.5 | 95.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 48.5% | even | 51.5% |
|---|
team_home
| over_0.5 | 80.8% | under_0.5 | 19.2% | over_1.5 | 49.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 50.9% | over_2.5 | 23.0% | under_2.5 | 77.0% |
team_away
| over_0.5 | 59.4% | under_0.5 | 40.6% | over_1.5 | 22.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 77.2% | over_2.5 | 6.3% | under_2.5 | 93.7% |
most
| home | 54.4% | draw | 25.7% | away | 19.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 12.9% | away_+2.5 | 87.1% | home_-1.5 | 29.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 70.1% | home_-0.5 | 54.4% | away_+0.5 | 45.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 80.1% | away_-0.5 | 19.9% | home_+1.5 | 93.2% |
| away_-1.5 | 6.8% | home_+2.5 | 98.3% | away_-2.5 | 1.7% |
total_exact
| exact_0 | 8.4% | exact_1 | 18.7% | exact_2 | 26.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 21.6% | exact_4 | 13.8% | exact_5 | 7.0% |
| exact_6 | 3.0% | exact_7plus | 1.6% |
First half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 34.7% | draw | 43.6% | away | 21.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 67.0% | under_0.5 | 33.0% | over_1.5 | 30.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 69.6% | over_2.5 | 10.1% | under_2.5 | 89.9% |
btts
| yes | 17.5% | no | 82.5% |
|---|
total_exact
| exact_0 | 33.0% | exact_1 | 36.6% | exact_2 | 20.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| exact_3 | 7.5% | exact_4plus | 2.6% |
Second half range, not a point
1×2
| home | 23.0% | draw | 39.9% | away | 37.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
total
| over_0.5 | 72.4% | under_0.5 | 27.6% | over_1.5 | 36.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_1.5 | 63.2% | over_2.5 | 14.0% | under_2.5 | 86.0% |
btts
| yes | 21.8% | no | 78.2% |
|---|
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
| H/H | 24.4% | H/D | 7.1% | H/A | 3.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D/H | 10.0% | D/D | 17.4% | D/A | 16.2% |
| A/H | 1.0% | A/D | 3.3% | A/A | 17.5% |
Corners range, not a point
total
| over_7.5 | 70.2% | under_7.5 | 29.8% | over_8.5 | 58.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_8.5 | 42.0% | over_9.5 | 45.6% | under_9.5 | 54.4% |
| over_10.5 | 34.0% | under_10.5 | 66.0% | over_11.5 | 24.1% |
| under_11.5 | 75.9% | over_12.5 | 16.2% | under_12.5 | 83.8% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 71.9% | under_3.5 | 28.1% | over_4.5 | 56.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 43.9% | over_5.5 | 40.5% | under_5.5 | 59.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 58.5% | under_3.5 | 41.5% | over_4.5 | 40.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 59.1% | over_5.5 | 26.2% | under_5.5 | 73.8% |
most
| home | 54.4% | draw | 11.0% | away | 34.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 23.1% | away_+3.5 | 76.9% | home_-1.5 | 43.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+1.5 | 56.9% | home_-0.5 | 54.4% | away_+0.5 | 45.6% |
| home_+0.5 | 65.4% | away_-0.5 | 34.6% | home_+1.5 | 75.3% |
| away_-1.5 | 24.7% | home_+3.5 | 89.4% | away_-3.5 | 10.6% |
Shots range, not a point
total
| over_22.5 | 61.7% | under_22.5 | 38.3% | over_24.5 | 48.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_24.5 | 51.2% | over_26.5 | 36.3% | under_26.5 | 63.7% |
| over_28.5 | 25.4% | under_28.5 | 74.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_10.5 | 74.2% | under_10.5 | 25.8% | over_12.5 | 57.7% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 42.3% | over_14.5 | 40.8% | under_14.5 | 59.2% |
team_away
| over_10.5 | 50.8% | under_10.5 | 49.2% | over_12.5 | 32.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_12.5 | 67.6% | over_14.5 | 18.4% | under_14.5 | 81.6% |
most
| home | 64.5% | draw | 5.9% | away | 29.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-4.5 | 38.7% | away_+4.5 | 61.3% | home_-2.5 | 51.6% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+2.5 | 48.4% | home_-0.5 | 64.5% | away_+0.5 | 35.5% |
| home_+0.5 | 70.4% | away_-0.5 | 29.6% | home_+2.5 | 80.7% |
| away_-2.5 | 19.3% | home_+4.5 | 88.4% | away_-4.5 | 11.6% |
Shots on target range, not a point
total
| over_6.5 | 72.1% | under_6.5 | 27.9% | over_7.5 | 59.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_7.5 | 40.8% | over_8.5 | 45.9% | under_8.5 | 54.1% |
| over_9.5 | 33.5% | under_9.5 | 66.5% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_3.5 | 67.0% | under_3.5 | 33.0% | over_4.5 | 49.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 51.0% | over_5.5 | 32.5% | under_5.5 | 67.5% |
team_away
| over_3.5 | 50.9% | under_3.5 | 49.1% | over_4.5 | 32.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_4.5 | 67.8% | over_5.5 | 18.2% | under_5.5 | 81.8% |
most
| home | 55.1% | draw | 13.0% | away | 31.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-2.5 | 29.2% | away_+2.5 | 70.8% | home_-0.5 | 55.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 44.9% | home_+0.5 | 68.1% | away_-0.5 | 31.9% |
| home_+2.5 | 87.5% | away_-2.5 | 12.5% |
Cards calibrated
total
| over_2.5 | 87.6% | under_2.5 | 12.4% | over_3.5 | 73.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_3.5 | 26.5% | over_4.5 | 56.0% | under_4.5 | 44.0% |
| over_5.5 | 38.5% | under_5.5 | 61.6% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_1.5 | 70.3% | under_1.5 | 29.7% | over_2.5 | 44.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 55.6% |
team_away
| over_1.5 | 72.3% | under_1.5 | 27.7% | over_2.5 | 46.9% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_2.5 | 53.1% |
most
| home | 39.2% | draw | 18.3% | away | 42.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-1.5 | 23.1% | away_+1.5 | 76.9% | home_-0.5 | 39.2% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 60.8% | home_+0.5 | 57.5% | away_-0.5 | 42.5% |
| home_+1.5 | 74.2% | away_-1.5 | 25.8% |
Fouls calibrated
total
| over_20.5 | 85.5% | under_20.5 | 14.5% | over_22.5 | 75.8% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_22.5 | 24.2% | over_24.5 | 63.8% | under_24.5 | 36.2% |
odd_even
| odd | 50.0% | even | 50.0% |
|---|
team_home
| over_9.5 | 79.7% | under_9.5 | 20.3% | over_11.5 | 62.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 37.5% | over_13.5 | 43.6% | under_13.5 | 56.4% |
team_away
| over_9.5 | 83.9% | under_9.5 | 16.2% | over_11.5 | 68.4% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| under_11.5 | 31.6% | over_13.5 | 50.2% | under_13.5 | 49.8% |
most
| home | 42.1% | draw | 6.6% | away | 51.3% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
handicap
| home_-3.5 | 24.1% | away_+3.5 | 75.9% | home_-0.5 | 42.1% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| away_+0.5 | 57.9% | home_+2.5 | 61.9% | away_-2.5 | 38.1% |
Red card range, not a point
any
| yes | 19.9% | no | 80.2% |
|---|
home
| yes | 11.4% | no | 88.6% |
|---|
away
| yes | 9.5% | no | 90.5% |
|---|
How this works (honestly)
We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.
Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.
Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.
We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.
Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).
More: Granada predictions · Mallorca predictions · Segunda División
Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.
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