AI-Powered Match Intelligence· How our model works· updated 27 Oct 2026

Premier League
TottenhamTottenhamDLDWW
Sat, 31 Oct 202631/1017:30UK13°C · Cloudy
Crystal PalaceCrystal PalaceLDWLL

Tottenham vs Crystal Palace xG stats

Recent xG created per game, from recorded matches.

Tottenham1.32

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Crystal Palace1.56

xG created per game · Last 6 matches

Expected Goals (xG)

Tottenham have created 1.32 xG and scored 1.33 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely. Crystal Palace have created 1.56 xG and scored 1.33 per game over their last 6, tracking their xG closely.

Real Understat xG, recent games only (the five leagues we cover for xG). xG measures chance quality, not a tip.

TottenhamTottenham

Recent xG per game

Recorded recent matches.

Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace
Statistic
Tottenham
Crystal Palace
Matches in sample
6
6
xG created per game
1.32
1.56

xG conceded per game
1.10
2.22

Bar scales · xG per game: 0–3. Each team uses the same scale for each metric.

Form & head-to-head

Recent form uses each club’s available results in their stored order. Select a W/D/L result for details.

Head-to-head figures use their own recorded sample. Where individual results are available, the figures and journal cover the same meetings. Missing results are never counted as draws.

TottenhamTottenhamLast 5
D
Draw · 0-0
L
Loss · 2-3
D
Draw · 1-1
W
Win · 3-1
W
Win · 2-0

2 wins · 2 draws · 1 loss

Crystal PalacePalaceLast 5
L
Loss · 2-3
D
Draw · 0-0
W
Win · 3-1
L
Loss · 0-5
L
Loss · 0-2

1 win · 1 draw · 3 losses

W Win
D Draw
L Loss

Head-to-head

Last 5 meetings

2TottenhamTottenham wins
0Draws
3Crystal PalacePalace wins
2.4Average goals
Date
Home team
Score
Away team
TottenhamTottenham
1 – 3
Crystal PalacePalace
Crystal PalacePalace
0 – 1
TottenhamTottenham
TottenhamTottenham
0 – 2
Crystal PalacePalace
Crystal PalacePalace
1 – 0
TottenhamTottenham
TottenhamTottenham
3 – 1
Crystal PalacePalace

Match outlook

PickTottenham46.9%
Draw25.4%
Crystal Palace27.7%

The model leans Tottenham to win.

See the full prediction

Overall model accuracy

We don't yet publish a graded Expected Goals (xG)-specific track record, so this is our overall accuracy across every 1X2 call, graded out-of-sample, updated daily.

0.0106Calibration error (1X2)
47.7%Top-pick hit rate (1X2)
56,038Matches graded

Predictions & track record updated 27 Oct 2026.

See the full, dated track record

Model analysis: reasoning, key facts and model lenses

In-depth analysis

We publish the model, not a sure thing. We score every call against the result after the match.

46.9%Favoured: Tottenham
55.4%Both Teams to Score
51.8%Over 2.5 goals

Players to watch

Published player-market probabilities, shown in kickoff order. Model estimates, not confirmed lineups.

How our football predictions work →

TottenhamTottenham (1)
Omar Marmoush
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
27.2%
3.68
1+ shot on target
59.0%
1.69
2+ shots
72.0%
1.39
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots3.75
On target1.32
Goals0.47
Crystal PalaceCrystal Palace (1)
Eddie Nketiah
Watch list
Prediction markets
Model %
Fair odds
Save
To score
10.8%
9.26
1+ shot on target
35.8%
2.79
2+ shots
30.7%
3.26
Per 90 minutes (recent averages)
Shots3.50
On target1.39
Goals0.36

FAQ

How is this probability calculated?
The estimate comes from models fitted to recorded match data. Calibration and validation depend on the market, league and available sample; the percentage alone does not establish accuracy or a profitable price.
Is this a betting tip?
This is a model estimate, not a guarantee or a demonstrated profitable edge. Where the required result data is available, saved predictions are graded including misses. An unavailable market result stays ungraded.

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Related

Premier LeagueTottenham fixtures and statsCrystal Palace fixtures and statsTrack record

Model estimates; validation depends on the market and available sample. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.