Sp Braga vs Gil Vicente prediction & probabilities (2026-08-16)

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Sp Braga vs Gil Vicente: model prediction

Road2Sushi Model· how it was built· updated 16 Aug 2026

Primeira Liga
Sp Braga

LDDDD

Sun, 16 Aug 202620:30UK
Gil Vicente

WDLLW

Model’s top convictions

78%

Sp Braga or draw

76%

Over 1.5 goals

56%

Over 8.5 corners

Fairly pricedToo extreme an outsider (fair 0.15).

Prediction summary

Top 3 convictions

Model’s best bet
Sp BragaWin probability
52.9%
Top 3 convictions

Sp Braga or draw78.1%High probabilityPays @ 1.28
Over 1.5 goals75.8%Strong chancePays @ 1.32
Over 8.5 corners56.0%Good chancePays @ 1.79

Model read

▾

"When model and market disagree on Sp Braga, that gap is the story." Few Primeira Liga fixtures are this lopsided in the data: Sp Braga carry a 53% win probability against Gil Vicente on 16 August 2026. The market is more convinced than we are, pricing Sp Braga at 61%. Caution noted. Totals sit close to the fence: 51% for Over 2.5 with both teams to score at 52%. Head to head, the last 5 meetings gave 2 wins for Sp Braga, 1 draws and 2 for Gil Vicente, averaging 1.8 goals a game. Form guide over the last six: Sp Braga W1 D4 L1, Gil Vicente W2 D1 L3. The engine passes on this one (too extreme an outsider (fair 0.15)).

Value & higher-risk angles

High risk

Draw or Gil Vicente47.1%@ 2.12
Over 9.5 corners45.8%@ 2.18
Over 10.5 corners36.4%@ 2.75
Medium risk

Both teams to score52.4%@ 1.91
Over 2.5 goals50.8%@ 1.97
Random finds

1-1 correct score12.0%@ 8.34
1-0 correct score10.7%@ 9.31
2-1 correct score9.7%@ 10.33

Lower-probability calls our model rates above the obvious price; random finds are high-return scorelines that can happen. Higher risk, not a tip; we never beat the sharp market.

Model vs market

Sp Braga

52.9%-7.9%

Draw

25.2%+1.1%

Gil Vicente

21.9%+6.8%

ModelMarket

too extreme an outsider (fair 0.15)

Goals markets

★ StrongestOver 1.575.8%

Strong chance

Over 2.550.8%

Good chance

BTTS · Yes52.4%

Good chance

Corners markets

Over 8.556.0%

Good chance

Over 9.545.8%

Reasonable chance

Over 10.536.4%

Toss-up

Over 11.528.1%

Low chance

Most cornersSp Braga51.5%Gil Vicente38.0%

Shots markets

Over 22.550.7%

Good chance

Over 24.538.7%

Toss-up

Over 26.527.9%

Low chance

Over 28.519.0%

Low chance

Totals line guide

0.5·1.575.8%2.550.8%3.5·4.5·
Recommended focusOver 1.575.8%

Discipline: Fairly priced. Too extreme an outsider (fair 0.15).

Form & head-to-head

Sp BragaLDDDD
Gil VicenteWDLLW

Last 5 meetings: Sp Braga 2 · 1 draws · Gil Vicente 2 · 1.8 goals/game.

2026-02-14Gil Vicente 2-1 Sp Braga
2025-09-14Sp Braga 0-1 Gil Vicente
2025-02-09Sp Braga 2-0 Gil Vicente
2024-09-01Gil Vicente 0-0 Sp Braga
2024-03-16Sp Braga 2-1 Gil Vicente

Season stats

Season 2026/27, real results only

Sp BragaGil Vicente
League position#11 of 18#3 of 18
Record W-D-L0-1-01-0-0
Current streakD1W1
Points per game1.003.00
Goals scored per game2.001.00
Goals conceded per game2.000.00
1st half goals per game1.000.00
2nd half goals per game1.001.00
Corners won per game2.05.0
Cards per game2.01.0
Fouls per game20.014.0
Red cards this season00
Shots per game13.013.0
Shots on target per game4.05.0
Over 2.5 rate

100.0%0.0%

BTTS rate

100.0%0.0%

Clean sheets

0.0%100.0%

Rates this season:Sp BragaGil Vicente

League averages this season: 2.56 goals per match · Over 2.5 in 44% · BTTS in 56%. Full league tables & stats →

Bookmaker odds

Real bookmaker price (Bet365) next to our model fair price. Bookmaker prices include the bookmaker margin, so our margin-free fair price usually looks longer. We do not claim to beat the closing market.

BookmakerOur fair
Sp Braga win1.561.89
Draw3.753.97
Gil Vicente win5.754.57
Over 2.5 goals1.951.97
Under 2.5 goals1.852.03

Model fair odds

Our calibrated probability as a decimal price (1 divided by probability). A fair model price, not a bookmaker quote.

Match result

Sp Braga win1.89
Draw3.97
Gil Vicente win4.56
Both teams to score1.91

Goals

Over 0.5 goals1.08
Over 1.5 goals1.32
Over 2.5 goals1.97
Over 3.5 goals3.48
Sp Braga most1.89
Gil Vicente most4.56

Corners

Over 7.5 corners1.43
Over 8.5 corners1.71
Over 9.5 corners2.14
Over 10.5 corners2.79
Sp Braga most1.94
Gil Vicente most2.63

Cards

Over 2.5 cards1.18
Over 3.5 cards1.44
Over 4.5 cards1.96
Over 5.5 cards2.97
Sp Braga most2.76
Gil Vicente most2.22

Shots on target

Over 6.5 SoT1.53
Over 7.5 SoT1.91
Over 8.5 SoT2.54
Over 9.5 SoT3.55
Sp Braga most1.86
Gil Vicente most3.01

Shots

Over 22.5 shots1.97
Over 24.5 shots2.59
Over 26.5 shots3.59
Over 28.5 shots5.25
Sp Braga most1.77
Gil Vicente most2.69

Fouls

Over 20.5 fouls1.23
Over 22.5 fouls1.42
Over 24.5 fouls1.73
All model outcomes · full market spectrum & player markets

Shots on target

Over 6.5 65.5% Over 7.5 52.3% Over 8.5 39.4% Over 9.5 28.2%
Most: Sp Braga 53.7% Most: Gil Vicente 33.2%
Sp Braga Over 4.2 43.3% Gil Vicente Over 4.2 28.9%

Cards

Over 2.5 85.1% Over 3.5 69.5% Over 4.5 51.1%
Most: Sp Braga 36.2% Most: Gil Vicente 45.0%
Sp Braga Over 1.8 65.6% Gil Vicente Over 1.8 71.0%

Clean sheet & win to nil

Sp Braga clean sheet 36.2%
Gil Vicente clean sheet 18.4%
Sp Braga win to nil 28.9%
Gil Vicente win to nil 11.1%

Derived from the model score matrix above: a clean sheet is every scoreline where the opponent is on zero. Calibration-graded, not a tip.

Full market spectrum · model probabilities

Calibration-graded model %, no odds attached. Niche markets are transparency/coverage, not a claimed edge. Colour = measured out-of-sample calibration.

Match result & goals calibrated
1×2
home 52.9% draw 25.2% away 21.9%
double_chance
1X 78.1% 12 74.8% X2 47.1%
dnb
home 70.7% away 29.3%
btts
yes 52.4% no 47.6%
clean_sheet
home 36.5% away 18.4%
win_to_nil
home 29.2% away 11.1%
winning_margin
home_by_1 23.6% home_by_2 16.4% home_by_3plus 12.9%
away_by_1 13.9% away_by_2 5.8% away_by_3plus 2.2%
correct_score
0-0 7.2% 0-1 6.2% 0-2 3.4%
0-3 1.2% 0-4 0.3% 0-5 0.1%
1-0 10.7% 1-1 12.0% 1-2 5.8%
1-3 1.9% 1-4 0.5% 1-5 0.1%
2-0 9.6% 2-1 9.7% 2-2 4.9%
2-3 1.6% 2-4 0.4% 2-5 0.1%
3-0 5.5% 3-1 5.5% 3-2 2.8%
3-3 0.9% 3-4 0.2% 3-5 0.1%
4-0 2.3% 4-1 2.3% 4-2 1.2%
4-3 0.4% 4-4 0.1% 4-5 0.0%
5-0 0.8% 5-1 0.8% 5-2 0.4%
5-3 0.1% 5-4 0.0% 5-5 0.0%
other 0.9%
likeliest_score
h 100.0% a 100.0% p 12.0%
Goals: totals / handicap / exact calibrated
total
over_0.5 92.8% under_0.5 7.2% over_1.5 75.8%
under_1.5 24.2% over_2.5 50.8% under_2.5 49.2%
over_3.5 28.8% under_3.5 71.2% over_4.5 13.8%
under_4.5 86.2% over_5.5 5.8% under_5.5 94.3%
odd_even
odd 48.6% even 51.4%
team_home
over_0.5 81.6% under_0.5 18.4% over_1.5 50.6%
under_1.5 49.4% over_2.5 24.3% under_2.5 75.7%
team_away
over_0.5 63.5% under_0.5 36.5% over_1.5 26.8%
under_1.5 73.2% over_2.5 8.2% under_2.5 91.8%
most
home 52.9% draw 25.2% away 21.9%
handicap
home_-2.5 12.9% away_+2.5 87.1% home_-1.5 29.3%
away_+1.5 70.7% home_-0.5 52.9% away_+0.5 47.1%
home_+0.5 78.1% away_-0.5 21.9% home_+1.5 91.9%
away_-1.5 8.1% home_+2.5 97.8% away_-2.5 2.2%
total_exact
exact_0 7.2% exact_1 16.9% exact_2 25.0%
exact_3 22.1% exact_4 14.9% exact_5 8.1%
exact_6 3.7% exact_7plus 2.1%
First half range, not a point
1×2
home 44.1% draw 38.7% away 17.3%
total
over_0.5 72.4% under_0.5 27.6% over_1.5 36.9%
under_1.5 63.1% over_2.5 14.0% under_2.5 86.0%
btts
yes 20.0% no 80.0%
total_exact
exact_0 27.6% exact_1 35.5% exact_2 22.9%
exact_3 9.8% exact_4plus 4.2%
Second half range, not a point
1×2
home 42.3% draw 36.3% away 21.4%
total
over_0.5 76.9% under_0.5 23.1% over_1.5 43.1%
under_1.5 56.9% over_2.5 18.3% under_2.5 81.7%
btts
yes 25.5% no 74.5%
Half-time / full-time range, not a point
H/H 37.4% H/D 5.1% H/A 1.5%
D/H 16.4% D/D 14.1% D/A 8.3%
A/H 2.3% A/D 4.1% A/A 10.9%
Corners range, not a point
total
over_7.5 69.9% under_7.5 30.1% over_8.5 58.4%
under_8.5 41.6% over_9.5 46.8% under_9.5 53.2%
over_10.5 35.9% under_10.5 64.1% over_11.5 26.3%
under_11.5 73.7% over_12.5 18.6% under_12.5 81.4%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 69.0% under_3.5 31.0% over_4.5 53.9%
under_4.5 46.1% over_5.5 39.6% under_5.5 60.4%
team_away
over_3.5 59.7% under_3.5 40.3% over_4.5 43.5%
under_4.5 56.5% over_5.5 29.6% under_5.5 70.4%
most
home 51.6% draw 10.3% away 38.1%
handicap
home_-3.5 23.1% away_+3.5 76.9% home_-1.5 41.3%
away_+1.5 58.7% home_-0.5 51.6% away_+0.5 48.4%
home_+0.5 61.9% away_-0.5 38.1% home_+1.5 71.4%
away_-1.5 28.6% home_+3.5 86.1% away_-3.5 13.9%
Shots range, not a point
total
over_22.5 50.7% under_22.5 49.3% over_24.5 38.7%
under_24.5 61.4% over_26.5 27.9% under_26.5 72.1%
over_28.5 19.0% under_28.5 81.0%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_10.5 61.9% under_10.5 38.1% over_12.5 45.0%
under_12.5 55.0% over_14.5 30.0% under_14.5 70.0%
team_away
over_10.5 48.2% under_10.5 51.8% over_12.5 31.3%
under_12.5 68.7% over_14.5 18.5% under_14.5 81.5%
most
home 56.7% draw 6.2% away 37.2%
handicap
home_-4.5 32.0% away_+4.5 68.0% home_-2.5 44.0%
away_+2.5 56.0% home_-0.5 56.7% away_+0.5 43.4%
home_+0.5 62.8% away_-0.5 37.2% home_+2.5 74.1%
away_-2.5 25.9% home_+4.5 83.2% away_-4.5 16.8%
Shots on target range, not a point
total
over_6.5 65.5% under_6.5 34.5% over_7.5 52.3%
under_7.5 47.7% over_8.5 39.4% under_8.5 60.6%
over_9.5 28.2% under_9.5 71.9%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_3.5 61.1% under_3.5 38.9% over_4.5 43.4%
under_4.5 56.7% over_5.5 28.1% under_5.5 71.9%
team_away
over_3.5 46.5% under_3.5 53.5% over_4.5 28.9%
under_4.5 71.1% over_5.5 16.3% under_5.5 83.7%
most
home 53.7% draw 13.1% away 33.2%
handicap
home_-2.5 28.1% away_+2.5 72.0% home_-0.5 53.7%
away_+0.5 46.3% home_+0.5 66.8% away_-0.5 33.2%
home_+2.5 86.7% away_-2.5 13.3%
Cards calibrated
total
over_2.5 85.1% under_2.5 14.9% over_3.5 69.5%
under_3.5 30.5% over_4.5 51.1% under_4.5 48.9%
over_5.5 33.7% under_5.5 66.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_1.5 65.6% under_1.5 34.4% over_2.5 38.9%
under_2.5 61.2%
team_away
over_1.5 71.0% under_1.5 29.0% over_2.5 45.3%
under_2.5 54.7%
most
home 36.2% draw 18.8% away 45.0%
handicap
home_-1.5 20.4% away_+1.5 79.6% home_-0.5 36.2%
away_+0.5 63.8% home_+0.5 55.0% away_-0.5 45.0%
home_+1.5 72.6% away_-1.5 27.4%
Fouls calibrated
total
over_20.5 81.3% under_20.5 18.7% over_22.5 70.4%
under_22.5 29.6% over_24.5 57.7% under_24.5 42.3%
odd_even
odd 50.0% even 50.0%
team_home
over_9.5 82.6% under_9.5 17.4% over_11.5 67.1%
under_11.5 32.9% over_13.5 49.1% under_13.5 50.9%
team_away
over_9.5 73.4% under_9.5 26.6% over_11.5 54.6%
under_11.5 45.4% over_13.5 36.0% under_13.5 64.0%
most
home 56.0% draw 6.5% away 37.6%
handicap
home_-3.5 36.3% away_+3.5 63.7% home_-0.5 56.0%
away_+0.5 44.0% home_+2.5 74.3% away_-2.5 25.8%
Red card range, not a point
any
yes 18.3% no 81.7%
home
yes 12.4% no 87.6%
away
yes 6.7% no 93.3%

How this works (honestly)

We are transparent about our method, our limits and how we measure performance.

What we use

Results, odds & closing prices, xG, shots, lineups, referee and schedule load.

Our method

Dixon-Coles + an xG strength model + champion/challenger selection + probability calibration + a trust gate.

What we don’t do

We do not beat the sharp market. The value is honest probabilities, No-bet calls and CLV.

Performance snapshot

Top-pick hit rate 47.7% (reliability, not edge). Calibration error 0.0095 (55261 matches).

See full track record →The Honesty Ledger →

More: Sp Braga predictions · Gil Vicente predictions · Primeira Liga

Not financial advice. No model beats the sharp closing market on public data. The value here is honest probabilities, No-bet calls, and CLV history.

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