Primeira Liga
Sp Braga vs 
Gil Vicente Cards
model probability
Expert AI analysis
Our model lands on Over 3.5 cards at 69.5%, its strongest read on the Cards market. Across the lines, the model goes from 85.1% for over 2.5 to 33.7% for over 5.5, with over 4.5 the closest line to a coin-flip at 51.1%. On the card count, Gil Vicente are the model’s pick to pick up more cards at 45.0%, with a level count at 18.8%. It is a calibrated model probability, graded out-of-sample, not a tip.
Cards (bookings)
Total cards, every line
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 2.5 cards | 85.1% | 14.9% |
| 3.5 cards | 69.5% | 30.5% |
| 4.5 cards | 51.1% | 48.9% |
| 5.5 cards | 33.7% | 66.3% |
Who picks up more cards
Team card lines
65.6%
38.9%
71.0%
45.3%
Card handicap
| Sp Braga line | Sp Braga | Gil Vicente |
|---|---|---|
| -1.5 | 20.4% | 79.6% |
| -0.5 | 36.2% | 63.8% |
| +0.5 | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| +1.5 | 72.6% | 27.4% |
Red card
Fouls
| Line | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| 20.5 fouls | 81.3% | 18.7% |
| 22.5 fouls | 70.4% | 29.6% |
| 24.5 fouls | 57.7% | 42.3% |
This season (2026/27)
2.0Sp Braga cards per game20.0Sp Braga fouls per game1.0Gil Vicente cards per game14.0Gil Vicente fouls per gameBookings are a lower-liquidity market, so calibration matters most here, these are the model total-booking probabilities for Sp Braga vs Gil Vicente. It tips Gil Vicente for the most cards.
In-depth analysis
69.5%Over 3.5 cards18.3%Any red card65.6%Sp Braga over 1.5 cards71.0%Gil Vicente over 1.5 cards70.4%Over 22.5 foulsFor the team lines, Sp Braga over 1.5 cards sits at 65.6% and Gil Vicente at 71.0%. A red card for either side is rated at 18.3% (Sp Braga 12.4%, Gil Vicente 6.7%). This season Sp Braga have averaged 2.0 cards a game and Gil Vicente 1.0.
We publish the model, not a sure thing. We grade every call after the match.
Model lenses
Different analytical lenses our model applies to the same calibrated data, not separate tipsters, and never a tip.
FAQ
How many cards in Sp Braga vs Gil Vicente?
The model rates over 3.5 total cards at 69.5% for Sp Braga vs Gil Vicente.
Will there be a red card in Sp Braga vs Gil Vicente?
The model rates a red card for either side at 18.3%.
Which team will pick up more cards in Sp Braga vs Gil Vicente?
The model rates Gil Vicente to pick up more cards at 45.0%, with a level count at 18.8%.
How is this probability calculated?
We fit a goals and markets model (Dixon-Coles plus an xG strength model and an ensemble) on real match data, then calibrate the output against out-of-sample results. It is a calibrated model probability, not an odds-derived tip.
Is this a betting tip?
No – these are calibrated model probabilities, graded against real results. We publish our full track record, including the misses, and never claim to beat the closing market.
Cards accuracy
How our Cards calls have actually performed, graded out-of-sample against real results.
In 10,079 matches we rated like this one (60–70%), Cards actually happened 65.7% of the time.
Predictions & track record updated 13 Sep 2026. See the full, dated track record →
Our last 10 Cards calls
The model’s most recent graded Cards predictions, out-of-sample. Green means the call hit, red means it missed. The number is the model confidence on each.
More Primeira Liga, Cards
Related
Model probabilities, calibration-graded, not a tip. We publish our track record, including the misses. 18+. For information only, not betting advice. If gambling is a problem, visit BeGambleAware.